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Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Board of Governors'

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Federal Reserve System - 24

Center for Economic Studies - 14

Federal Reserve Bank - 13

Longitudinal Business Database - 13

North American Industry Classification System - 12

Internal Revenue Service - 11

National Bureau of Economic Research - 10

Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board - 9

Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database - 9

Ordinary Least Squares - 9

Bureau of Labor Statistics - 9

Census of Manufacturing Firms - 8

Annual Survey of Manufactures - 8

Kauffman Foundation - 7

Census of Manufactures - 6

Bureau of Economic Analysis - 6

Federal Statistical Research Data Center - 6

Employer Identification Numbers - 6

Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database - 6

Longitudinal Research Database - 6

Chicago Census Research Data Center - 6

National Science Foundation - 5

Standard Industrial Classification - 5

Characteristics of Business Owners - 5

Russell Sage Foundation - 5

Harmonized System - 4

Customs and Border Protection - 4

Social Security Administration - 4

Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics - 4

Disclosure Review Board - 4

Yale University - 4

Current Population Survey - 4

Department of Homeland Security - 4

Total Factor Productivity - 4

PSID - 4

Business Register - 3

Federal Reserve Board of Governors - 3

Alfred P Sloan Foundation - 3

Generalized Method of Moments - 3

American Economic Review - 3

Review of Economic Studies - 3

Journal of Economic Perspectives - 3

County Business Patterns - 3

Quarterly Workforce Indicators - 3

Department of Economics - 3

Survey of Income and Program Participation - 3

Census Bureau Business Register - 3

University of Michigan - 3

Business Dynamics Statistics - 3

E32 - 3

University of Maryland - 3

Department of Commerce - 3

UC Berkeley - 3

Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 32


  • Working Paper

    An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments' Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains

    June 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-44

    Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments' imports and exports. We find that for every dollar of exports, imported inputs represent 13 cents in 2002 and 20 cents by 2017. Examining GVC trade flows in a gravity framework, we find that these flows are higher within 'round-trip' (input and output market is the same) linkages, regional trade agreements, and multinational firm boundaries. The strong complementarities between input and output markets are muted by the proportionality assumptions embedded in global input-output tables. Finally, with an off-the-shelf model, we show the round-trip results can be obtained when firm-specific sourcing and exporting fixed costs are linked.
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  • Working Paper

    Aggregation Bias in the Measurement of U.S. Global Value Chains

    September 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-49

    This paper measures global value chain (GVC) activity, defined as imported content of exports, of U.S. manufacturing plants between 2002 and 2012. We assesses the extent of aggregation bias that arises from relying on industry-level exports, imports, and output to establish three results. First, GVC activity based on industry-level data underestimate the actual degree of GVC engagement by ignoring potential correlations between import and export activities across plants within industries. Second, the bias grew over the sample period. Finally, unlike with industry-level measures, we find little slowdown in GVC integration by U.S. manufacturers.
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  • Working Paper

    The Impact of Immigration on Firms and Workers: Insights from the H-1B Lottery

    April 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-19

    We study how random variation in the availability of highly educated, foreign-born workers impacts firm performance and recruitment behavior. We combine two rich data sources: 1) administrative employer-employee matched data from the US Census Bureau; and 2) firm level information on the first large-scale H-1B visa lottery in 2007. Using an event-study approach, we find that lottery wins lead to increases in firm hiring of college-educated, immigrant labor along with increases in scale and survival. These effects are stronger for small, skill-intensive, and high-productivity firms that participate in the lottery. We do not find evidence for displacement of native-born, college-educated workers at the firm level, on net. However, this result masks dynamics among more specific subgroups of incumbents that we further elucidate.
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  • Working Paper

    Who's Most Exposed to International Shocks? Estimating Differences in Import Price Sensitivity across U.S. Demographic Groups

    March 2023

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-23-13R

    Differences in consumption patterns across demographic groups mean that international price shocks differentially affect such groups. We construct import price indexes for U.S. households that vary by age, race, marital status, education, and urban status. Black households and urban households experienced significantly higher import price inflation from 1996-2018 compared to other groups, such as white households and rural households. Sensitivity to international price shocks varies widely, implying movements in exchange rates and foreign prices, both during our sample and during the Covid-19 pandemic, drove sizable differences in import price inflation ' and total inflation ' across households.
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  • Working Paper

    The Long-run Effects of the 1930s Redlining Maps on Children

    December 2022

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-22-56

    We estimate the long-run effects of the 1930s Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) redlining maps by linking children in the full count 1940 Census to 1) the universe of IRS tax data in 1974 and 1979 and 2) the long form 2000 Census. We use two identification strategies to estimate the potential long-run effects of differential access to credit along HOLC boundaries. The first strategy compares cross-boundary differences along HOLC boundaries to a comparison group of boundaries that had statistically similar pre-existing differences as the actual boundaries. A second approach only uses boundaries that were least likely to have been chosen by the HOLC based on our statistical model. We find that children living on the lower-graded side of HOLC boundaries had significantly lower levels of educational attainment, reduced income in adulthood, and lived in neighborhoods during adulthood characterized by lower educational attainment, higher poverty rates, and higher rates of single-headed households.
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  • Working Paper

    Investment and Subjective Uncertainty

    November 2022

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-22-52

    A longstanding challenge in evaluating the impact of uncertainty on investment is obtaining measures of managers' subjective uncertainty. We address this challenge by using a detailed new survey measure of subjective uncertainty collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for approximately 25,000 manufacturing plants. We find three key results. First, investment is strongly and robustly negatively associated with higher uncertainty, with a two standard deviation increase in uncertainty associated with about a 6% reduction in investment. Second, uncertainty is also negatively related to employment growth and overall shipments (sales) growth, which highlights the damaging impact of uncertainty on firm growth. Third, flexible inputs like rental capital and temporary workers show a positive relationship to uncertainty, demonstrating that businesses switch from less flexible to more flexible factor inputs at higher levels of uncertainty.
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  • Working Paper

    Trade Liberalization and Labor-Market Outcomes: Evidence from US Matched Employer-Employee Data

    September 2022

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-22-42

    We use matched employer-employee data to examine outcomes among workers initially employed within and outside manufacturing after trade liberalization with China. We find that exposure to this shock operates predominantly through workers' counties (versus industries), that larger own industry and downstream exposure typically reduce relative earnings, and that greater upstream exposure often raises them. The latter is particularly important outside manufacturing: while we find substantial and persistent predicted declines in relative earnings among manufacturing workers, those outside manufacturing are generally predicted to experience relative earnings gains. Investigation of employment reactions indicates they account for a small share of the earnings effect.
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  • Working Paper

    Finding Needles in Haystacks: Multiple-Imputation Record Linkage Using Machine Learning

    November 2021

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-21-35

    This paper considers the problem of record linkage between a household-level survey and an establishment-level frame in the absence of unique identifiers. Linkage between frames in this setting is challenging because the distribution of employment across establishments is highly skewed. To address these difficulties, this paper develops a probabilistic record linkage methodology that combines machine learning (ML) with multiple imputation (MI). This ML-MI methodology is applied to link survey respondents in the Health and Retirement Study to their workplaces in the Census Business Register. The linked data reveal new evidence that non-sampling errors in household survey data are correlated with respondents' workplace characteristics.
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  • Working Paper

    Business Formation: A Tale of Two Recessions

    January 2021

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-21-01

    The trajectory of new business applications and transitions to employer businesses differ markedly during the Great Recession and COVID-19 Recession. Both applications and transitions to employer startups decreased slowly but persistently in the post-Lehman crisis period of the Great Recession. In contrast, during the COVID-19 Recession new applications initially declined but have since sharply rebounded, resulting in a surge in applications during 2020. Projected transitions to employer businesses also rise but this is dampened by a change in the composition of applications in 2020 towards applications that are more likely to be nonemployers.
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  • Working Paper

    Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty

    December 2020

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-20-41

    The Census Bureau's 2015 Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS) utilized innovative methodology to collect five-point forecast distributions over own future shipments, employment, and capital and materials expenditures for 35,000 U.S. manufacturing plants. First and second moments of these plant-level forecast distributions covary strongly with first and second moments, respectively, of historical outcomes. The first moment of the distribution provides a measure of business' expectations for future outcomes, while the second moment provides a measure of business' subjective uncertainty over those outcomes. This subjective uncertainty measure correlates positively with financial risk measures. Drawing on the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufactures for the corresponding realizations, we find that subjective expectations are highly predictive of actual outcomes and, in fact, more predictive than statistical models fit to historical data. When respondents express greater subjective uncertainty about future outcomes at their plants, their forecasts are less accurate. However, managers supply overly precise forecast distributions in that implied confidence intervals for sales growth rates are much narrower than the distribution of actual outcomes. Finally, we develop evidence that greater use of predictive computing and structured management practices at the plant and a more decentralized decision-making process (across plants in the same firm) are associated with better forecast accuracy.
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