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Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'manufacturing'

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Center for Economic Studies - 120

Annual Survey of Manufactures - 102

Standard Industrial Classification - 92

Longitudinal Business Database - 90

North American Industry Classification System - 85

Longitudinal Research Database - 83

Census of Manufactures - 79

Total Factor Productivity - 69

National Bureau of Economic Research - 67

Bureau of Economic Analysis - 67

Ordinary Least Squares - 65

Bureau of Labor Statistics - 62

National Science Foundation - 62

Census of Manufacturing Firms - 45

Economic Census - 45

Cobb-Douglas - 41

Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board - 32

Federal Statistical Research Data Center - 28

Federal Reserve Bank - 27

Metropolitan Statistical Area - 26

Standard Statistical Establishment List - 24

Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database - 24

Internal Revenue Service - 23

Chicago Census Research Data Center - 23

Business Register - 21

Patent and Trademark Office - 20

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - 19

Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database - 19

Department of Commerce - 18

Employer Identification Numbers - 17

Survey of Manufacturing Technology - 17

Federal Reserve System - 16

Census Bureau Business Register - 16

World Bank - 16

Special Sworn Status - 16

Current Population Survey - 15

Disclosure Review Board - 15

Environmental Protection Agency - 15

Research Data Center - 15

Permanent Plant Number - 15

County Business Patterns - 14

Business Dynamics Statistics - 14

American Economic Review - 14

University of Chicago - 14

Harmonized System - 13

Kauffman Foundation - 13

Journal of Economic Literature - 13

Service Annual Survey - 13

Office of Management and Budget - 12

Generalized Method of Moments - 12

Labor Productivity - 11

Computer Network Use Supplement - 11

Electronic Data Interchange - 11

Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies - 10

Harvard University - 10

Herfindahl Hirschman Index - 10

Quarterly Journal of Economics - 10

Information and Communication Technology Survey - 10

Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures - 10

Board of Governors - 9

World Trade Organization - 9

Business Research and Development and Innovation Survey - 9

Value Added - 9

University of Maryland - 9

Department of Homeland Security - 9

Company Organization Survey - 9

Management and Organizational Practices Survey - 9

TFPQ - 9

International Standard Industrial Classification - 9

American Economic Association - 9

Michigan Institute for Teaching and Research in Economics - 9

Small Business Administration - 9

Review of Economics and Statistics - 9

Fabricated Metal Products - 8

Survey of Industrial Research and Development - 8

Business R&D and Innovation Survey - 8

International Trade Commission - 8

New York University - 8

IBM - 8

Wholesale Trade - 8

Computer Aided Design - 8

Administrative Records - 8

New England County Metropolitan - 8

European Union - 7

Commodity Flow Survey - 7

Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics - 7

NBER Summer Institute - 7

Census of Retail Trade - 7

Sloan Foundation - 7

TFPR - 7

Foreign Direct Investment - 7

North American Industry Classi - 7

North American Free Trade Agreement - 7

Journal of Political Economy - 7

MIT Press - 7

National Ambient Air Quality Standards - 7

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey - 7

Insurance Information Institute - 7

Social Security Administration - 7

Energy Information Administration - 6

Department of Economics - 6

University of Toronto - 6

IQR - 6

National Income and Product Accounts - 6

Herfindahl-Hirschman - 6

Review of Economic Studies - 6

Journal of Economic Perspectives - 6

Retirement History Survey - 6

Yale University - 6

2010 Census - 6

Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Industries - 6

National Research Council - 6

American Statistical Association - 6

United Nations - 5

Customs and Border Protection - 5

Alfred P Sloan Foundation - 5

Annual Business Survey - 5

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - 5

American Community Survey - 5

Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation - 5

University of Michigan - 5

Technical Services - 5

Retail Trade - 5

Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey - 5

Journal of Econometrics - 5

Cambridge University Press - 5

Wal-Mart - 5

Heckscher-Ohlin - 5

Boston Research Data Center - 5

PAOC - 5

United States Census Bureau - 5

Department of Agriculture - 5

Federal Register - 4

National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics - 4

National Establishment Time Series - 4

VAR - 4

Business Employment Dynamics - 4

Postal Service - 4

Census of Services - 4

Occupational Employment Statistics - 4

Core Based Statistical Area - 4

Stanford University - 4

Princeton University Press - 4

COMPUSTAT - 4

UC Berkeley - 4

Department of Defense - 4

Columbia University - 4

University of California Los Angeles - 4

Statistics Canada - 4

Journal of International Economics - 4

Social Security - 4

Establishment Micro Properties - 4

Paycheck Protection Program - 4

COVID-19 - 3

Department of Energy - 3

E32 - 3

Penn State University - 3

2SLS - 3

Current Employment Statistics - 3

Securities and Exchange Commission - 3

Quarterly Workforce Indicators - 3

D22 - 3

Probability Density Function - 3

Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs - 3

Limited Liability Company - 3

Princeton University - 3

National Employer Survey - 3

Regional Economic Information System - 3

Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research - 3

Schools Under Registration Review - 3

Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas - 3

Federal Trade Commission - 3

Toxics Release Inventory - 3

Bureau of Labor - 3

New York Times - 3

Auxiliary Establishment Survey - 3

production - 169

industrial - 134

growth - 93

produce - 76

manufacturer - 75

sector - 66

sale - 64

econometric - 62

export - 54

market - 52

labor - 49

innovation - 48

expenditure - 46

technological - 44

macroeconomic - 44

enterprise - 43

demand - 41

company - 40

technology - 39

gdp - 39

revenue - 36

investment - 35

productivity growth - 35

productive - 34

factory - 34

industry productivity - 33

import - 32

efficiency - 32

economist - 31

product - 28

exporter - 27

recession - 27

organizational - 27

estimating - 26

economically - 25

multinational - 24

employ - 24

inventory - 24

patent - 23

acquisition - 22

producing - 22

exporting - 21

estimation - 20

productivity measures - 20

merger - 20

monopolistic - 19

growth productivity - 19

endogeneity - 19

workforce - 19

profit - 19

establishment - 19

profitability - 18

payroll - 18

tariff - 18

plant productivity - 18

plants industry - 18

spillover - 17

employment growth - 17

wholesale - 17

employed - 16

patenting - 16

aggregate - 16

labor productivity - 16

commodity - 15

exported - 15

invention - 15

employee - 15

specialization - 15

firms productivity - 15

cost - 15

productivity plants - 15

shipment - 14

productivity estimates - 14

depreciation - 14

regional - 14

competitor - 14

earnings - 14

regression - 14

pollution - 14

productivity dynamics - 13

quarterly - 13

monopolistically - 13

industry variation - 13

consumption - 13

supplier - 13

measures productivity - 13

regulation - 13

emission - 13

environmental - 13

factor productivity - 12

innovate - 12

outsourcing - 12

commerce - 12

industry growth - 12

sectoral - 12

manufacturing industries - 12

agriculture - 12

polluting - 12

international trade - 11

importer - 11

manufacturing productivity - 11

entrepreneurship - 11

region - 11

industry concentration - 11

productivity dispersion - 11

manufacturing plants - 11

tech - 11

quantity - 11

epa - 11

pollutant - 11

trading - 10

worker - 10

outsourced - 10

subsidiary - 10

diversification - 10

aggregate productivity - 10

productivity differences - 10

trend - 10

technology adoption - 10

regulatory - 10

plants industries - 10

competitiveness - 10

plant - 10

price - 9

firms export - 9

sourcing - 9

wages productivity - 9

globalization - 9

corporation - 9

survey - 9

productivity increases - 9

firms grow - 9

innovator - 9

geographically - 9

productivity analysis - 9

productivity firms - 9

technical - 9

estimates productivity - 9

agricultural - 9

incorporated - 9

econometrically - 9

job - 8

foreign - 8

entrepreneurial - 8

entrepreneur - 8

statistical - 8

retailer - 8

area - 8

externality - 8

productivity size - 8

management - 8

analysis productivity - 8

innovative - 8

environmental regulation - 8

impact - 8

imported - 7

innovation productivity - 7

productivity impacts - 7

industry heterogeneity - 7

growth employment - 7

warehousing - 7

occupation - 7

corporate - 7

retail - 7

research - 7

firms plants - 7

report - 7

industries estimate - 7

dispersion productivity - 7

managerial - 7

estimates employment - 7

spending - 7

industrial classification - 7

classification - 7

state - 7

performance - 7

pollution abatement - 7

heterogeneity - 7

metropolitan - 7

efficient - 7

computer - 7

plants firms - 7

importing - 6

productivity shocks - 6

innovating - 6

exogeneity - 6

labor markets - 6

custom - 6

firms trade - 6

location - 6

country - 6

relocation - 6

reallocation productivity - 6

warehouse - 6

plant employment - 6

firms patents - 6

patented - 6

patents firms - 6

stock - 6

regulation productivity - 6

oligopolistic - 6

accounting - 6

industry employment - 6

industrialized - 6

turnover - 6

export growth - 6

manager - 6

proprietorship - 6

industry output - 6

profitable - 6

firms employment - 6

productivity wage - 6

pricing - 6

strategic - 6

regional economic - 6

ownership - 6

good - 6

polluting industries - 6

expense - 6

textile - 6

observed productivity - 6

rates productivity - 5

employment production - 5

employment dynamics - 5

shift - 5

multinational firms - 5

midwest - 5

job growth - 5

proprietor - 5

competitive - 5

microdata - 5

labor statistics - 5

level productivity - 5

employment estimates - 5

study - 5

decline - 5

foreign trade - 5

utilization - 5

classified - 5

practices productivity - 5

trademark - 5

longitudinal - 5

firm growth - 5

estimates production - 5

data - 5

analysis - 5

costs pollution - 5

aggregation - 5

exporters multinationals - 4

trader - 4

export market - 4

regressors - 4

investment productivity - 4

prospect - 4

exporting firms - 4

corp - 4

consolidated - 4

regressing - 4

patenting firms - 4

estimator - 4

respondent - 4

firms census - 4

oligopoly - 4

classifying - 4

declining - 4

growth firms - 4

development - 4

developed - 4

endogenous - 4

consumer - 4

economic census - 4

trade models - 4

partnership - 4

prices products - 4

abatement expenditures - 4

environmental expenditures - 4

estimates pollution - 4

agglomeration economies - 4

agglomeration - 4

regional industry - 4

regional industries - 4

capital - 4

retailing - 4

refinery - 4

gain - 4

industry wages - 4

buyer - 4

mergers acquisitions - 4

restructuring - 4

acquirer - 4

owner - 4

subsidy - 3

firms import - 3

startup - 3

salary - 3

regress - 3

venture - 3

finance - 3

invest - 3

cluster - 3

share - 3

geography - 3

network - 3

average - 3

incentive - 3

wage growth - 3

wages production - 3

wage industries - 3

record - 3

younger firms - 3

substitute - 3

exogenous - 3

local economic - 3

farm - 3

meat - 3

firm patenting - 3

employment changes - 3

regulated - 3

firms exporting - 3

fiscal - 3

urbanization - 3

advantage - 3

capital productivity - 3

researcher - 3

city - 3

takeover - 3

econometrician - 3

heterogeneous - 3

federal - 3

rural - 3

plant investment - 3

small firms - 3

chemical - 3

investing - 3

fuel - 3

Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 244


  • Working Paper

    An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments' Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains

    June 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-44

    Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments' imports and exports. We find that for every dollar of exports, imported inputs represent 13 cents in 2002 and 20 cents by 2017. Examining GVC trade flows in a gravity framework, we find that these flows are higher within 'round-trip' (input and output market is the same) linkages, regional trade agreements, and multinational firm boundaries. The strong complementarities between input and output markets are muted by the proportionality assumptions embedded in global input-output tables. Finally, with an off-the-shelf model, we show the round-trip results can be obtained when firm-specific sourcing and exporting fixed costs are linked.
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  • Working Paper

    Firm Heterogeneity, Misallocation, and Trade

    May 2025

    Authors: John Chung

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-33

    To what extent do domestic distortions influence the gains from trade? Using data from Chinese manufacturing surveys and U.S. census records, I document two novel stylized facts: (1) Larger producers in China exhibit lower revenue productivity, whereas larger producers in the U.S. exhibit higher revenue productivity. (2) Larger exporters in China exhibit lower export intensity, whereas larger exporters in the U.S. exhibit higher export intensity. A model of heterogeneous producers shows that only the U.S. patterns are consistent with an efficient allocation. To reconcile the observed patterns in China, I introduce producer- and destination-specific subsidies and estimate the model without imposing functional form assumptions on the joint distribution of productivity and subsidy rates. Accounting for distortions in China leads to substantially smaller estimated gains from trade.
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  • Working Paper

    The Rising Returns to R&D: Ideas Are Not Getting Harder to Find

    May 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-29

    R&D investment has grown robustly, yet aggregate productivity growth has stagnated. Is this because 'ideas are getting harder to find'? This paper uses micro-data from the US Census Bureau to explore the relationship between R&D and productivity in the manufacturing sector from 1976 to 2018. We find that both the elasticity of output (TFP) with respect to R&D and the marginal returns to R&D have risen sharply. Exploring factors affecting returns, we conclude that R&D obsolescence rates must have risen. Using a novel estimation approach, we find consistent evidence of sharply rising technological rivalry. These findings suggest that R&D has become more effective at finding productivity-enhancing ideas but these ideas may also render rivals' technologies obsolete, making innovations more transient.
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  • Working Paper

    The Rise of Industrial AI in America: Microfoundations of the Productivity J-curve(s)

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-27

    We examine the prevalence and productivity dynamics of artificial intelligence (AI) in American manufacturing. Working with the Census Bureau to collect detailed large-scale data for 2017 and 2021, we focus on AI-related technologies with industrial applications. We find causal evidence of J-curve-shaped returns, where short-term performance losses precede longer-term gains. Consistent with costly adjustment taking place within core production processes, industrial AI use increases work-in-progress inventory, investment in industrial robots, and labor shedding, while harming productivity and profitability in the short run. These losses are unevenly distributed, concentrating among older businesses while being mitigated by growth-oriented business strategies and within-firm spillovers. Dynamics, however, matter: earlier (pre-2017) adopters exhibit stronger growth over time, conditional on survival. Notably, among older establishments, abandonment of structured production-management practices accounts for roughly one-third of these losses, revealing a specific channel through which intangible factors shape AI's impact. Taken together, these results provide novel evidence on the microfoundations of technology J-curves, identifying mechanisms and illuminating how and why they differ across firm types. These findings extend our understanding of modern General Purpose Technologies, explaining why their economic impact'exemplified here by AI'may initially disappoint, particularly in contexts dominated by older, established firms.
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  • Working Paper

    The Effect of Oil News Shocks on Job Creation and Destruction

    January 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-06

    Using data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) and the Census of Manufacturing (CMF), we construct quarterly measures of job creation and destruction by 3-digit NAICS industries spanning from 1980Q3-2016Q4. These long series allow us to address three questions regarding the effect of oil news shocks. What is the average effect of oil news shocks on sectoral labor reallocation? What characteristics explain the observed heterogeneity in the average responses across industries? Has the response of US manufacturing changed over time? We find evidence that oil news shocks exert only a moderate effect on total manufacturing net employment growth but lead to a significant increase in job reallocation. However, we find a high degree of heterogeneity in responses across industries. We then show that the cross-industry variation in the sensitivity of net employment growth and excess job reallocation to oil news shocks is related to differences in energy costs, the rate of energy to capital expenditures, and the share of mature firms in the industry. Finally, we illustrate how the dynamic response of sectoral job creation and destruction to oil news shocks has declined since the mid-2000s.
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  • Working Paper

    Exploring the Hiring, Pay, and Trading Patterns of U.S. Firms: The Dominance of Multinationals Engaged in Related-Party Trade

    December 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-77

    We link U.S. job records with both firm-level business register and customs records to construct a novel set of summary statistics and descriptive regressions that highlight the central role played by the small set of multinational firms (denoted RP XM firms) who engage in both importing and exporting with related parties in translating international trade shocks to shifts in labor demand. We find that RP XM firms 1) dominate trade volumes; 2) account for very disproportionate shares of national employment and payroll; 3) employ greater shares of workers in higher pay deciles; 4) disproportionately poach other firms' high paid workers; 5) offer higher raises to their existing workers. These hiring and pay patterns generally exist even among new RP XM firms, but strengthen with RP XM tenure, and continue to hold, albeit at smaller magnitudes, after conditioning on standard proxies for firm and worker productivity. Taken together, these findings reveal that RP XM status is a reliable proxy for the kind of firm that drives the initial labor market impacts of trade shocks, and that high paid workers are likely to be most directly exposed to such shocks.
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  • Working Paper

    The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in U.S. Labor Markets

    October 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-65

    Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions.
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  • Working Paper

    Multinational Production and Innovation in Tandem

    October 2024

    Authors: Jin Liu

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-64

    Multinational firms colocate production and innovation by offshoring them to the same host country or region. In this paper, I examine the determinants of multinational firms' production and innovation locations. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in tariffs, I find complementarities between production and innovation within host countries and regions. To evaluate manufacturing reshoring policies, I develop a quantitative multicountry offshoring location choice model. I allow for rich colocation benefits and cross-country interdependencies and prove supermodularity of the model to solve this otherwise NP-hard problem. I find the effects of manufacturing reshoring policies are nonlinear, contingent upon firm heterogeneity, and they accumulate dynamically.
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  • Working Paper

    Starting Up AI

    March 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-09R

    Using comprehensive administrative data on business applications over the period 2004- 2023, we study business applications (ideas) and the resulting startups that aim to develop AI technologies or produce goods or services that use, integrate, or rely on AI. The annual number of new AI-related business applications is stable between 2004 and 2011, but begins to rise in 2012 with further increases from 2016 onward into the Covid-19 pandemic and beyond, with a large, discrete jump in 2023. The distribution of these applications is highly uneven across states and sectors. AI business applications have a higher likelihood of becoming employer startups compared to other applications. Moreover, businesses originating from these applications exhibit higher revenue, average wage, and labor share, but similar labor productivity and lower survival rate, compared to other businesses. While it is still early in the diffusion of AI, the rapid rise in AI business applications, combined with the better performance of resulting businesses in several key outcomes, suggests a growing contribution from AI-related business formation to business dynamism.
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  • Working Paper

    The Rise of Specialized Firms

    February 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-06

    This paper studies firm diversification over 6-digit NAICS industries in U.S. manufacturing. We find that firms specializing in fewer industries now account for a substantially greater share of production than 40 years ago. This reallocation is a key driver of rising industry concentration. Specialized firms have displaced diversified firms among industry leaders'absent this reallocation concentration would have decreased. We then provide evidence that specialized firms produce higher-quality goods: specialized firms tend to charge higher unit prices and are more insulated against Chinese import competition. Based on our empirical findings, we propose a theory in which growth shifts demand toward specialized, high-quality firms, which eventually increases concentration. We conclude that one should expect rising industry concentration in a growing economy.
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