Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Federal Statistical Research Data Center'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 203
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Working PaperThe Real Effects of Bankruptcy Forum Shopping
May 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-29
Many non-Delaware firms strategically file for bankruptcy in Delaware. Should this "forum shopping" be allowed? This question has motivated nine proposed congressional bills over decades of policy debate. Using a novel natural experiment and Census-Bureau microdata, we inform this debate. Comparing similar firms within a Delaware-adjacent state, we show that proximity to Delaware predicts forum shopping. Instrumenting with proximity, we find that forum shopping causally: (i) prevents closures'and liquidations, (ii) shortens bankruptcies, (iii) boosts creditor recovery, and (iv) increases post-bankruptcy employment by 24.8%. Proximity to Delaware is uncorrelated with growth for not-yet-bankrupt or never-bankrupt firms, validating the exclusion restriction.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Adoption of Non-Rival Inputs and Firm Scope
April 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-28
Custom software is distinct from other types of capital in that it is non-rival'once a firm makes an investment in custom software, it can be used simultaneously across its many establishments. Using confidential U.S. Census data, we document that while firms with more establishments are more likely to invest in custom software, they spend less on it as a share of total capital expenditure. We explain these empirical patterns by developing a model that incorporates the non-rivalry of custom software. In the model, firms choose whether to adopt custom software, the intensity of their investment, and their scope, balancing the cost of managing multiple establishments with the increasing returns to scope from the nonrivalrous custom software investment. Using the calibrated model, we assess the extent to which the decline in the rental rate of custom software over the past 40 years can account for a number of macroeconomic trends, including increases in firm scope and concentration.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperCommunity Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence From Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrants
April 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-23
We study the role of victim reporting in the production of public safety. We examine the Secure Communities program, a crime-reduction policy that involved police in detecting unauthorized immigrants and increased deportation fears in immigrant communities. We find that the policy reduced the likelihood that Hispanic victims report crimes to police and increased offending against Hispanics. The number of reported crimes is unchanged, masking these opposing effects. We show that reduced reporting drives the offending increase and provide the first elasticity of offending to victim reporting in the literature, calculating that a 10% decline in reporting increases offending by 7.9%.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Role of Homophily in Response to Labor Market Opportunities: Differences Across Race and Ethnicity
March 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-22
This paper investigates the role that homophily might play in explaining racial/ethnic disparities in the labor market. We find that Black and Hispanic workers are less responsive than White workers to changes in job opportunities, but responsiveness increases when those opportunities present themselves in locations with a higher share own-race population. The analysis makes use of restricted American Community Survey data, accessible through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers, allowing us to include commuting zones that may otherwise not be identified because of suppressed location information in the public dataView Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperDid Foreigners Pay America's Tariffs? Quantity Discounts, Scale Economies and Incomplete Pass-Through
February 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-17
Transaction-level quantity discounts are a pervasive feature of US trade, shaping both price variation and tariff incidence. Using administrative microdata, we show that these discounts reflect transaction-level scale economies rather than market power. Accounting for these micro-level economies resolves a key puzzle: while observed import prices rose one-for-one with 2018-2019 US tariffs, we show this was driven by the loss of scale economies as transaction sizes collapsed. Controlling for this scale effect, the strategic pass-through of tariffs to scale-free prices falls to 60 percent, implying foreign exporters absorbed a significant share of the burden through reduced markups.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperCollege Majors and Earnings Growth
February 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-14
We estimate major-specific earnings profiles using matched American Community Survey (ACS) and Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) data. Building on Deming and Noray (2020), we exploit a long earnings panel to overcome key limitations of cross-sectional approaches to lifecycle estimation. We find that engineering and computer science majors experience earnings growth that is comparable to or faster than that of other majors, a category including humanities, education, psychology, and similar fields. In contrast, Deming and Noray (2020) use a crosscohort approach and find that earnings for engineering and computer science majors decline relative to other fields over the lifecycle.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Mortality Risk of Raising Grandchildren in the United States
February 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-13
In the United States, grandparents who live with and provide primary care to their grandchildren have emerged as a particularly vulnerable group since the 1990s. Using confidential data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Social Security Administration, this study linked individuals aged 50 years or older from the 2000 census long-form sample to their death records from 2000'2019 (weighted n = 64,027,000) and examined the longitudinal association between coresident grandparenting status and mortality for non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. We found consistently higher rates of mortality for White coresident grandparents and lower rates for Asian coresident grandparents, regardless of the duration of primary caregiving, compared to their peers without coresident grandchildren. We also found increased risks of mortality among Hispanic long-term primary caregivers but reduced risks among Black short-term primary caregivers, compared to their peers without coresident grandchildren.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEstablishment-Level Life Cycle and Analysts' Forecasts
February 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-12
This paper examines how multi-unit firms' life-cycle stages affect analyst forecast accuracy. While prior studies focus on the firm-level life cycle, we utilize the Census data and focus on the establishment level. We find that analyst forecast accuracy is lower for multi-unit firms whose establishments are in different life-cycle stages than those in the same life-cycle stage. This finding suggests that the forecasting difficulty of more diversified firms can be attributed to the different life-cycle stages of each establishment. We also find that for firms whose units are in different stages, analyst forecast accuracy is lower if the establishments in earlier stages are larger (i.e., generate more revenue) than those in later stages. As a comparison, we estimate the life-cycle stages using firms' segment classifications in their 10-K filings. We find that analysts' forecast accuracy is lower when firms report fewer segments than the number of establishments, suggesting that aggregating more establishments for segment reporting could complicate analysts' forecasting. To our knowledge, this is the first study that focuses on the establishment-level life cycle. This study highlights that firm-level life cycles should not be taken without caution, as aggregating multiple units' life cycles may be misleading. In order to provide better forecasts to investors, analysts should have a deeper understanding of firms' subunits, especially when the establishments are in different life-cycle stages.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperPositioned at Extremes: Future Job Placements of Immigrant Students at U.S. Colleges
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-08
Immigrant students who attend U.S. colleges are disproportionately employed in either large firms'especially multinationals'or small firms and self-employment. Using linked Census and longitudinal employment data, we trace the jobs taken by college students in 2000 during the 2001-20 period and evaluate four mechanisms shaping sector and firm size placement: geographic clustering, degree specialization, firm capabilities/visas, and ethnic self-employment specialization. Degree fields predict large firm and MNE placement, while ethnic specialization explains small firm sorting. Immigrant students who remain in the U.S. earn more than their native peers, suggesting the segmentation reflects productive sorting rather than blocked opportunity.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperFresh Start or Fresh Water: The impact of Environmental Lender Liability
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-05
I study the impact of lenders' environmental responsibility. The empirical setting exploits the U.S. Lender Liability Act of 1996, which reduced lenders' exposure to the environmental clean-up costs attached to some of their debtors' collateral, and employs difference-indifferences specifications estimated using EPA and U.S. Census microdata. Firms whose lenders face lower environmental liability risks increase pollution, reduce investment in abatement technologies by 14.7%, while experiencing small production and employment distortions. Lenders facing higher liability risks offer loans with less favorable pricing, thus financially incentivizing firms to become more environmentally responsible, and potentially monitor borrowers via shorter debt maturity.View Full Paper PDF
