Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Federal Statistical Research Data Center'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 214
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Working PaperExtending Place-Based Innovation Policy to Rural Areas: Using Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition to Identify Endowment Deficiencies
July 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-48
Place-based policy is premised on the idea that productive investments that address endowment deficiencies may release latent comparative advantages, stimulating growth while reducing regional disparities. Extending place-based policy to the domain of innovation is conceptually challenging given conventional wisdom that settlement size is the principal determinant of agglomeration economies that fuels innovation. However, growing concern that more places are being left behind by the innovation economy has prompted greater interest in ways to expand the geography of innovation. Using confidential firm-level data from the 2018 Annual Business Survey, this study examines differences in self-reported innovation activity between firms in rural and urban counties to identify possible endowment deficiencies. We do this by employing the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method to quantify the urban-rural innovation gap to better understand the relative contributions of firm characteristics, owner characteristics, and county-level factors.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperDesperate Capital Breeds Productivity Loss: Evidence From Public Pension Investments in Private Equity
July 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-47
I study investments of U.S. public pensions in private equity (PE), and trace them to ultimate micro assets'target firms which PE funds invest in, using micro-data on private investments combined with confidential U.S. Census data. I show that more severely underfunded public pensions receive lower average PE returns, and match with smaller GPs on average, than less underfunded pensions. Consistent with matching and returns, firms financed by most underfunded public pensions and smallest PE funds face labor productivity decreases. I introduce a novel instrument'public unionization'in support of underfunding positions driving selection into funds. Lastly, I evaluate alternate mechanisms.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperScreening Out the Needy: the Effects of SNAP Work Requirements
July 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-46
We examine the effectiveness of work requirements as a screening device in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Work requirements for 'able-bodied adults without dependents' were suspended after the Great Recession and gradually reinstated across counties and states in the 2010s. Using linked administrative SNAP and employment data from five states and a triple-differences design, we find that work requirements reduce SNAP participation by seven percent without increasing labor supply and disproportionately screen out low-income individuals. We develop a welfare framework to interpret these results and find that the social costs of work requirements exceed budget savings.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperWho Hires Whom? Entrepreneurial Backgrounds and Labor Market Opportunities
July 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-45
What are the implications of unequal access to entrepreneurial careers for labor markets? Using data from the U.S. Census and LinkedIn profiles, we document that entrepreneurs are significantly more likely to hire workers from similar social backgrounds (gender, race, age, education, etc.). These effects are quantitatively large across several demographic dimensions. For example, female employee share at female-founded startups is 36.4pp higher after controlling for industry-by-metro area-by-cohort fixed effects, with corresponding estimates of 51.2pp for Blacks, 37.3pp for Hispanics, and 11.3pp for non-college individuals. Large effects are present in high-growth startups, across industries and occupations, and remain stable across new firm cohorts. In addition, we find that these differences persist out to at least 20 years. We use wage data and an AKM research design to untangle whether the relative differences are driven by labor demand or labor supply effects. We find that demand drives the differences: group-specific wage decompositions show that new firms pay higher relative wages to individuals from similar backgrounds to the entrepreneur. Using these estimates, we calibrate a model of entrepreneurship with heterogeneous ability and production functions, and assess the impacts on relative wage from reducing access barriers to entrepreneurship.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperIntegrating Administrative and Survey Data to Estimate WIC Eligibility and Access
July 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-43
The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) provides benefits to low-income, nutritionally at-risk women, infants, and children. To administer WIC, officials and program managers at the federal and state level want to understand who is eligible for the program, who among the eligible population chooses to participate, and who is not accessing the program despite their eligibility. Novel individual-level data linkages between restricted-use WIC Administrative Records and the American Community Survey provide WIC access rates estimated at the state and county levels, as well as estimates disaggregated by the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of individuals and their households. These estimates are developed by the Census-FNS-ERS Joint Project, a research partnership among the U.S. Census Bureau, the US Department of Agriculture's Food and Nutrition Service and Economic Research Service, and state WIC agencies that provide the requisite WIC administrative data to the Census Bureau. This paper details and evaluates our current data linkage and estimation methods, reports results, and identifies areas for improvement and further research.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperMinimum Wages and the Rise of the Robots
July 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-42
This paper studies how minimum wage policy affects firms' adoption of automation'technologies. Using both state-level measures of robot exposure and novel plant-level'data on industrial robot imports linked to U.S. Census microdata from 1992'2021,'we show that increases in minimum wages raise the likelihood of robot adoption in'manufacturing. Our preferred identification exploits discontinuities at state borders,'comparing otherwise similar firms exposed to different wage floors. Across specifications, a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage increases robot adoption by roughly'8 percent relative to the mean.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Impact of Female Teachers on Female Students' Lifetime Well-Being
June 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-39
We document an enduring influence of female primary school teachers on their female students in rural America circa 1940. Using historical US Census data linked to IRS records, later censuses, and death records, we find that exposure to female teachers significantly improved girls' educational attainment'particularly among those with poorly-educated parents and in areas with limited labor market opportunities for women. These educational gains translated into delayed marriage and childbearing, marriage matches to better-educated husbands and higher household income. We also find that exposure to female teachers increased longevity of women relative to men.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperMilitary Service and Immigrants' Integration: Evidence From the Vietnam Draft Lotteries
June 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-35
Seminal theories in political science argue that military service is a critical driver of minority integration. However, a major obstacle bedeviling the study of military service is self-selection: individuals who are better integrated may be more likely to join the military in the first place. We address the selection problem by examining the effects of military conscription during the Vietnam War using an instrumental variables approach. Conscription during 1970--72 was decided on the basis of national draft lotteries that assigned draft numbers based on an individual's date of birth. Using the draft lottery instrument, we find no evidence of a causal effect of military service on a range of integration outcomes from the 2000 decennial census. At least for the Vietnam era, the link between service and long-term integration is largely driven by self-selection, which points to important scope conditions for the integrationist view.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperRemote Work and Residential Sorting: IV Evidence From Expiring Office Leases
June 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-34
How has remote work reshaped residential sorting and housing demand, and what are the implications for state and local governments? To estimate causal effects, I propose a novel instrument for remote work that exploits quasi-random variation in the timing and size of office lease expirations, captured through a Bartik-style exposure measure at the residential block level. Expirations allow tenant firms to reduce office space and switch employees to remote work, generating strong first-stage effects. Remote work causes modest increases in housing and property tax expenditures in exchange for space, homeownership, and public schools, but not other neighborhood characteristics. It significantly increases migration, particularly out of cities and states that levy income taxes. At the neighborhood level, higher 2020 remote work shares cause subsequent residential turnover, demographic clustering, and property tax revenue windfalls. Taken together, the results indicate that remote work induces migration consistent with Tiebout sorting, and accounts for 10% of migration since 2020. Residential choices and tax bases now depend less on employment proximity and more on affordability and tax-benefit linkage.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEmployees in the US Nonprofit Sector
May 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-33
The nonprofit sector employs roughly 10% of the American workforce, making it the third largest workforce behind the retail and manufacturing sectors. Despite this, relatively little is known about its employees. This paper is the first to use comprehensive administrative tax data, covering the near-universe of workers in the US, to quantify and explain the causes of the nonprofit pay differential. Unconditionally, we find the nonprofit earnings penalty to be 12% relative to for-profit workers. Estimating an 'AKM' worker-firm job ladder model, we show that most of the penalty is causal and not driven by selection. We also document considerable heterogeneity across industries, both in terms of earnings premia/penalties and worker selection, and show that nonprofit and for-profit earnings have been converging over time.View Full Paper PDF
