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Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'import'

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Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database - 37

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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 66


  • Working Paper

    An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments' Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains

    June 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-44

    Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments' imports and exports. We find that for every dollar of exports, imported inputs represent 13 cents in 2002 and 20 cents by 2017. Examining GVC trade flows in a gravity framework, we find that these flows are higher within 'round-trip' (input and output market is the same) linkages, regional trade agreements, and multinational firm boundaries. The strong complementarities between input and output markets are muted by the proportionality assumptions embedded in global input-output tables. Finally, with an off-the-shelf model, we show the round-trip results can be obtained when firm-specific sourcing and exporting fixed costs are linked.
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  • Working Paper

    Firm Heterogeneity, Misallocation, and Trade

    May 2025

    Authors: John Chung

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-33

    To what extent do domestic distortions influence the gains from trade? Using data from Chinese manufacturing surveys and U.S. census records, I document two novel stylized facts: (1) Larger producers in China exhibit lower revenue productivity, whereas larger producers in the U.S. exhibit higher revenue productivity. (2) Larger exporters in China exhibit lower export intensity, whereas larger exporters in the U.S. exhibit higher export intensity. A model of heterogeneous producers shows that only the U.S. patterns are consistent with an efficient allocation. To reconcile the observed patterns in China, I introduce producer- and destination-specific subsidies and estimate the model without imposing functional form assumptions on the joint distribution of productivity and subsidy rates. Accounting for distortions in China leads to substantially smaller estimated gains from trade.
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  • Working Paper

    Multi-Market Contact in International Trade; Evidence from U.S. Battery Exporters

    May 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-32

    When competitors compete in more than one market they are said to have multi-market contact (MMC). Firms with MMC are more likely collude to avoid cross-market retaliation. This paper investigates the impact of MMC among U.S. battery exporters on the prices they set in foreign markets using confidential export transaction data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. The ability of firms to exploit MMC for collusive gain in international markets can be both detrimental to import-dependent consumers and harder for anti-trust authorities to detect. Motivated by litigation finding evidence of collusive behavior by multi-national battery manufacturers, MMC has an upward effect on export prices set by U.S. battery exporters. These results are robust across different panel regression specifications using different measures of MMC.
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  • Working Paper

    Exploring the Hiring, Pay, and Trading Patterns of U.S. Firms: The Dominance of Multinationals Engaged in Related-Party Trade

    December 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-77

    We link U.S. job records with both firm-level business register and customs records to construct a novel set of summary statistics and descriptive regressions that highlight the central role played by the small set of multinational firms (denoted RP XM firms) who engage in both importing and exporting with related parties in translating international trade shocks to shifts in labor demand. We find that RP XM firms 1) dominate trade volumes; 2) account for very disproportionate shares of national employment and payroll; 3) employ greater shares of workers in higher pay deciles; 4) disproportionately poach other firms' high paid workers; 5) offer higher raises to their existing workers. These hiring and pay patterns generally exist even among new RP XM firms, but strengthen with RP XM tenure, and continue to hold, albeit at smaller magnitudes, after conditioning on standard proxies for firm and worker productivity. Taken together, these findings reveal that RP XM status is a reliable proxy for the kind of firm that drives the initial labor market impacts of trade shocks, and that high paid workers are likely to be most directly exposed to such shocks.
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  • Working Paper

    The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in U.S. Labor Markets

    October 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-65

    Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions.
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  • Working Paper

    Aggregation Bias in the Measurement of U.S. Global Value Chains

    September 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-49

    This paper measures global value chain (GVC) activity, defined as imported content of exports, of U.S. manufacturing plants between 2002 and 2012. We assesses the extent of aggregation bias that arises from relying on industry-level exports, imports, and output to establish three results. First, GVC activity based on industry-level data underestimate the actual degree of GVC engagement by ignoring potential correlations between import and export activities across plants within industries. Second, the bias grew over the sample period. Finally, unlike with industry-level measures, we find little slowdown in GVC integration by U.S. manufacturers.
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  • Working Paper

    Supply Chain Adjustments to Tariff Shocks: Evidence from Firm Trade Linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. Trade War

    August 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-43

    We use the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war to examine how supply chains adjustments to a tariff cost shock affect imports and exports. Using confidential firm-trade linked data, we show that the decline in imports of tariffed goods was driven by discontinuations of U.S. buyer'foreign supplier relationships, reduced formation of new relationships, and exits by U.S. firms from import markets altogether. However, tariffed products where imports were concentrated in fewer suppliers had a smaller decline in import growth. We then construct measures of export exposure to import tariffs by linking tariffs paid by importing firms to their exported products. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018-2019, with most of the impact occurring in 2019.
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  • Working Paper

    The Rise of Specialized Firms

    February 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-06

    This paper studies firm diversification over 6-digit NAICS industries in U.S. manufacturing. We find that firms specializing in fewer industries now account for a substantially greater share of production than 40 years ago. This reallocation is a key driver of rising industry concentration. Specialized firms have displaced diversified firms among industry leaders'absent this reallocation concentration would have decreased. We then provide evidence that specialized firms produce higher-quality goods: specialized firms tend to charge higher unit prices and are more insulated against Chinese import competition. Based on our empirical findings, we propose a theory in which growth shifts demand toward specialized, high-quality firms, which eventually increases concentration. We conclude that one should expect rising industry concentration in a growing economy.
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  • Working Paper

    The Changing Firm and Country Boundaries of US Manufacturers in Global Value Chains

    July 2023

    Authors: Teresa C. Fort

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-23-38

    This paper documents how US firms organize goods production across firm and country boundaries. Most US firms that perform physical transformation tasks in-house using foreign manufacturing plants in 2007 also own US manufacturing plants; moreover manufacturing comprises their main domestic activity. By contrast, 'factoryless goods producers' outsource all physical transformation tasks to arm's-length contractors, focusing their in-house efforts on design and marketing. This distinct firm type is missing from standard analyses of manufacturing, growing in importance, and increasingly reliant on foreign suppliers. Physical transformation 'within-the-firm' thus coincides with substantial physical transformation 'within-the-country,' whereas its performance 'outside-the-firm' often also implies 'outside-the-country.' Despite these differences, factoryless goods producers and firms with foreign and domestic manufacturing plants both employ relatively high shares of US knowledge workers. These patterns call for new models and data to capture the potential for foreign production to support domestic innovation, which US firms leverage around the world.
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  • Working Paper

    Who's Most Exposed to International Shocks? Estimating Differences in Import Price Sensitivity across U.S. Demographic Groups

    March 2023

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-23-13R

    Differences in consumption patterns across demographic groups mean that international price shocks differentially affect such groups. We construct import price indexes for U.S. households that vary by age, race, marital status, education, and urban status. Black households and urban households experienced significantly higher import price inflation from 1996-2018 compared to other groups, such as white households and rural households. Sensitivity to international price shocks varies widely, implying movements in exchange rates and foreign prices, both during our sample and during the Covid-19 pandemic, drove sizable differences in import price inflation ' and total inflation ' across households.
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