Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Disclosure Review Board'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 166
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Working PaperTechnology-Driven Market Concentration through Idea Allocation
December 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-78
Using a newly-created measure of technology novelty, this paper identifies periods with and without technology breakthroughs from the 1980s to the 2020s in the US. It is found that market concentration decreases at the advent of revolutionary technologies. We establish a theory addressing inventors' decisions to establish new firms or join incumbents of selected sizes, yielding two key predictions: (1) A higher share of inventors opt for new firms during periods of heightened technology novelty. (2). There is positive assortative matching between idea quality and firm size if inventors join incumbents. Both predictions align with empirical findings and collectively contribute to a reduction in market concentration when groundbreaking technologies occur. Quantitative analysis shows the overall slowdown in technological breakthroughs can capture 95.9% of the rising trend in market concentration and the correlation between the model-generated and the actual detrended market concentration is 0.910.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperSpecialization in a Knowledge Economy
December 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-77
Using firm-level data from the US Census Longitudinal Business Database (LBD), this paper exhibits novel evidence about a wave of specialization experienced by US firms in the 1980s and 1990s. Specifically: (i) Firms, especially innovating ones, decreased production scope, i.e., the number of industries in which they produce. (ii) Innovation and production separated, with small firms specializing in innovation and large firms in production. Higher patent trading efficiency and stronger patent protection are proposed to explain these phenomena. An endogenous growth model is developed with potential mismatches between innovation and production. Calibrating the model suggests that increased trading efficiency and better patent protection can explain 20% of the observed production scope decrease and 108% of the innovation and production separation. They result in a 0.64 percent point increase in the annual economic growth rate. Empirical analyses provide evidence of causality from pro-patent reforms in the 1980s to the two specialization patterns.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperGifted Identification Across the Distribution of Family Income
December 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-73
Currently, 6.1 percent of K-12 students in the United States receive gifted education. Using education and IRS data that provide information on students and their family income, we show pronounced differences in who schools identify as gifted across the distribution of family income. Under 4 percent of students in the lowest income percentile are identified as gifted, compared with 20 percent of those in the top income percentile. Income-based differences persist after accounting for student test scores and exist across students of different sexes and racial/ethnic groups, underscoring the importance of family resources for gifted identification in schools.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperManufacturing Dispersion: How Data Cleaning Choices Affect Measured Misallocation and Productivity Growth in the Annual Survey of Manufactures
September 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-67
Measurement of dispersion of productivity levels and productivity growth rates across businesses is a key input for answering a variety of important economic questions, such as understanding the allocation of economic inputs across businesses and over time. While item nonresponse is a readily quantifiable issue, we show there is also misreporting by respondents in the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM). Aware of these measurement issues, the Census Bureau edits and imputes survey responses before tabulation and dissemination. However, edit and imputation methods that are suitable for publishing aggregate totals may not be suitable for estimating other measures from the microdata. We show that the methods used dramatically affect estimates of productivity dispersion, allocative efficiency, and aggregate productivity growth. Using a Bayesian approach for editing and imputation, we model the joint distributions of all variables needed to estimate these measures, and we quantify the degree of uncertainty in the estimates due to imputations for faulty or missing data.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperLODES Design and Methodology Report: Methodology Version 7
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-52
The purpose of this report is to document the important features of Version 7 of the LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) processing system. This includes data sources, data processing methodology, confidentiality protection methodology, some quality measures, and a high-level description of the published data. The intended audience for this document includes LODES data users, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Partnership members, U.S. Census Bureau management, program quality auditors, and current and future research and development staff members.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperMeasuring the Business Dynamics of Firms that Received Pandemic Relief Funding: Findings from a New Experimental BDS Data Product
January 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-05
This paper describes a new experimental data product from the U.S. Census Bureau's Center for Economic Studies: the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) of firms that received Small Business Administration (SBA) pandemic funding. This new product, BDS-SBA COVID, expands the set of currently published BDS tables by linking loan-level program participation data from SBA to internal business microdata at the U.S. Census Bureau. The linked programs include the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), COVID Economic Injury Disaster Loans (COVID-EIDL), the Restaurant Revitalization Fund (RRF), and Shuttered Venue Operators Grants (SVOG). Using these linked data, we tabulate annual firm and establishment counts, measures of job creation and destruction, and establishment entry and exit for recipients and non-recipients of program funds in 2020-2021. We further stratify the tables by timing of loan receipt and loan size, and business characteristics including geography, industry sector, firm size, and firm age. We find that for the youngest firms that received PPP, the timing of receipt mattered. Receiving an early loan correlated with a lower job destruction rate compared to non-recipients and businesses that received a later loan. For the smallest firms, simply participating in PPP was associated with lower employment loss. The timing of PPP receipt was also related to establishment exit rates. For businesses of nearly all ages, those that received an early loan exited at a lower rate in 2022 than later loan recipients.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperInvestigating the Effect of Innovation Activities of Firms on Innovation Performance: Does Firm Size Matter?
January 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-04
Understanding the relationship between a firm's innovation activities and its performance has been of great interest to management scholars. While the literature on innovation activities is vast, there is a dearth of studies investigating the effect of key innovation activities of the firm on innovation outcomes in a single study, and whether their effects are dependent on the nature of firms, specifically firm size. Drawing from a longitudinal dataset from the Business Research & Development and Innovation Survey (BRDIS), and informed by contingency theory and resource orchestration theory, we examine the relationship between a firm's innovation activities - including its Research & Development (R&D) investment, securing patents, collaborative R&D, R&D toward new business areas, and grants for R&D - and its product innovation and process innovation. We also investigate whether these relationships are contingent on firm size. Consistent with contingency theory, we find a significant difference between large firms and small firms regarding how they enhance product innovation and process innovation. Large firms can improve product innovation by securing patents through applications and issuances, coupled with active participation in collaborative R&D efforts. Conversely, smaller firms concentrate their efforts on the number of patents applied for, directing R&D efforts toward new business areas, and often leveraging grants for R&D efforts. To achieve process innovation, a similar dichotomy emerges. Larger firms demonstrate a commitment to securing patents, engage in R&D efforts tailored to new business areas, and actively collaborate with external entities on R&D efforts. In contrast, smaller firms primarily focus on securing patents and channel their R&D efforts toward new business pursuits. This nuanced exploration highlights the varied strategies employed by large and small firms in navigating the intricate landscape of both product and process innovation. The results shed light on specific innovation activities as antecedents of innovation outcomes and demonstrate how the effectiveness of such assets is contingent upon firm size.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEITC Participation Results and IRS-Census Match Methodology, Tax Year 2021
December 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-75
The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), enacted in 1975, offers a refundable tax credit to low income working families. This paper provides taxpayer and dollar participation estimates for the EITC covering tax year 2021. The estimates derive from an approach that relies on linking the 2022 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) to IRS administrative data. This approach, called the Exact Match, uses survey data to identify EITC eligible taxpayers and IRS administrative data to indicate which eligible taxpayers claimed and received the credit. Overall in tax year 2021 eligible taxpayers participated in the EITC program at a rate of 78 percent while dollar participation was 81 percent.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Privacy-Protected Gridded Environmental Impacts Frame
December 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-74
This paper introduces the Gridded Environmental Impacts Frame (Gridded EIF), a novel privacy-protected dataset derived from the U.S. Census Bureau's confidential Environmental Impacts Frame (EIF) microdata infrastructure. The EIF combines comprehensive administrative records and survey data on the U.S. population with high-resolution geospatial information on environmental hazards. While access to the EIF is restricted due to the confidential nature of the underlying data, the Gridded EIF offers a broader research community the opportunity to glean insights from the data while preserving confidentiality. We describe the data and privacy protection process, and offer guidance on appropriate usage, presenting practical applications.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Census Historical Environmental Impacts Frame
October 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-66
The Census Bureau's Environmental Impacts Frame (EIF) is a microdata infrastructure that combines individual-level information on residence, demographics, and economic characteristics with environmental amenities and hazards from 1999 through the present day. To better understand the long-run consequences and intergenerational effects of exposure to a changing environment, we expand the EIF by extending it backward to 1940. The Historical Environmental Impacts Frame (HEIF) combines the Census Bureau's historical administrative data, publicly available 1940 address information from the 1940 Decennial Census, and historical environmental data. This paper discusses the creation of the HEIF as well as the unique challenges that arise with using the Census Bureau's historical administrative data.View Full Paper PDF
