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Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'growth'

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Longitudinal Business Database - 88

Center for Economic Studies - 83

Longitudinal Research Database - 68

Total Factor Productivity - 66

North American Industry Classification System - 65

Standard Industrial Classification - 64

Annual Survey of Manufactures - 59

Bureau of Labor Statistics - 59

National Science Foundation - 53

National Bureau of Economic Research - 49

Ordinary Least Squares - 47

Bureau of Economic Analysis - 46

Census of Manufactures - 38

Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database - 36

Economic Census - 32

Cobb-Douglas - 30

Federal Reserve Bank - 29

Internal Revenue Service - 28

Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board - 25

Business Dynamics Statistics - 24

Federal Statistical Research Data Center - 23

Census of Manufacturing Firms - 22

County Business Patterns - 20

Employer Identification Numbers - 19

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Census Bureau Business Register - 18

Small Business Administration - 17

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - 17

Department of Homeland Security - 17

Chicago Census Research Data Center - 17

Current Population Survey - 16

Federal Reserve System - 16

Disclosure Review Board - 15

Business Register - 14

Kauffman Foundation - 14

Research Data Center - 13

Survey of Industrial Research and Development - 12

Generalized Method of Moments - 12

Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Industries - 12

Standard Statistical Establishment List - 12

Patent and Trademark Office - 11

Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics - 11

Retirement History Survey - 11

Business Research and Development and Innovation Survey - 10

University of Maryland - 10

Labor Productivity - 10

TFPQ - 10

University of Chicago - 10

Journal of Economic Literature - 9

Special Sworn Status - 9

Business R&D and Innovation Survey - 8

Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics - 8

Herfindahl Hirschman Index - 8

Department of Commerce - 8

European Union - 8

Survey of Manufacturing Technology - 8

Wholesale Trade - 7

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - 7

Retail Trade - 7

Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research - 7

Department of Economics - 7

COMPUSTAT - 7

Information and Communication Technology Survey - 7

Herfindahl-Hirschman - 7

VAR - 7

New York University - 7

World Bank - 7

American Economic Review - 7

Alfred P Sloan Foundation - 6

Annual Business Survey - 6

Value Added - 6

Technical Services - 6

Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database - 6

Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies - 6

Census of Retail Trade - 6

Service Annual Survey - 6

Characteristics of Business Owners - 6

Michigan Institute for Teaching and Research in Economics - 6

Harvard University - 6

American Statistical Association - 6

Initial Public Offering - 5

Office of Management and Budget - 5

National Employer Survey - 5

Survey of Business Owners - 5

Insurance Information Institute - 5

Washington University - 5

Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation - 5

IQR - 5

Current Employment Statistics - 5

National Income and Product Accounts - 5

Energy Information Administration - 5

Social Security - 5

Quarterly Workforce Indicators - 5

Review of Economics and Statistics - 5

Wal-Mart - 5

Business Employment Dynamics - 5

Board of Governors - 5

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Computer Network Use Supplement - 5

National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics - 4

Integrated Longitudinal Business Database - 4

Accommodation and Food Services - 4

Professional Services - 4

IBM - 4

NBER Summer Institute - 4

Decennial Census - 4

Core Based Statistical Area - 4

Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs - 4

TFPR - 4

Harmonized System - 4

Occupational Employment Statistics - 4

International Trade Research Report - 4

E32 - 4

2010 Census - 4

MIT Press - 4

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey - 4

Fabricated Metal Products - 4

State Energy Data System - 4

Social Security Administration - 4

Commodity Flow Survey - 4

European Commission - 4

Columbia University - 4

Administrative Records - 4

Electronic Data Interchange - 4

Quarterly Journal of Economics - 4

Computer Aided Design - 4

New England County Metropolitan - 4

Educational Services - 3

Public Administration - 3

Duke University - 3

Harvard Business School - 3

Princeton University - 3

Business Services - 3

Bureau of Labor - 3

American Community Survey - 3

National Institutes of Health - 3

Economic Research Service - 3

Ohio State University - 3

North American Industry Classi - 3

National Establishment Time Series - 3

New York Times - 3

Kauffman Firm Survey - 3

Statistics Canada - 3

Environmental Protection Agency - 3

George Mason University - 3

Company Organization Survey - 3

Journal of International Economics - 3

Foreign Direct Investment - 3

United States Census Bureau - 3

National Research Council - 3

Department of Agriculture - 3

Paycheck Protection Program - 3

Journal of Political Economy - 3

production - 113

manufacturing - 93

industrial - 66

sector - 63

econometric - 59

productivity growth - 57

produce - 53

investment - 51

innovation - 50

macroeconomic - 47

expenditure - 46

company - 45

labor - 45

enterprise - 44

recession - 43

estimating - 41

market - 40

technological - 39

sale - 39

employment growth - 38

gdp - 37

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productive - 34

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growth productivity - 31

efficiency - 31

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estimation - 24

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manufacturer - 22

endogeneity - 22

profit - 22

firms grow - 22

quarterly - 22

economically - 21

spillover - 21

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productivity plants - 21

earnings - 20

regression - 20

patent - 19

technology - 19

labor productivity - 19

establishment - 19

productivity measures - 19

factor productivity - 18

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productivity dynamics - 17

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producing - 17

firms productivity - 17

innovative - 16

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workforce - 16

productivity dispersion - 16

corporation - 15

productivity estimates - 15

trend - 15

firm growth - 15

measures productivity - 15

invention - 14

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productivity increases - 14

industry growth - 14

aggregate - 14

merger - 14

wages productivity - 13

specialization - 13

industry concentration - 13

regional - 13

depreciation - 12

innovating - 12

startup - 12

gain - 12

externality - 12

employee - 12

aggregate productivity - 12

longitudinal - 12

patenting - 11

rates productivity - 11

innovator - 11

sectoral - 11

endogenous - 11

growth firms - 11

declining - 11

export - 11

payroll - 11

monopolistic - 11

geographically - 11

turnover - 11

estimates productivity - 11

plant - 11

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productivity size - 10

larger firms - 10

metropolitan - 10

growth employment - 10

firm dynamics - 10

job growth - 10

employment dynamics - 10

analysis productivity - 10

investment productivity - 9

manufacturing productivity - 9

finance - 9

wage growth - 9

economic growth - 9

firms size - 9

diversification - 9

regress - 9

job - 9

dispersion productivity - 9

productivity differences - 9

younger firms - 9

plants industry - 9

venture - 8

innovation productivity - 8

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impact - 8

exogenous - 8

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stock - 8

productivity wage - 8

estimates production - 8

agriculture - 8

observed productivity - 8

regional economic - 8

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econometrician - 8

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capital - 8

corporate - 8

investor - 7

invest - 7

productivity shocks - 7

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research - 7

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firms young - 7

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reallocation productivity - 7

startup firms - 7

accounting - 7

productivity firms - 7

econometrically - 7

industry employment - 7

consumption - 7

spending - 7

area - 7

manufacturing plants - 7

region - 7

performance - 7

investing - 6

firm innovation - 6

productivity impacts - 6

researcher - 6

developed - 6

financial - 6

capital productivity - 6

city - 6

small firms - 6

decade - 6

import - 6

retail - 6

productivity analysis - 6

decline - 6

estimator - 6

quantity - 6

level productivity - 6

financing - 6

competitiveness - 6

plants industries - 6

efficient - 6

plants firms - 6

prospect - 5

monopolistically - 5

industry wages - 5

rent - 5

firms age - 5

regressing - 5

study - 5

heterogeneity - 5

shift - 5

employment changes - 5

labor statistics - 5

yield - 5

opportunity - 5

industry output - 5

profitable - 5

fluctuation - 5

manufacturing industries - 5

analysis - 5

aggregation - 5

statistical - 5

regional industry - 5

plant investment - 5

exporter - 5

firms plants - 5

estimates employment - 5

firm patenting - 4

hiring - 4

subsidy - 4

competitive - 4

retailer - 4

warehouse - 4

employment trends - 4

founder - 4

industry heterogeneity - 4

indicator - 4

country - 4

local economic - 4

trends employment - 4

tech - 4

transition - 4

manager - 4

average - 4

funding - 4

downturn - 4

technology adoption - 4

commodity - 4

industrialized - 4

meat - 4

agglomeration economies - 4

agglomeration - 4

plant employment - 4

utilization - 4

demography - 4

regional industries - 4

midwest - 4

computer - 4

measure - 4

state - 4

acquirer - 4

shipment - 4

textile - 4

managerial - 4

small businesses - 4

export growth - 4

exporting - 4

employment flows - 4

firms patents - 3

business startups - 3

patented - 3

patenting firms - 3

partnership - 3

leverage - 3

urban - 3

commerce - 3

consolidated - 3

employment estimates - 3

incorporated - 3

rural - 3

elasticity - 3

employment statistics - 3

autoregressive - 3

employment data - 3

employment production - 3

increase employment - 3

earn - 3

recessionary - 3

wealth - 3

percentile - 3

tax - 3

business survival - 3

oligopoly - 3

regressors - 3

population - 3

inflation - 3

economic census - 3

regulation - 3

multinational - 3

employment wages - 3

ownership - 3

agricultural - 3

farm - 3

geography - 3

fiscal - 3

substitute - 3

empirical - 3

subsidiary - 3

salary - 3

occupation - 3

management - 3

exported - 3

layoff - 3

tariff - 3

Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 202


  • Working Paper

    Property Rights, Firm Size and Investments in Innovation: Evidence from the America Invents Act

    May 2025

    Authors: James Driver

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-31

    I analyze whether a change in patent systems differentially affects firm-level innovation investments at patent-valuing firms of different sizes. Using legally required, economically representative, U.S. Census Bureau microdata, I separate firms into groups based on a firm's response to a question asking it to rank the degree of patent importance to its business and firm-size. I then measure how firms' innovation inputs/outputs respond to the America Invents Act (AIA). Results show the AIA reduced innovation investments at smaller, patent-valuing firms while increasing innovation investments at larger, patent-valuing firms, highlighting differential firm-size effects of patent policy and policy's importance to investments.
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  • Working Paper

    The Rising Returns to R&D: Ideas Are Not Getting Harder to Find

    May 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-29

    R&D investment has grown robustly, yet aggregate productivity growth has stagnated. Is this because 'ideas are getting harder to find'? This paper uses micro-data from the US Census Bureau to explore the relationship between R&D and productivity in the manufacturing sector from 1976 to 2018. We find that both the elasticity of output (TFP) with respect to R&D and the marginal returns to R&D have risen sharply. Exploring factors affecting returns, we conclude that R&D obsolescence rates must have risen. Using a novel estimation approach, we find consistent evidence of sharply rising technological rivalry. These findings suggest that R&D has become more effective at finding productivity-enhancing ideas but these ideas may also render rivals' technologies obsolete, making innovations more transient.
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  • Working Paper

    The Rise of Industrial AI in America: Microfoundations of the Productivity J-curve(s)

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-27

    We examine the prevalence and productivity dynamics of artificial intelligence (AI) in American manufacturing. Working with the Census Bureau to collect detailed large-scale data for 2017 and 2021, we focus on AI-related technologies with industrial applications. We find causal evidence of J-curve-shaped returns, where short-term performance losses precede longer-term gains. Consistent with costly adjustment taking place within core production processes, industrial AI use increases work-in-progress inventory, investment in industrial robots, and labor shedding, while harming productivity and profitability in the short run. These losses are unevenly distributed, concentrating among older businesses while being mitigated by growth-oriented business strategies and within-firm spillovers. Dynamics, however, matter: earlier (pre-2017) adopters exhibit stronger growth over time, conditional on survival. Notably, among older establishments, abandonment of structured production-management practices accounts for roughly one-third of these losses, revealing a specific channel through which intangible factors shape AI's impact. Taken together, these results provide novel evidence on the microfoundations of technology J-curves, identifying mechanisms and illuminating how and why they differ across firm types. These findings extend our understanding of modern General Purpose Technologies, explaining why their economic impact'exemplified here by AI'may initially disappoint, particularly in contexts dominated by older, established firms.
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  • Working Paper

    Startup Dynamics: Transitioning from Nonemployer Firms to Employer Firms, Survival, and Job Creation

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-26

    Understanding the dynamics of startup businesses' growth, exit, and survival is crucial for fostering entrepreneurship. Among the nearly 30 million registered businesses in the United States, fewer than six million have employees beyond the business owners. This research addresses the gap in understanding which companies transition to employer businesses and the mechanisms behind this process. Job creation remains a critical concern for policymakers, researchers, and advocacy groups. This study aims to illuminate the transition from non-employer businesses to employer businesses and explore job creation by new startups. Leveraging newly available microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau, we seek to gain deeper insights into firm survival, job creation by startups, and the transition from non-employer to employer status.
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  • Working Paper

    Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-21

    Relatively flat US output growth versus rising numbers of US researchers is often interpreted as evidence that "ideas are getting harder to find." We build a new 46-year panel tracking the universe of U.S. firms' patenting to investigate the micro underpinnings of this claim, separately examining the relationships between research inputs and ideas (patents) versus ideas and growth. Over our sample period, we find that researchers' patenting productivity is increasing, there is little evidence of any secular decline in high-quality patenting common to all firms, and the link between patents and growth is present, differs by type of idea, and is fairly stable. On the other hand, we find strong evidence of secular decreases in output unrelated to patenting, suggesting an important role for other factors. Together, these results invite renewed empirical and theoretical attention to the impact of ideas on growth. To that end, our patent-firm bridge, which will be available to researchers with approved access, is used to produce new, public-use statistics on the Business Dynamics of Patenting Firms (BDS-PF).
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  • Working Paper

    Investigating the Effect of Innovation Activities of Firms on Innovation Performance: Does Firm Size Matter?

    January 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-04

    Understanding the relationship between a firm's innovation activities and its performance has been of great interest to management scholars. While the literature on innovation activities is vast, there is a dearth of studies investigating the effect of key innovation activities of the firm on innovation outcomes in a single study, and whether their effects are dependent on the nature of firms, specifically firm size. Drawing from a longitudinal dataset from the Business Research & Development and Innovation Survey (BRDIS), and informed by contingency theory and resource orchestration theory, we examine the relationship between a firm's innovation activities - including its Research & Development (R&D) investment, securing patents, collaborative R&D, R&D toward new business areas, and grants for R&D - and its product innovation and process innovation. We also investigate whether these relationships are contingent on firm size. Consistent with contingency theory, we find a significant difference between large firms and small firms regarding how they enhance product innovation and process innovation. Large firms can improve product innovation by securing patents through applications and issuances, coupled with active participation in collaborative R&D efforts. Conversely, smaller firms concentrate their efforts on the number of patents applied for, directing R&D efforts toward new business areas, and often leveraging grants for R&D efforts. To achieve process innovation, a similar dichotomy emerges. Larger firms demonstrate a commitment to securing patents, engage in R&D efforts tailored to new business areas, and actively collaborate with external entities on R&D efforts. In contrast, smaller firms primarily focus on securing patents and channel their R&D efforts toward new business pursuits. This nuanced exploration highlights the varied strategies employed by large and small firms in navigating the intricate landscape of both product and process innovation. The results shed light on specific innovation activities as antecedents of innovation outcomes and demonstrate how the effectiveness of such assets is contingent upon firm size.
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  • Working Paper

    Industry Shakeouts after an Innovation Breakthrough

    November 2024

    Authors: Xiaoyang Li

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-70

    Conventional wisdom suggests that after a technological breakthrough, the number of active firms first surges, and then sharply declines, in what is known as a 'shakeout'. This paper challenges that notion with new empirical evidence from across the U.S. economy, revealing that shakeouts are the exception, not the rule. I develop a statistical strategy to detect breakthroughs by isolating sustained anomalies in net firm entry rates, offering a robust alternative to narrative-driven approaches that can be applied to all industries. The results of this strategy, which reliably align with well-documented breakthroughs and remain consistent across various validation tests, uncover a novel trend: the number of entry-driven breakthroughs has been declining over time. The variability and frequent absence of shakeouts across breakthrough industries are consistent with breakthroughs primarily occurring in industries with low returns to scale and with modest learning curves, shifting the narrative on the nature of innovation over the past forty years in the U.S.
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  • Working Paper

    The Role of R&D Factors in Economic Growth

    November 2024

    Authors: Lorenz Ekerdt

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-69

    This paper studies factor usage in the R&D sector. I show that the usage of non-labor inputs in R&D is significant, and that their usage has grown much more rapidly than the R&D workforce. Using a standard growth decomposition applied to the aggregate idea production function, I estimate that at least 77% of idea growth since the early 1960s can be attributed to the growth of non-labor inputs in R&D. I demonstrate that a similar pattern would hold on the balanced growth path of a standard semi-endogenous growth model, and thus that the decomposition is not simply a by-product of rising research intensity. I then show that combining long-running differences in factor growth rates with non-unitary elasticities of substitution in idea production leads to a slowdown in idea growth whenever labor and capital are complementary. I conclude by estimating this elasticity of substitution and demonstrate that the results favor complimentarities.
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  • Working Paper

    Entry Costs Rise with Growth

    October 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-63

    Over time and across states in the U.S., the number of firms is more closely tied to overall employment than to output per worker. In many models of firm dynamics, trade, and growth with a free entry condition, these facts imply that the costs of creating a new firm increase sharply with productivity growth. This increase in entry costs can stem from the rising cost of labor used in entry and weak or negative knowledge spillovers from prior entry. Our findings suggest that productivity-enhancing policies will not induce firm entry, thereby limiting the total impact of such policies on welfare.
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  • Working Paper

    The Geography of Inventors and Local Knowledge Spillovers in R&D

    October 2024

    Authors: Brian C. Fujiy

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-59

    I causally estimate local knowledge spillovers in R&D and quantify their importance when implementing R&D policies. Using a new administrative panel on German inventors, I estimate these spillovers by isolating quasi-exogenous variation from the arrival of East German inventors across West Germany after the Reunification of Germany in 1990. Increasing the number of inventors by 1% increases inventor productivity by 0.4%. I build a spatial model of innovation, and show that these spillovers are crucial when reducing migration costs for inventors or implementing R&D subsidies to promote economic activity.
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