Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'fiscal'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 15
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Working PaperForeign Direct Investment, Geography, and Welfare
September 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-45
We study the impact of FDI on domestic welfare using a model of internal trade with variable markups that incorporates intranational transport costs. The model allows us to disentangle the various channels through which FDI affects welfare. We apply the model to the case of Ethiopian manufacturing, which received considerable amounts of FDI during our study period. We find substantial gains from the presence of foreign firms, both in the local market and in other connected markets in the country. FDI, however, resulted in a modest worsening of allocative efficiency because foreign firms tend to have significantly higher markups than domestic firms. We report consistent findings from our empirical analysis, which utilises microdata on manufacturing firms, information on FDI projects, and geospatial data on improvements in the road network.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Demographics of the Recipients of the First Economic Impact Payment
May 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-24
Starting in April 2020, the federal government began to distribute Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) in response to the health and economic crisis caused by COVID-19. More than 160 million payments were disbursed. We produce statistics concerning the receipt of EIPs by individuals and households across key demographic subgroups. We find that payments went out particularly quickly to households with children and lower-income households, and the rate of receipt was quite high for individuals over age 60, likely due to a coordinated effort to issue payments automatically to Social Security recipients. We disaggregate statistics by race/ethnicity to document whether racial disparities arose in EIP disbursement. Receipt rates were high overall, with limited differences across racial/ethnic subgroups. We provide a set of detailed counts in tables for use by the public.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperCombining Rules and Discretion in Economic Development Policy: Evidence on the Impacts of the California Competes Tax Credit
June 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-13
We evaluate the effects of one of a new generation of economic development programs, the California Competes Tax Credit (CCTC), on local job creation. Incorporating perceived best practices from previous initiatives, the CCTC combines explicit eligibility thresholds with some discretion on the part of program officials to select tax credit recipients. The structure and implementation of the program facilitates rigorous evaluation. We exploit detailed data on accepted and rejected applicants to the CCTC, including information on scoring of applicants with regard to program goals and funding decisions, together with restricted access American Community Survey (ACS) data on local economic conditions. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that each CCTC-incentivized job in a census tract increases the number of individuals working in that tract by over two ' a significant local multiplier. We also explore the program's distributional implications and impacts by industry. We find that CCTC awards increase employment among workers residing in both high income and low income communities, and that the local multipliers are larger for non-manufacturing awards than for manufacturing awards.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperUnited States Earnings Dynamics: Inequality, Mobility, and Volatility
September 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-29
Using data from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure files, we study changes over time and across sub-national populations in the distribution of real labor earnings. We consider four large MSAs (Detroit, Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco) for the period 1998 to 2017, with particular attention paid to the subperiods before, during, and after the Great Recession. For the four large MSAs we analyze, there are clear national trends represented in each of the local areas, the most prominent of which is the increase in the share of earnings accruing to workers at the top of the earnings distribution in 2017 compared with 1998. However, the magnitude of these trends varies across MSAs, with New York and San Francisco showing relatively large increases and Los Angeles somewhere in the middle relative to Detroit whose total real earnings distribution is relatively stable over the period. Our results contribute to the emerging literature on differences between national and regional economic outcomes, exemplifying what will be possible with a new data exploration tool'the Earnings and Mobility Statistics (EAMS) web application'currently under development at the U.S. Census Bureau.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperWhy are employer-sponsored health insurance premiums higher in the public sector than in the private sector?
February 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-03
In this article, we examine the factors explaining differences in public and private sector health insurance premiums for enrollees with single coverage. We use data from the 2000 and 2014 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Insurance Component, along with decomposition methods, to explore the relative explanatory importance of plan features and benefit generosity, such as deductibles and other forms of cost sharing, basic employee characteristics (e.g., age, gender, and education), and unionization. While there was little difference in public and private sector premiums in 2000, by 2014, public premiums had exceeded private premiums by 14 to 19 percent. We find that differences in plan characteristics played a substantial role in explaining premium differences in 2014, but they were not the only, or even the most important, factor. Differences in worker age, gender, marital status, and educational attainment were also important factors, as was workforce unionization.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperIntroduction of Head Start and Maternal Labor Supply: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-35
I use the non-public decennial censuses in 1970 to investigate the effect of the Head Start program on maternal labor supply and schooling in its early years. I exploit a discontinuity in county-level Head Start funding beginning in the late 1960s to explore differences in countylevel maternal employment and maternal schooling. The results provide suggestive evidence that the more availability of Head Start led to an increase the nursery school enrollment of children and a decrease in maternal labor supply. In addition, the ITT estimates imply a relatively large, negative effect of enrollment on maternal labor supply. However, the estimates are somewhat sensitive to addition of covariates and the standard errors are also large to draw firm inferences.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperHUMAN CAPITAL LOSS IN CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
July 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-37
This paper quantifies the 'human costs of bankruptcy' by estimating employee wage losses induced by the bankruptcy filing of employers using employee-employer matched data from the U.S. Census Bureau's LEHD program. We find that employee wages begin to deteriorate one year prior to bankruptcy. One year after bankruptcy, the magnitude of the decline in annual wages is 30% of pre-bankruptcy wages. The decrease in wages persists (at least) for five years post-bankruptcy. The present value of wage losses summed up to five years after bankruptcy amounts to 29-49% of the average pre-bankruptcy market value of firm. Furthermore, we find that the ex-ante wage premium to compensate for the ex-post wage loss due to bankruptcy can be of similar magnitude with that of the tax benefits of debt.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperSmall Homes, Public Schools, and Property Tax Capitalization
March 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-04
Efforts to estimate the degree to which local property taxes are capitalized into house values are complicated by any spurious correlation between property taxes and unobserved public services. One public service of particular interest is the provision of local public schools. Not only do public schools bulk large in the local property tax bill, but the inherent difficulty in measuring school quality has potentially undermined earlier attempts at achieving unbiased estimates of property tax capitalization. This particular problem has been of special concern since Oates' (1969) seminal paper. We sidestep the problem of omitted or misspecified measures of school quality by focusing on a segment of the housing market that likely places little-to-no value on school quality: small homes. Because few households residing in small homes have public school children, we anticipate that variations in their value does not account for differentials in public school quality. Using restricted-access microdata provided by the U.S. Census, and a quasi- experimental identification strategy, we estimate that local property taxes are nearly fully capitalized into the prices of small homes.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Life Cycle of Plants in India and Mexico
September 2012
Working Paper Number:
CES-12-20
In the U.S., the average 40 year old plant employs almost eight times as many workers as the typical plant five years or younger. In contrast, surviving Indian plants exhibit little growth in terms of either employment or output. Mexico is intermediate to India and the U.S. in these respects: the average 40 year old Mexican plant employs twice as many workers as an average new plant. This pattern holds across many industries and for formal and informal establishments alike. The divergence in plant dynamics suggests lower investments by Indian and Mexican plants in process efficiency, quality, and in accessing markets at home and abroad. In simple GE models, we find that the difference in life cycle dynamics could lower aggregate manufacturing productivity on the order of 25% in India and Mexico relative to the U.S.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperA Guide to the MEPS-IC Government List Sample Microdata
September 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-27
The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Insurance Component (MEPS-IC) is conducted to provide nationally representative estimates on employer sponsored health insurance. MEPSIC data are collected from private sector employers, as well as state and local governments. While similar information is gathered from these two sectors, differences in the survey process exist. The goal of this paper is to provide details on the public sector including types of state and local government employers, sample design, general information on the data collected in the MEPS-IC, and additional sources of information.View Full Paper PDF
