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Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Longitudinal Business Database'

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Frequently Occurring Concepts within this Search

North American Industry Classification System - 215

Bureau of Labor Statistics - 133

Center for Economic Studies - 123

Standard Industrial Classification - 109

National Science Foundation - 104

Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board - 103

Employer Identification Numbers - 103

Internal Revenue Service - 100

Bureau of Economic Analysis - 93

National Bureau of Economic Research - 93

Annual Survey of Manufactures - 92

Ordinary Least Squares - 92

Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics - 91

Total Factor Productivity - 85

Federal Statistical Research Data Center - 83

Business Register - 82

Economic Census - 81

Census of Manufactures - 71

Business Dynamics Statistics - 70

Chicago Census Research Data Center - 63

Census Bureau Business Register - 61

Disclosure Review Board - 61

Census of Manufacturing Firms - 60

Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database - 60

Federal Reserve Bank - 59

Standard Statistical Establishment List - 55

Current Population Survey - 52

Metropolitan Statistical Area - 49

American Community Survey - 47

County Business Patterns - 45

Special Sworn Status - 39

Kauffman Foundation - 38

Alfred P Sloan Foundation - 37

Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database - 36

Social Security Administration - 36

Patent and Trademark Office - 34

Decennial Census - 33

International Trade Research Report - 33

Longitudinal Research Database - 33

Research Data Center - 33

University of Chicago - 33

Department of Homeland Security - 30

Service Annual Survey - 30

Cobb-Douglas - 29

University of Maryland - 28

Herfindahl Hirschman Index - 28

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - 26

Survey of Business Owners - 26

Quarterly Workforce Indicators - 26

Retail Trade - 26

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - 25

Federal Reserve System - 25

World Bank - 25

Small Business Administration - 24

Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Industries - 23

Wholesale Trade - 23

Michigan Institute for Teaching and Research in Economics - 23

Social Security - 23

Integrated Longitudinal Business Database - 22

Social Security Number - 20

Technical Services - 19

Survey of Industrial Research and Development - 19

Protected Identification Key - 19

Department of Economics - 19

Company Organization Survey - 19

Initial Public Offering - 18

W-2 - 18

Securities and Exchange Commission - 18

Department of Labor - 18

New York University - 18

Office of Management and Budget - 17

Individual Characteristics File - 17

World Trade Organization - 17

Business Employment Dynamics - 17

Survey of Income and Program Participation - 17

Postal Service - 16

Accommodation and Food Services - 16

Cornell University - 16

Characteristics of Business Owners - 15

Generalized Method of Moments - 15

Harmonized System - 15

Employment History File - 15

Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics - 15

Census of Retail Trade - 15

University of Michigan - 15

Business Research and Development and Innovation Survey - 14

Local Employment Dynamics - 14

American Economic Review - 14

Arts, Entertainment - 13

Annual Business Survey - 13

Environmental Protection Agency - 13

General Accounting Office - 13

American Economic Association - 13

Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs - 13

Board of Governors - 13

Core Based Statistical Area - 13

Employer Characteristics File - 13

COMPUSTAT - 13

Information and Communication Technology Survey - 13

University of California Los Angeles - 13

Review of Economics and Statistics - 13

Foreign Direct Investment - 12

European Union - 12

National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics - 12

Public Administration - 12

Unemployment Insurance - 12

Energy Information Administration - 12

NBER Summer Institute - 12

Herfindahl-Hirschman - 12

Journal of Economic Literature - 12

2010 Census - 12

Center for Research in Security Prices - 12

North American Industry Classi - 12

Management and Organizational Practices Survey - 11

Business R&D and Innovation Survey - 11

COVID-19 - 11

Department of Agriculture - 11

Kauffman Firm Survey - 11

Business Services - 11

Bureau of Labor - 11

Boston College - 11

Occupational Employment Statistics - 11

Establishment Micro Properties - 11

Harvard University - 11

Permanent Plant Number - 11

Health Care and Social Assistance - 10

National Establishment Time Series - 10

University of Toronto - 10

Stanford University - 10

National Income and Product Accounts - 10

Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies - 10

IBM - 10

Limited Liability Company - 10

Retirement History Survey - 10

Federal Trade Commission - 10

Labor Productivity - 10

Standard Occupational Classification - 9

New York Times - 9

Department of Energy - 9

Sloan Foundation - 9

Business Register Bridge - 9

Linear Probability Models - 9

Department of Commerce - 9

IQR - 9

Statistics Canada - 9

State Energy Data System - 9

Customs and Border Protection - 9

TFPQ - 9

Quarterly Journal of Economics - 9

Duke University - 9

Educational Services - 8

Professional Services - 8

Census Numident - 8

Agriculture, Forestry - 8

Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation - 8

Data Management System - 8

Business Formation Statistics - 8

George Mason University - 8

Columbia University - 8

Harvard Business School - 8

North American Free Trade Agreement - 8

Journal of Political Economy - 8

Journal of International Economics - 8

European Commission - 7

National Employer Survey - 7

Paycheck Protection Program - 7

VAR - 7

E32 - 7

Net Present Value - 7

Federal Register - 7

International Trade Commission - 7

Council of Economic Advisers - 7

National Institutes of Health - 7

Current Employment Statistics - 7

Census of Services - 7

Federal Tax Information - 7

University of Minnesota - 7

Journal of Labor Economics - 7

Journal of Economic Perspectives - 7

Securities Data Company - 7

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey - 7

Chicago RDC - 7

Wal-Mart - 7

Nonemployer Statistics - 6

CAAA - 6

AKM - 6

IZA - 6

Princeton University - 6

Federal Reserve Board of Governors - 6

Employer-Household Dynamics - 6

Labor Turnover Survey - 6

Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey - 6

Department of Justice - 6

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality - 6

Department of Defense - 6

Office of Personnel Management - 6

Master Address File - 6

Person Validation System - 6

National Ambient Air Quality Standards - 6

CDF - 6

Ohio State University - 6

United States Census Bureau - 6

MIT Press - 6

Business Master File - 6

National Longitudinal Survey of Youth - 5

Project on Impact Investments - 5

Supreme Court - 5

HHS - 5

Washington University - 5

2SLS - 5

Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research - 5

LEHD Program - 5

National Center for Health Statistics - 5

Successor Predecessor File - 5

Geographic Information Systems - 5

TFPR - 5

Probability Density Function - 5

Computer Network Use Supplement - 5

National Academy of Sciences - 5

Commodity Flow Survey - 5

PSID - 5

Center for Administrative Records Research - 5

Integrated Public Use Microdata Series - 4

Housing and Urban Development - 4

American Immigration Council - 4

Insurance Information Institute - 4

Economic Research Service - 4

Disability Insurance - 4

Indian Health Service - 4

JOLTS - 4

1940 Census - 4

Society of Labor Economists - 4

Stern School of Business - 4

Georgetown University - 4

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention - 4

Department of Housing and Urban Development - 4

Person Identification Validation System - 4

Personally Identifiable Information - 4

Yale University - 4

National Institute on Aging - 4

National Opinion Research Center - 4

Composite Person Record - 4

National Research Council - 4

BLS Handbook of Methods - 4

Pew Research Center - 4

Census 2000 - 4

Administrative Records - 4

American Housing Survey - 4

Fabricated Metal Products - 4

International Standard Industrial Classification - 4

Auxiliary Establishment Survey - 4

New England County Metropolitan - 4

Health and Retirement Study - 3

Value Added - 3

Department of Health and Human Services - 3

Brookings Institution - 3

Federal Insurance Contribution Act - 3

SSA Numident - 3

Michigan Institute for Data Science - 3

Carnegie Mellon University - 3

Regression Discontinuity Design - 3

Detailed Earnings Records - 3

Survey of Manufacturing Technology - 3

UC Berkeley - 3

Review of Economic Studies - 3

Princeton University Press - 3

Center for Administrative Records Research and Applications - 3

Electronic Data Interchange - 3

Journal of Econometrics - 3

Penn State University - 3

United Nations - 3

Boston Research Data Center - 3

John Haltiwanger - 38

Lucia Foster - 28

Ron Jarmin - 26

Javier Miranda - 24

Nathan Goldschlag - 17

Emin Dinlersoz - 15

Fariha Kamal - 11

William Kerr - 11

Teresa C. Fort - 10

J. David Brown - 10

Cheryl Grim - 10

Martha Stinson - 9

Shawn Klimek - 9

Catherine Buffington - 8

Peter Schott - 8

Nikolas Zolas - 8

Henry Hyatt - 8

C.J. Krizan - 8

Erik Brynjolfsson - 7

J. Daniel Kim - 7

John S. Earle - 7

Erika McEntarfer - 7

Xavier Giroud - 7

Natarajan Balasubramanian - 7

Steven J. Davis - 6

Nicholas Bloom - 6

Zoltan Wolf - 6

Rebecca Zarutskie - 6

Paige Ouimet - 6

Benjamin Pugsley - 6

Lars Vilhuber - 6

Cristina Tello-Trillo - 5

Zachary Kroff - 5

Emek Basker - 5

Tania Babina - 5

John M. Abowd - 5

Hyunseob Kim - 5

Mariko Sakakibara - 5

Kristin McCue - 5

Nuri Ersahin - 5

Kristina McElheran - 4

Randall Akee - 4

Sabrina T. Howell - 4

Kyle Handley - 4

Adela Luque - 4

Elisabeth Ruth Perlman - 4

Chen Yeh - 4

Jay Stewart - 4

Jerome P. Reiter - 4

Timothy Dunne - 4

Ufuk Akcigit - 4

Christopher Goetz - 4

Kevin L. McKinney - 4

Justin Pierce - 4

Holger M. Mueller - 4

Scott Ohlmacher - 4

Peter J. Klenow - 4

Matthias Kehrig - 4

J. Bradford Jensen - 4

Andrew Bernard - 4

Jagadeesh Sivadasan - 4

Gordon M Phillips - 3

Sean Wang - 3

Seula Kim - 3

Melissa Chow - 3

Ryan Monarch - 3

Wenting Ma - 3

Sharat Ganapati - 3

Parag Mahajan - 3

Joseph Staudt - 3

John Van Reenen - 3

Mee Jung Kim - 3

Kyung Min Lee - 3

Daron Acemoglu - 3

Wayne B Gray - 3

Cindy Cunningham - 3

Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia - 3

Sari Pekkala Kerr - 3

Chang-Tai Hsieh - 3

T. Kirk White - 3

Geoffrey Tate - 3

Liu Yang - 3

Elton Mykerezi - 3

Richard M. Todd - 3

Asha Sundaram - 3

Aysegül Sahin - 3

Julia I. Lane - 3

Craig Wesley Carpenter - 3

Robert Kulick - 3

Chad Syverson - 3

Mary Jialin Li - 3

Rustom M. Irani - 3

Kristin Sandusky - 3

Edward Glaeser - 3

Allan Collard-Wexler - 3

Mercedes Delgado - 3

manufacturing - 90

growth - 88

employ - 84

market - 83

recession - 77

entrepreneurship - 76

employed - 72

labor - 71

entrepreneur - 70

sector - 69

company - 68

industrial - 68

production - 66

employee - 64

workforce - 63

macroeconomic - 63

econometric - 62

enterprise - 62

revenue - 60

sale - 56

investment - 56

economist - 51

gdp - 51

innovation - 50

entrepreneurial - 48

economically - 47

payroll - 45

venture - 44

acquisition - 44

export - 43

earnings - 42

endogeneity - 40

expenditure - 39

establishment - 39

finance - 38

financial - 37

quarterly - 35

estimating - 34

employment growth - 34

patent - 33

manufacturer - 31

demand - 30

organizational - 30

multinational - 29

corporation - 29

spillover - 29

survey - 28

merger - 28

trend - 28

agency - 28

produce - 28

exporter - 27

proprietorship - 26

wholesale - 26

worker - 26

leverage - 25

import - 24

inventory - 24

patenting - 24

proprietor - 24

aggregate - 24

hiring - 23

profit - 23

technological - 22

startup - 22

investor - 21

financing - 21

productivity growth - 21

debt - 20

job - 20

subsidiary - 19

innovative - 19

productive - 19

loan - 19

corporate - 19

regional - 19

accounting - 19

competitor - 18

innovate - 18

employment dynamics - 18

incentive - 18

occupation - 18

bank - 18

report - 17

invention - 17

earner - 17

hire - 17

trading - 17

importer - 17

disclosure - 17

metropolitan - 17

firms grow - 17

efficiency - 17

statistical - 16

monopolistic - 16

profitability - 16

estimation - 16

longitudinal - 16

bankruptcy - 16

incorporated - 16

data - 16

lending - 15

shock - 15

geographically - 15

economic census - 15

exporting - 14

prospect - 14

funding - 14

growth productivity - 14

researcher - 14

stock - 14

lender - 14

foreign - 14

tariff - 14

declining - 14

decline - 14

immigrant - 14

industry productivity - 14

founder - 14

respondent - 13

equity - 13

technology - 13

area - 13

region - 13

opportunity - 13

turnover - 13

banking - 13

supplier - 13

retail - 13

regulation - 13

microdata - 13

econometrician - 13

data census - 13

exported - 12

impact - 12

wages productivity - 12

employment data - 12

borrowing - 12

younger firms - 12

warehousing - 12

salary - 12

rent - 12

sourcing - 12

firms productivity - 12

regress - 12

state - 12

business data - 12

regression - 12

census bureau - 11

retailer - 11

invest - 11

depreciation - 11

factory - 11

rural - 11

innovator - 11

employment statistics - 11

creditor - 11

firms export - 11

custom - 11

endogenous - 11

unemployed - 11

city - 11

heterogeneity - 11

corp - 11

diversification - 11

productivity dispersion - 11

startup firms - 11

population - 11

manager - 11

aggregate productivity - 11

country - 11

ownership - 11

acquirer - 11

firms patents - 10

minority - 10

innovating - 10

business startups - 10

employment estimates - 10

trends employment - 10

borrower - 10

liquidation - 10

layoff - 10

firms young - 10

exogeneity - 10

labor markets - 10

sectoral - 10

producing - 10

larger firms - 10

contract - 10

ethnicity - 10

federal - 10

geography - 10

record - 10

datasets - 10

labor productivity - 10

database - 10

census data - 10

investing - 9

patented - 9

workplace - 9

employment trends - 9

shareholder - 9

collateral - 9

growth employment - 9

international trade - 9

hispanic - 9

migrant - 9

relocation - 9

importing - 9

strategic - 9

research - 9

firm growth - 9

growth firms - 9

study - 9

monopolistically - 9

outsourcing - 9

employing - 9

wealth - 9

consumer - 9

regulatory - 9

productivity measures - 9

takeover - 9

shipment - 9

oligopolistic - 8

competitiveness - 8

patents firms - 8

startups employees - 8

bankrupt - 8

wage growth - 8

firms employment - 8

globalization - 8

development - 8

outsourced - 8

earn - 8

imported - 8

firms size - 8

subsidy - 8

credit - 8

immigration - 8

firm dynamics - 8

labor statistics - 8

emission - 8

epa - 8

census employment - 8

estimates employment - 8

externality - 8

productivity firms - 8

industry employment - 8

conglomerate - 8

census survey - 7

productivity estimates - 7

productivity shocks - 7

productivity dynamics - 7

developed - 7

patenting firms - 7

work census - 7

shift - 7

specialization - 7

compensation - 7

share - 7

fund - 7

exporters multinationals - 7

firms trade - 7

exporting firms - 7

multinational firms - 7

executive - 7

commerce - 7

retirement - 7

reallocation productivity - 7

regressing - 7

tenure - 7

union - 7

neighborhood - 7

geographic - 7

product - 7

trademark - 7

downturn - 7

employee data - 7

housing - 7

agriculture - 7

regional economic - 7

cost - 7

buyer - 7

restructuring - 7

firm innovation - 6

firm patenting - 6

factor productivity - 6

innovation productivity - 6

worker demographics - 6

borrow - 6

firms age - 6

regressors - 6

irs - 6

poverty - 6

good - 6

industry wages - 6

urban - 6

bias - 6

analysis - 6

decade - 6

competitive - 6

industry concentration - 6

firms census - 6

consolidated - 6

immigrant entrepreneurs - 6

confidentiality - 6

statistician - 6

coverage - 6

debtor - 6

matching - 6

managerial - 6

management - 6

productivity wage - 6

measures productivity - 6

institutional - 6

average - 6

technology adoption - 6

capital - 6

dispersion productivity - 6

information census - 6

businesses census - 6

census business - 6

recessionary - 6

fluctuation - 6

aging - 6

volatility - 6

aggregation - 6

pollution - 6

spending - 5

prevalence - 5

security - 5

rates productivity - 5

employees startups - 5

longitudinal employer - 5

employment distribution - 5

tax - 5

wage regressions - 5

autoregressive - 5

employment production - 5

mortgage - 5

trader - 5

restaurant - 5

job growth - 5

employment entrepreneurship - 5

migration - 5

nonemployer businesses - 5

industry variation - 5

diversify - 5

warehouse - 5

plant productivity - 5

publicly - 5

pricing - 5

imputation - 5

recession exposure - 5

rate - 5

equilibrium - 5

elasticity - 5

price - 5

use census - 5

exogenous - 5

estimator - 5

yield - 5

employment wages - 5

census research - 5

foreign trade - 5

research census - 5

censuses surveys - 5

firms exporting - 5

exports firms - 5

profitable - 5

environmental - 5

pollutant - 5

polluting - 5

residential - 5

agglomeration - 5

manufacturing productivity - 4

indian - 4

native - 4

socioeconomic - 4

disaster - 4

firms import - 4

midwest - 4

immigrant workers - 4

marketing - 4

diversified - 4

impact employment - 4

productivity increases - 4

industry growth - 4

location - 4

ethnic - 4

discrimination - 4

enforcement - 4

privacy - 4

insurance - 4

healthcare - 4

consumption - 4

electricity - 4

electricity prices - 4

department - 4

pension - 4

black - 4

employer household - 4

level productivity - 4

reporting - 4

workers earnings - 4

earnings workers - 4

plants industry - 4

productivity size - 4

local economic - 4

tech - 4

unemployment rates - 4

saving - 4

store - 4

franchising - 4

recession employment - 4

census years - 4

census use - 4

transition - 4

business survival - 4

customer - 4

gain - 4

productivity plants - 4

earnings growth - 4

wages production - 4

linked census - 4

filing - 4

utilization - 4

clerical - 4

estimates productivity - 4

practices productivity - 4

manufacturing industries - 4

trade models - 4

state employment - 4

unobserved - 4

generation - 4

information - 4

inference - 4

retailing - 4

statistical agencies - 4

resident - 4

agglomeration economies - 4

cluster - 4

regional industry - 4

regional industries - 4

2010 census - 3

oligopoly - 3

disadvantaged - 3

town - 3

advantage - 3

wages employment - 3

hurricane - 3

poorer - 3

migrate - 3

earnings age - 3

capital productivity - 3

economic growth - 3

small firms - 3

career - 3

expense - 3

grocery - 3

relocating - 3

relocate - 3

plant employment - 3

policymakers - 3

statistical disclosure - 3

public - 3

medicare - 3

energy prices - 3

renewable - 3

policy - 3

mandate - 3

employment count - 3

productivity differences - 3

regulation productivity - 3

employment earnings - 3

earnings employees - 3

effect wages - 3

wage data - 3

firms plants - 3

productivity analysis - 3

owner - 3

industries estimate - 3

technical - 3

industrialized - 3

taxation - 3

asset - 3

university - 3

white - 3

forecast - 3

establishments data - 3

asian - 3

subsidized - 3

risk - 3

woman - 3

increase employment - 3

earnings inequality - 3

export growth - 3

trends labor - 3

survey data - 3

surveys censuses - 3

employment measures - 3

analyst - 3

agricultural - 3

substitute - 3

franchise - 3

model - 3

supermarket - 3

empirical - 3

valuation - 3

demography - 3

plant investment - 3

environmental regulation - 3

Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 375


  • Working Paper

    Tapping Business and Household Surveys to Sharpen Our View of Work from Home

    June 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-36

    Timely business-level measures of work from home (WFH) are scarce for the U.S. economy. We review prior survey-based efforts to quantify the incidence and character of WFH and describe new questions that we developed and fielded for the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). Drawing on more than 150,000 firm-level responses to the BTOS, we obtain four main findings. First, nearly a third of businesses have employees who work from home, with tremendous variation across sectors. The share of businesses with WFH employees is nearly ten times larger in the Information sector than in Accommodation and Food Services. Second, employees work from home about 1 day per week, on average, and businesses expect similar WFH levels in five years. Third, feasibility aside, businesses' largest concern with WFH relates to productivity. Seven percent of businesses find that onsite work is more productive, while two percent find that WFH is more productive. Fourth, there is a low level of tracking and monitoring of WFH activities, with 70% of firms reporting they do not track employee days in the office and 75% reporting they do not monitor employees when they work from home. These lessons serve as a starting point for enhancing WFH-related content in the American Community Survey and other household surveys.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Multi-Market Contact in International Trade; Evidence from U.S. Battery Exporters

    May 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-32

    When competitors compete in more than one market they are said to have multi-market contact (MMC). Firms with MMC are more likely collude to avoid cross-market retaliation. This paper investigates the impact of MMC among U.S. battery exporters on the prices they set in foreign markets using confidential export transaction data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. The ability of firms to exploit MMC for collusive gain in international markets can be both detrimental to import-dependent consumers and harder for anti-trust authorities to detect. Motivated by litigation finding evidence of collusive behavior by multi-national battery manufacturers, MMC has an upward effect on export prices set by U.S. battery exporters. These results are robust across different panel regression specifications using different measures of MMC.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Property Rights, Firm Size and Investments in Innovation: Evidence from the America Invents Act

    May 2025

    Authors: James Driver

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-31

    I analyze whether a change in patent systems differentially affects firm-level innovation investments at patent-valuing firms of different sizes. Using legally required, economically representative, U.S. Census Bureau microdata, I separate firms into groups based on a firm's response to a question asking it to rank the degree of patent importance to its business and firm-size. I then measure how firms' innovation inputs/outputs respond to the America Invents Act (AIA). Results show the AIA reduced innovation investments at smaller, patent-valuing firms while increasing innovation investments at larger, patent-valuing firms, highlighting differential firm-size effects of patent policy and policy's importance to investments.
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  • Working Paper

    Impact Investing and Worker Outcomes

    May 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-30

    Impact investors claim to distinguish themselves from traditional venture capital and growth equity investors by also pursuing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives. Whether they successfully do so in practice is unclear. We use confidential Census Bureau microdata to assess worker outcomes across portfolio companies. Impact investors are more likely than other private equity firms to fund businesses in economically disadvantaged areas, and the performance of these companies lags behind those held by traditional private investors. We show that post-funding impact-backed firms are more likely to hire minorities, unskilled workers, and individuals with lower historical earnings, perhaps reflecting the higher representation of minorities in top positions. They also allocate wage increases more favorably to minorities and rank-and-file workers than VC-backed firms. Our results are consistent with impact investors and their portfolio companies acting according to non-pecuniary social goals and thus are not consistent with mere window dressing or cosmetic changes.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    The Rising Returns to R&D: Ideas Are Not Getting Harder to Find

    May 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-29

    R&D investment has grown robustly, yet aggregate productivity growth has stagnated. Is this because 'ideas are getting harder to find'? This paper uses micro-data from the US Census Bureau to explore the relationship between R&D and productivity in the manufacturing sector from 1976 to 2018. We find that both the elasticity of output (TFP) with respect to R&D and the marginal returns to R&D have risen sharply. Exploring factors affecting returns, we conclude that R&D obsolescence rates must have risen. Using a novel estimation approach, we find consistent evidence of sharply rising technological rivalry. These findings suggest that R&D has become more effective at finding productivity-enhancing ideas but these ideas may also render rivals' technologies obsolete, making innovations more transient.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    The Rise of Industrial AI in America: Microfoundations of the Productivity J-curve(s)

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-27

    We examine the prevalence and productivity dynamics of artificial intelligence (AI) in American manufacturing. Working with the Census Bureau to collect detailed large-scale data for 2017 and 2021, we focus on AI-related technologies with industrial applications. We find causal evidence of J-curve-shaped returns, where short-term performance losses precede longer-term gains. Consistent with costly adjustment taking place within core production processes, industrial AI use increases work-in-progress inventory, investment in industrial robots, and labor shedding, while harming productivity and profitability in the short run. These losses are unevenly distributed, concentrating among older businesses while being mitigated by growth-oriented business strategies and within-firm spillovers. Dynamics, however, matter: earlier (pre-2017) adopters exhibit stronger growth over time, conditional on survival. Notably, among older establishments, abandonment of structured production-management practices accounts for roughly one-third of these losses, revealing a specific channel through which intangible factors shape AI's impact. Taken together, these results provide novel evidence on the microfoundations of technology J-curves, identifying mechanisms and illuminating how and why they differ across firm types. These findings extend our understanding of modern General Purpose Technologies, explaining why their economic impact'exemplified here by AI'may initially disappoint, particularly in contexts dominated by older, established firms.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Startup Dynamics: Transitioning from Nonemployer Firms to Employer Firms, Survival, and Job Creation

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-26

    Understanding the dynamics of startup businesses' growth, exit, and survival is crucial for fostering entrepreneurship. Among the nearly 30 million registered businesses in the United States, fewer than six million have employees beyond the business owners. This research addresses the gap in understanding which companies transition to employer businesses and the mechanisms behind this process. Job creation remains a critical concern for policymakers, researchers, and advocacy groups. This study aims to illuminate the transition from non-employer businesses to employer businesses and explore job creation by new startups. Leveraging newly available microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau, we seek to gain deeper insights into firm survival, job creation by startups, and the transition from non-employer to employer status.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Place Based Economic Development and Tribal Casinos

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-24

    Tribal lands in the U.S. have historically experienced some of the worst economic conditions in the nation. We review some existing research on the effect of American Indian tribal casinos on various measures of local economic development. This is an industry that began in the early 1990s and currently generates more than $40 billion annually. We also review the state of the literature on the effects of casino operations on communities in or adjacent to tribal areas. Using a new dataset linking individual and enterprise-level data longitudinally, this study examines the industry- and location-specific impacts of tribal casino operations. We focus in particular on the employment of American Indians. We document positive flows from unemployment and non-casino geographies to work in sectors related to casino operations. Tribal casinos differ from other standard place-based economic development projects in that they are focused on a single industry; we discuss these differences and note that some of the positive spillover effects may be similar to other, more standard place-based policies. Finally, we discuss additional and open-ended questions for future research on this topic.
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  • Working Paper

    Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-21

    Relatively flat US output growth versus rising numbers of US researchers is often interpreted as evidence that "ideas are getting harder to find." We build a new 46-year panel tracking the universe of U.S. firms' patenting to investigate the micro underpinnings of this claim, separately examining the relationships between research inputs and ideas (patents) versus ideas and growth. Over our sample period, we find that researchers' patenting productivity is increasing, there is little evidence of any secular decline in high-quality patenting common to all firms, and the link between patents and growth is present, differs by type of idea, and is fairly stable. On the other hand, we find strong evidence of secular decreases in output unrelated to patenting, suggesting an important role for other factors. Together, these results invite renewed empirical and theoretical attention to the impact of ideas on growth. To that end, our patent-firm bridge, which will be available to researchers with approved access, is used to produce new, public-use statistics on the Business Dynamics of Patenting Firms (BDS-PF).
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  • Working Paper

    The Composition of Firm Workforces from 2006'2022: Findings from the Business Dynamics Statistics of Human Capital Experimental Product

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-20

    We introduce the Business Dynamics Statistics of Human Capital (BDS-HC) tables, a new Census Bureau experimental product that provides public-use statistics on the workforce composition of firms and its relationship to business dynamics. We use administrative W-2 filings to combine population-level worker demographic data with longitudinal business data to estimate the demographic and educational composition of nearly all non-farm employer businesses in the United States between 2006 and 2022. We use this newly constructed data to document the evolution of employment, entry, and exit of employers based on their workforce compositions. We also provide new statistics on the interaction between firm and worker characteristics, including the composition of workers at startup firms. We find substantial changes between 2006 and 2022 in the distribution of employers along several dimensions, primarily driven by changing workforce compositions within continuing firms rather than the reallocation of employment between firms. We also highlight systematic differences in the business dynamics of firms by their workforce compositions, suggesting that different groups of workers face different economic environments due to their employers.
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