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Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'technological'

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Center for Economic Studies - 30

National Science Foundation - 29

Annual Survey of Manufactures - 25

North American Industry Classification System - 23

Longitudinal Business Database - 22

Ordinary Least Squares - 22

Total Factor Productivity - 20

Standard Industrial Classification - 20

Longitudinal Research Database - 20

Survey of Manufacturing Technology - 16

Bureau of Economic Analysis - 15

National Bureau of Economic Research - 15

Bureau of Labor Statistics - 14

Census of Manufactures - 14

Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board - 13

Patent and Trademark Office - 12

Federal Statistical Research Data Center - 12

Economic Census - 12

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - 11

Computer Network Use Supplement - 11

Cobb-Douglas - 10

Census of Manufacturing Firms - 9

Current Population Survey - 8

Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database - 8

Information and Communication Technology Survey - 8

Electronic Data Interchange - 8

Business Research and Development and Innovation Survey - 7

Business R&D and Innovation Survey - 7

Disclosure Review Board - 7

Federal Reserve Bank - 6

Survey of Industrial Research and Development - 6

National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics - 6

Business Register - 6

Business Dynamics Statistics - 6

Research Data Center - 6

Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research - 6

Computer Aided Design - 6

Census Bureau Business Register - 5

Internal Revenue Service - 5

Fabricated Metal Products - 5

Annual Business Survey - 4

Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics - 4

Professional Services - 4

County Business Patterns - 4

Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Industries - 4

Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database - 4

Metropolitan Statistical Area - 4

Decennial Census - 4

American Community Survey - 4

Service Annual Survey - 4

Employer Identification Numbers - 4

Harmonized System - 4

Department of Commerce - 4

American Statistical Association - 4

Alfred P Sloan Foundation - 3

Office of Management and Budget - 3

Department of Homeland Security - 3

Technical Services - 3

University of Maryland - 3

Princeton University - 3

Labor Productivity - 3

European Commission - 3

Department of Defense - 3

New York University - 3

Generalized Method of Moments - 3

United Nations - 3

International Standard Industrial Classification - 3

European Union - 3

Chicago Census Research Data Center - 3

Journal of Economic Literature - 3

Federal Trade Commission - 3

manufacturing - 44

innovation - 41

growth - 39

industrial - 39

technology - 39

production - 37

investment - 25

patent - 22

econometric - 22

manufacturer - 21

productivity growth - 19

expenditure - 19

innovate - 17

invention - 15

company - 15

produce - 15

patenting - 14

economist - 14

sector - 14

factory - 13

organizational - 13

enterprise - 13

market - 13

innovative - 12

estimating - 12

technical - 12

tech - 12

productive - 11

gdp - 11

research - 11

technology adoption - 11

labor - 11

inventory - 10

economically - 10

innovating - 10

innovator - 10

profit - 9

demand - 9

sale - 9

efficiency - 9

factor productivity - 8

specialization - 8

employ - 8

workforce - 8

industry productivity - 8

plant productivity - 8

growth productivity - 7

spillover - 7

researcher - 7

product - 7

computer - 7

productivity plants - 7

investing - 6

innovation productivity - 6

recession - 6

survey - 6

study - 6

export - 6

labor productivity - 6

productivity differences - 6

invest - 5

firm patenting - 5

profitability - 5

productivity estimates - 5

investment productivity - 5

depreciation - 5

revenue - 5

estimation - 5

macroeconomic - 5

entrepreneurship - 5

productivity impacts - 5

strategic - 5

analysis - 5

import - 5

earnings - 5

measures productivity - 5

productivity measures - 5

productivity analysis - 5

analysis productivity - 5

employee - 5

firms patents - 4

manufacturing productivity - 4

acquisition - 4

developed - 4

development - 4

entrepreneur - 4

multinational - 4

outsourcing - 4

productivity increases - 4

productivity size - 4

producing - 4

industry growth - 4

commerce - 4

estimates productivity - 4

investor - 3

prospect - 3

patents firms - 3

firm innovation - 3

rates productivity - 3

productivity dynamics - 3

stock - 3

endogeneity - 3

externality - 3

competitor - 3

spending - 3

productivity dispersion - 3

commodity - 3

level productivity - 3

worker - 3

employing - 3

international trade - 3

industry variation - 3

capital - 3

plant investment - 3

regression - 3

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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 71


  • Working Paper

    Property Rights, Firm Size and Investments in Innovation: Evidence from the America Invents Act

    May 2025

    Authors: James Driver

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-31

    I analyze whether a change in patent systems differentially affects firm-level innovation investments at patent-valuing firms of different sizes. Using legally required, economically representative, U.S. Census Bureau microdata, I separate firms into groups based on a firm's response to a question asking it to rank the degree of patent importance to its business and firm-size. I then measure how firms' innovation inputs/outputs respond to the America Invents Act (AIA). Results show the AIA reduced innovation investments at smaller, patent-valuing firms while increasing innovation investments at larger, patent-valuing firms, highlighting differential firm-size effects of patent policy and policy's importance to investments.
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  • Working Paper

    The Rising Returns to R&D: Ideas Are Not Getting Harder to Find

    May 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-29

    R&D investment has grown robustly, yet aggregate productivity growth has stagnated. Is this because 'ideas are getting harder to find'? This paper uses micro-data from the US Census Bureau to explore the relationship between R&D and productivity in the manufacturing sector from 1976 to 2018. We find that both the elasticity of output (TFP) with respect to R&D and the marginal returns to R&D have risen sharply. Exploring factors affecting returns, we conclude that R&D obsolescence rates must have risen. Using a novel estimation approach, we find consistent evidence of sharply rising technological rivalry. These findings suggest that R&D has become more effective at finding productivity-enhancing ideas but these ideas may also render rivals' technologies obsolete, making innovations more transient.
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  • Working Paper

    The Rise of Industrial AI in America: Microfoundations of the Productivity J-curve(s)

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-27

    We examine the prevalence and productivity dynamics of artificial intelligence (AI) in American manufacturing. Working with the Census Bureau to collect detailed large-scale data for 2017 and 2021, we focus on AI-related technologies with industrial applications. We find causal evidence of J-curve-shaped returns, where short-term performance losses precede longer-term gains. Consistent with costly adjustment taking place within core production processes, industrial AI use increases work-in-progress inventory, investment in industrial robots, and labor shedding, while harming productivity and profitability in the short run. These losses are unevenly distributed, concentrating among older businesses while being mitigated by growth-oriented business strategies and within-firm spillovers. Dynamics, however, matter: earlier (pre-2017) adopters exhibit stronger growth over time, conditional on survival. Notably, among older establishments, abandonment of structured production-management practices accounts for roughly one-third of these losses, revealing a specific channel through which intangible factors shape AI's impact. Taken together, these results provide novel evidence on the microfoundations of technology J-curves, identifying mechanisms and illuminating how and why they differ across firm types. These findings extend our understanding of modern General Purpose Technologies, explaining why their economic impact'exemplified here by AI'may initially disappoint, particularly in contexts dominated by older, established firms.
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  • Working Paper

    Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-21

    Relatively flat US output growth versus rising numbers of US researchers is often interpreted as evidence that "ideas are getting harder to find." We build a new 46-year panel tracking the universe of U.S. firms' patenting to investigate the micro underpinnings of this claim, separately examining the relationships between research inputs and ideas (patents) versus ideas and growth. Over our sample period, we find that researchers' patenting productivity is increasing, there is little evidence of any secular decline in high-quality patenting common to all firms, and the link between patents and growth is present, differs by type of idea, and is fairly stable. On the other hand, we find strong evidence of secular decreases in output unrelated to patenting, suggesting an important role for other factors. Together, these results invite renewed empirical and theoretical attention to the impact of ideas on growth. To that end, our patent-firm bridge, which will be available to researchers with approved access, is used to produce new, public-use statistics on the Business Dynamics of Patenting Firms (BDS-PF).
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  • Working Paper

    The Intangible Divide: Why Do So Few Firms Invest in Innovation?

    February 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-15

    Investments in software, R&D, and advertising have surged, nearing half of U.S. private nonresidential investment. Yet just a few hundred firms dominate this growth. Most firms, including large ones, regularly invest little in capitalized software and R&D, widening this 'intangible divide' despite falling intangible prices. Using comprehensive US Census microdata, we document these patterns and explore factors associated with intangible investment. We find that firms invest significantly less in innovation-related intangibles when their rivals invest more. One firm's investment can obsolesce rivals' investments, reducing returns. This negative pecuniary externality worsens the intangible divide, potentially leading to significant misallocation.
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  • Working Paper

    Investigating the Effect of Innovation Activities of Firms on Innovation Performance: Does Firm Size Matter?

    January 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-04

    Understanding the relationship between a firm's innovation activities and its performance has been of great interest to management scholars. While the literature on innovation activities is vast, there is a dearth of studies investigating the effect of key innovation activities of the firm on innovation outcomes in a single study, and whether their effects are dependent on the nature of firms, specifically firm size. Drawing from a longitudinal dataset from the Business Research & Development and Innovation Survey (BRDIS), and informed by contingency theory and resource orchestration theory, we examine the relationship between a firm's innovation activities - including its Research & Development (R&D) investment, securing patents, collaborative R&D, R&D toward new business areas, and grants for R&D - and its product innovation and process innovation. We also investigate whether these relationships are contingent on firm size. Consistent with contingency theory, we find a significant difference between large firms and small firms regarding how they enhance product innovation and process innovation. Large firms can improve product innovation by securing patents through applications and issuances, coupled with active participation in collaborative R&D efforts. Conversely, smaller firms concentrate their efforts on the number of patents applied for, directing R&D efforts toward new business areas, and often leveraging grants for R&D efforts. To achieve process innovation, a similar dichotomy emerges. Larger firms demonstrate a commitment to securing patents, engage in R&D efforts tailored to new business areas, and actively collaborate with external entities on R&D efforts. In contrast, smaller firms primarily focus on securing patents and channel their R&D efforts toward new business pursuits. This nuanced exploration highlights the varied strategies employed by large and small firms in navigating the intricate landscape of both product and process innovation. The results shed light on specific innovation activities as antecedents of innovation outcomes and demonstrate how the effectiveness of such assets is contingent upon firm size.
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  • Working Paper

    The Geography of Inventors and Local Knowledge Spillovers in R&D

    October 2024

    Authors: Brian C. Fujiy

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-59

    I causally estimate local knowledge spillovers in R&D and quantify their importance when implementing R&D policies. Using a new administrative panel on German inventors, I estimate these spillovers by isolating quasi-exogenous variation from the arrival of East German inventors across West Germany after the Reunification of Germany in 1990. Increasing the number of inventors by 1% increases inventor productivity by 0.4%. I build a spatial model of innovation, and show that these spillovers are crucial when reducing migration costs for inventors or implementing R&D subsidies to promote economic activity.
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  • Working Paper

    Competition, Firm Innovation, and Growth under Imperfect Technology Spillovers

    July 2024

    Authors: Karam Jo, Seula Kim

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-40

    We study how friction in learning others' technology, termed 'imperfect technology spillovers,' incentivizes firms to use different types of innovation and impacts the implications of competition through changes in innovation composition. We build an endogenous growth model in which multi-product firms enhance their products via internal innovation and enter new product markets through external innovation. When learning others' technology takes time due to this friction, increased competitive pressure leads firms with technological advantages to intensify internal innovation to protect their markets, thereby reducing others' external innovation. Using the U.S. administrative firm-level data, we provide regression results supporting the model predictions. Our findings highlight the importance of strategic firm innovation choices and changes in their composition in shaping the aggregate implications of competition.
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  • Working Paper

    Urban-Biased Growth: A Macroeconomic Analysis

    June 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-33

    After 1980, larger US cities experienced substantially faster wage growth than smaller ones. We show that this urban bias mainly reflected wage growth at large Business Services firms. These firms stand out through their high per-worker expenditure on information technology and disproportionate presence in big cities. We introduce a spatial model of investment-specific technical change that can rationalize these patterns. Using the model as an accounting framework, we find that the observed decline in the investment price of information technology capital explains most urban-biased growth by raising the profits of large Business Services firms in big cities.
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  • Working Paper

    Grassroots Design Meets Grassroots Innovation: Rural Design Orientation and Firm Performance

    March 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-17

    The study of grassroots design'applying structured, creative processes to the usability or aesthetics of a product without input from professional design consultancies'remains under investigated. If design comprises a mediation between people and technology whereby technologies are made more accessible or more likely to delight, then the process by which new grassroots inventions are transformed into innovations valued in markets cannot be fully understood. This paper uses U.S. data on the design orientation of respondents in the 2014 Rural Establishment Innovation Survey linked to longitudinal data on the same firms to examine the association between design, innovation, and employment and payroll growth. Findings from the research will inform questions to be investigated in the recently collected 2022 Annual Business Survey (ABS) that for the first time contains a Design module.
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