Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Federal Statistical Research Data Center'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 185
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Working PaperKids to School and Moms to Work: New York City's Universal Pre-K Expansion and Mother's Employment
September 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-62
Using the restricted data from American Community Survey from 2011 to 2017, this paper examines the impact of New York City's (NYC) expansion of universal pre-kindergarten (UPK) on labor force participation of mothers with the youngest child of 4 years of age. Starting in Fall of 2014, any child who is 4 years old and residing in NYC for the past year is eligible for UPK for the academic year, for example all children born in 2010 would qualify for the academic year 2014-15. It uses a triple-difference approach - first compare mothers in NYC with the youngest child of 4-year-olds (treated mothers) to mothers with the youngest child of 5 and 6-year-olds (control mothers) before and after the program. Next, it compares this difference with mothers living in adjacent counties in the New York Metropolitan Area (NMA) in New York to NYC. I find that the program increased mothers' labor force participation by 5 percentage points (a 7.5 percent impact) in NYC. The results are robust to various robustness checks like comparing with mothers living in all of NMA and mothers in Philadelphia.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperBusiness Owners and the Self-Employed: 33 Million (and Counting!)
September 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-60
Entrepreneurs are known to be key drivers of economic growth, and the rise of online platforms and the broader 'gig economy' has led self-employment to surge in recent decades. Yet the young and small businesses associated with this activity are often absent from economic data. In this paper, we explore a novel longitudinal dataset that covers the owners of tens of millions of the smallest businesses: those without employees. We produce three new sets of statistics on the rapidly growing set of nonemployer businesses. First, we measure transitions between self-employment and wage and salary jobs. Second, we describe nonemployer business entry and exit, as well as transitions between legal form (e.g., sole proprietorship to S corporation). Finally, we link owners to their nonemployer businesses and examine the dynamics of business ownership.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEducation and Mortality: Evidence for the Silent Generation from Linked Census and Administrative Data
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-56
We quantify the effect of education on mortality using a linkage of the full count 1940, 2000, and 2010 US census files and the Numident death records file. Our sample is composed of children aged 0-18 in 1940, observed living with at least one parent, for whom we can construct a rich set of parental and neighborhood characteristics. We estimate effects of educational attainment in 1940 on survival to 2000, as well as the effects of completed education, observed in 2000, on 10-year survival to 2010. The educational gradients in longevity that we estimate are robust to the inclusion of detailed individual, parental, household, neighborhood and county covariates. Given our full population census sample, we also explore rich patterns of heterogeneity and examine the effect of mediators of the education-mortality relationship. The mediators we consider in this study explain more than half of the relationship between education and mortality. We further show that the mechanisms underlying the education-mortality gradient might be different at different margins of educational attainment.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Effect of the Minimum Wage on Childcare Establishments
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-53
Childcare is essential for working families, yet it remains increasingly unaffordable and inaccessible for parents and offers poverty-level wages to many employees. While research suggests minimum wage policies may improve the welfare of low-wage workers, there is also evidence they may increase firm exits, especially among smaller, low-profit firms, which could reduce access and harm consumer well-being. This study is the first to examine these trade-offs in the childcare industry, a labor-intensive, highly regulated sector where capital-labor substitution is limited, and to provide evidence on how minimum wage policies affect a dual-sector labor market in the U.S., where self-employed and waged providers serve overlapping markets. Using variation from state-level minimum wage increases between 1995 and 2019 and unique microdata, I implement a cross-state county border discontinuity design to estimate impacts on the stocks, flows, and composition of childcare establishments. I find that while county-level aggregate establishment stocks and employment remained stable, establishment-level turnover increased, and employment decreased. I reconcile these findings by showing that minimum wage increases prompted reallocation, with larger establishments in the waged-sector more likely to enter and less likely to exit, making this one of the first studies to link null aggregate effects to shifts in establishment composition. Finally, I show that minimum wage increases may negatively affect the self-employed sector, resulting in fewer owners with advanced degrees and more with only high school education. These findings suggest that minimum wage policies reshape who provides care in ways that could affect both quality and access.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperReceipt of Public and Private Food Assistance Across the Rural-Urban Continuum Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Current Population Survey Data
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-51
Background: The nutrition safety net in the United States is critical to supporting food security among households in need. Food assistance in the United States includes both government-funded food programs and private community-based providers who distribute food to in need households. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted experiences of food security and use of private and public food assistance resources. However, this may have differed for households residing in urban versus rural areas. We explored receipt of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits or food from community-based emergency food providers across a detailed measure of the rural-urban continuum before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We linked restricted use Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement data to census-tract level United States Department of Agriculture Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes to estimate prevalence of self-reported SNAP participation and receipt of emergency food support across temporal (2015-2019 versus 2020-2021) and socio-spatial (urban, large rural city/town, small rural town, or isolated rural town/area) dimensions. We report prevalences as point estimates with 95% confidence intervals, all weighted for national representation. Results: The weighted prevalence of self-reported SNAP participation was 8.9% (8.7-9.2%) in 2015-2019 and 9.1% (8.5-9.5%) in 2020-2021 in urban areas, 11.4% (10.8-12.2%) in 2015-2019 and 11.6% (10.5-12.9%) in 2020-2021 in large rural towns/cities, 13.4% (12.3-14.6%) in 2015-2019 and 12.3% (10.5-14.5%) in 2020-2021 in small rural towns, and 9.7% (8.6-10.9%) in 2015-2019 and 10.9% (8.8-13.4% )in 2020-2021 isolated rural towns. The weighted prevalence of self-reported receipt of emergency food was 4.9% (4.8-5.1%) in 2015-2019 and 6.2% (5.8-6.5%) in 2020-2021 in urban areas, 6.8% (6.2-7.4%) in 2015-2019 and 7.6% (6.6-8.6%) in 2020-2021 in large rural towns/cities, 8.1% (7.3-9.1%) in 2015-2019 and 7.1% (5.7-8.8%) in 2020-2021 in small rural towns, and 6.8% (5.9-7.7%) in 2015-2019 and 8.5% (6.7-10.6%) in 2020-2021 isolated rural towns. Conclusion: Households in rural communities use public and private food assistance at higher rates than urban areas, but there is variation across communities depending on the level of rurality.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperLocating Hispanic Americans, 1900-2020
July 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-50
This study examines Hispanic Americans' residential settlement patterns nationwide in the last 120 years. Drawing on newly available neighborhood data for the whole country as early as 1900, it documents the direction and timing of changes in two aspects of their location. First, it charts Hispanics' transition from a predominantly rural population to majority metropolitan by 1930 and also their growing presence in all regions of the U.S. while still maintaining a predominance in the West and Texas. Second, it provides the first evidence of the long-term trajectory of their segregation from whites in the metropolitan areas where they were settling. As shown by studies of more recent decades, Hispanics were never as segregated as African Americans. Nonetheless, similar to African Americans, their segregation from whites increased to high levels through the middle of the century, followed by slow decline. For both groups metropolitan segregation was driven mainly by segregation among central city neighborhoods prior to the 1940s. But new forms of segregation ' a growing city/suburb divide and increasing segregation among suburban places ' have become the largest contributors to segregation today.View Full Paper PDF
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Working Paper'Oh, Give Me a Home (Trade Share)': Differential Import Price Inflation and Gains from Trade Across U.S. Households
July 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-47
Consumers are differentially exposed to trade based on their expenditures, but there is little data on how such trade exposure differs across consumer groups and over time. In this paper, we construct 'home trade shares' that vary by age, race, marital status, education, and urban status, and use these to analyze differences in inflation and welfare gains from trade for U.S. demographic groups over the years 1996'2018. We show that over this time period, import prices (inclusive of the effects of taste change) held down overall inflation for all groups. For the typical group, more than a quarter of the gains from trade relative to autarky accrued in our time period. Welfare gains from trade over our time period are largest for rural households, and smallest for Black households. Adding taste change to the typical welfare gains from trade formula boosts the gains for every group relative to the standard formula.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperAn Anatomy of U.S. Establishments' Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-44
Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments' imports and exports. We find that for every dollar of exports, imported inputs represent 13 cents in 2002 and 20 cents by 2017. Examining GVC trade flows in a gravity framework, we find that these flows are higher within 'round-trip' (input and output market is the same) linkages, regional trade agreements, and multinational firm boundaries. The strong complementarities between input and output markets are muted by the proportionality assumptions embedded in global input-output tables. Finally, with an off-the-shelf model, we show the round-trip results can be obtained when firm-specific sourcing and exporting fixed costs are linked.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperInvestments under Risk: Evidence from Hurricane Strikes
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-43
We demonstrate that firms with plants in areas subject to a significant hurricane strike reduce their capital expenditures at the hurricane-affected plants and shift capital expenditures to plants in non-hurricane-affected areas. This effect is not present prior to 1997 and only appears from 1997 on. Our evidence is consistent with the possibility that a significant climate event such as the signing of the Kyoto Protocol raised the salience of the perceived risk from actual hurricane strikes and shifted firm behavior.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Rural/Urban Volunteering Divide
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-42
Are rural residents more likely to volunteer than those living in urban places? Although early sociological theory posited that rural residents were more likely to experience social bonds connecting them to their community, increasing their odds of volunteer engagement, empirical support is limited. Drawing upon the full population of rural and urban respondents to the United States Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) Volunteering Supplement (2002-2015), we found that rural respondents are more likely to report volunteering compared to urban respondents, although these differences are decreasing over time. Moreover, we found that propensities for rural and urban volunteerism vary based on differences in both individual and place-based characteristics; further, the size of these effects differ across rural and urban places. These findings have important implications for theory and empirical analysis.View Full Paper PDF
