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Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'industrial'

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Center for Economic Studies - 93

Standard Industrial Classification - 91

North American Industry Classification System - 73

Longitudinal Business Database - 68

Annual Survey of Manufactures - 65

Longitudinal Research Database - 63

National Science Foundation - 57

Bureau of Labor Statistics - 55

Bureau of Economic Analysis - 51

Ordinary Least Squares - 50

Census of Manufactures - 49

National Bureau of Economic Research - 43

Total Factor Productivity - 40

Census of Manufacturing Firms - 29

Economic Census - 28

Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board - 25

Cobb-Douglas - 24

Federal Statistical Research Data Center - 22

Chicago Census Research Data Center - 22

Metropolitan Statistical Area - 19

Internal Revenue Service - 18

Special Sworn Status - 18

County Business Patterns - 17

Survey of Manufacturing Technology - 17

Patent and Trademark Office - 17

Federal Reserve Bank - 16

Current Population Survey - 16

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - 16

Standard Statistical Establishment List - 15

Business Dynamics Statistics - 14

Business Register - 14

Employer Identification Numbers - 14

Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics - 13

Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database - 13

Permanent Plant Number - 13

Office of Management and Budget - 12

Research Data Center - 12

Department of Commerce - 12

Environmental Protection Agency - 12

Harmonized System - 11

Disclosure Review Board - 11

Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database - 11

American Community Survey - 10

Service Annual Survey - 10

Survey of Industrial Research and Development - 9

Energy Information Administration - 9

Census Bureau Business Register - 9

World Trade Organization - 9

New York University - 9

Information and Communication Technology Survey - 9

World Bank - 9

International Standard Industrial Classification - 9

Herfindahl Hirschman Index - 8

Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey - 8

Company Organization Survey - 8

North American Industry Classi - 8

Labor Productivity - 8

Social Security Administration - 8

American Economic Review - 8

Harvard University - 8

National Establishment Time Series - 7

Insurance Information Institute - 7

Herfindahl-Hirschman - 7

United Nations - 7

American Economic Association - 7

Fabricated Metal Products - 7

Generalized Method of Moments - 7

Heckscher-Ohlin - 7

Computer Aided Design - 7

Federal Reserve System - 7

New England County Metropolitan - 7

Business R&D and Innovation Survey - 6

Business Research and Development and Innovation Survey - 6

National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics - 6

Annual Business Survey - 6

International Trade Commission - 6

Retail Trade - 6

National Income and Product Accounts - 6

Wholesale Trade - 6

Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Industries - 6

Kauffman Foundation - 6

United States Census Bureau - 6

Computer Network Use Supplement - 6

Yale University - 6

University of Chicago - 6

Foreign Direct Investment - 6

Review of Economics and Statistics - 6

American Statistical Association - 6

Alfred P Sloan Foundation - 5

Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies - 5

Department of Economics - 5

Department of Energy - 5

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - 5

IBM - 5

Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation - 5

IQR - 5

Occupational Employment Statistics - 5

University of Maryland - 5

Department of Labor - 5

TFPQ - 5

Decennial Census - 5

Department of Homeland Security - 5

National Research Council - 5

Social Security Number - 5

Statistics Canada - 5

2010 Census - 5

North American Free Trade Agreement - 5

Administrative Records - 5

Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas - 5

Journal of Economic Literature - 5

Small Business Administration - 5

Value Added - 4

E32 - 4

NBER Summer Institute - 4

Census of Retail Trade - 4

Census of Services - 4

Technical Services - 4

European Union - 4

Standard Occupational Classification - 4

TFPR - 4

European Commission - 4

Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs - 4

Social Security - 4

Department of Defense - 4

State Energy Data System - 4

Board of Governors - 4

Quarterly Journal of Economics - 4

Electronic Data Interchange - 4

Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures - 4

Department of Agriculture - 4

Federal Trade Commission - 4

VAR - 3

Business Employment Dynamics - 3

Net Present Value - 3

University of Michigan - 3

1940 Census - 3

Core Based Statistical Area - 3

Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics - 3

Professional Services - 3

Limited Liability Company - 3

Federal Reserve Board of Governors - 3

Protected Identification Key - 3

Person Validation System - 3

Federal Register - 3

Princeton University - 3

Unemployment Insurance - 3

Columbia University - 3

Georgetown University - 3

Commodity Flow Survey - 3

Customs and Border Protection - 3

Journal of Political Economy - 3

Journal of International Economics - 3

MIT Press - 3

Quarterly Workforce Indicators - 3

National Ambient Air Quality Standards - 3

Bureau of Labor - 3

Boston Research Data Center - 3

New York Times - 3

Paycheck Protection Program - 3

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey - 3

Toxics Release Inventory - 3

manufacturing - 134

production - 110

growth - 66

sector - 59

produce - 57

manufacturer - 50

labor - 45

econometric - 43

market - 40

technological - 39

macroeconomic - 39

innovation - 38

enterprise - 37

technology - 34

sale - 34

export - 32

expenditure - 31

gdp - 31

employ - 30

investment - 29

workforce - 27

industry productivity - 27

economist - 26

factory - 26

demand - 26

recession - 26

company - 25

productivity growth - 24

efficiency - 23

economically - 22

productive - 21

import - 21

establishment - 21

estimating - 20

employed - 20

employee - 19

monopolistic - 19

product - 19

worker - 18

patent - 17

revenue - 17

growth productivity - 17

inventory - 17

payroll - 17

regional - 17

producing - 16

multinational - 16

endogeneity - 15

job - 15

sectoral - 15

heterogeneity - 15

plants industry - 15

invention - 14

entrepreneurship - 14

employment growth - 13

tariff - 13

specialization - 13

industry growth - 13

exporter - 13

aggregate - 13

tech - 13

regression - 13

occupation - 12

patenting - 12

earnings - 12

organizational - 12

spillover - 11

wholesale - 11

industry concentration - 11

classification - 11

emission - 11

manufacturing industries - 11

diversification - 11

factor productivity - 10

estimation - 10

innovate - 10

labor markets - 10

plant productivity - 10

manufacturing plants - 10

region - 10

industry variation - 10

productivity plants - 10

productivity dynamics - 9

industry heterogeneity - 9

externality - 9

entrepreneur - 9

outsourcing - 9

industrial classification - 9

area - 9

technology adoption - 9

industrialized - 9

merger - 9

survey - 9

consumption - 9

commodity - 9

depreciation - 8

quarterly - 8

trend - 8

development - 8

warehousing - 8

firms productivity - 8

productivity dispersion - 8

entrepreneurial - 8

classified - 8

classifying - 8

productivity measures - 8

profit - 8

technical - 8

exporting - 8

metropolitan - 8

regulation - 8

environmental - 8

international trade - 8

plants industries - 8

profitability - 7

productivity estimates - 7

wages productivity - 7

midwest - 7

outsourced - 7

productivity increases - 7

firms grow - 7

warehouse - 7

industry wages - 7

fuel - 7

energy - 7

epa - 7

measures productivity - 7

aggregate productivity - 7

econometrician - 7

geographically - 7

shipment - 7

firms export - 7

employing - 7

pollution - 7

efficient - 7

turnover - 7

regional economic - 7

manufacturing productivity - 6

exogeneity - 6

endogenous - 6

commerce - 6

regressing - 6

workplace - 6

supplier - 6

exported - 6

trading - 6

acquisition - 6

labor productivity - 6

agency - 6

data - 6

microdata - 6

statistical - 6

agglomeration economies - 6

agglomeration - 6

regional industry - 6

aggregation - 6

productivity shocks - 5

innovation productivity - 5

rates productivity - 5

impact - 5

reallocation productivity - 5

retail - 5

disparity - 5

importer - 5

sourcing - 5

datasets - 5

oligopolistic - 5

firms plants - 5

industry employment - 5

innovative - 5

patented - 5

patents firms - 5

monopolistically - 5

city - 5

dispersion productivity - 5

computer - 5

analysis productivity - 5

innovator - 5

econometrically - 5

electricity - 5

productivity firms - 5

pollutant - 5

polluting - 5

industry output - 5

industries estimate - 5

globalization - 5

cost - 5

price - 5

quantity - 5

estimates productivity - 5

regional industries - 5

plant - 5

competitiveness - 5

agricultural - 5

innovating - 4

employment production - 4

employment dynamics - 4

growth employment - 4

job growth - 4

consolidated - 4

regress - 4

employment estimates - 4

plant employment - 4

venture - 4

wage effects - 4

wage industries - 4

wage data - 4

productivity differences - 4

effect wages - 4

developed - 4

firms patents - 4

salary - 4

labor statistics - 4

oligopoly - 4

regulatory - 4

longitudinal - 4

productivity size - 4

subsidiary - 4

restructuring - 4

trade models - 4

imported - 4

firms trade - 4

database - 4

corporation - 4

firms employment - 4

report - 4

record - 4

competitor - 4

good - 4

firms exporting - 4

corporate - 4

employment flows - 4

locality - 4

incorporated - 4

productivity analysis - 4

heterogeneous - 4

exogenous - 4

shift - 4

agriculture - 4

textile - 4

layoff - 4

proprietorship - 4

relocation - 4

research - 4

performance - 4

stock - 4

observed productivity - 4

prospect - 3

regressors - 3

financial - 3

finance - 3

employment trends - 3

unobserved - 3

retailer - 3

wage differences - 3

utilization - 3

refinery - 3

regulation productivity - 3

level productivity - 3

productivity wage - 3

geography - 3

trademark - 3

patenting firms - 3

firm patenting - 3

amenity - 3

discrimination - 3

estimates employment - 3

wage regressions - 3

spending - 3

hiring - 3

declining - 3

state - 3

country - 3

substitute - 3

energy efficiency - 3

foreign trade - 3

immigrant - 3

importing - 3

pricing - 3

cluster - 3

yield - 3

plant investment - 3

gain - 3

export growth - 3

urbanization - 3

strategic - 3

small firms - 3

rural - 3

study - 3

plants firms - 3

firm growth - 3

Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 191


  • Working Paper

    The Rising Returns to R&D: Ideas Are Not Getting Harder to Find

    May 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-29

    R&D investment has grown robustly, yet aggregate productivity growth has stagnated. Is this because 'ideas are getting harder to find'? This paper uses micro-data from the US Census Bureau to explore the relationship between R&D and productivity in the manufacturing sector from 1976 to 2018. We find that both the elasticity of output (TFP) with respect to R&D and the marginal returns to R&D have risen sharply. Exploring factors affecting returns, we conclude that R&D obsolescence rates must have risen. Using a novel estimation approach, we find consistent evidence of sharply rising technological rivalry. These findings suggest that R&D has become more effective at finding productivity-enhancing ideas but these ideas may also render rivals' technologies obsolete, making innovations more transient.
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  • Working Paper

    The Rise of Industrial AI in America: Microfoundations of the Productivity J-curve(s)

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-27

    We examine the prevalence and productivity dynamics of artificial intelligence (AI) in American manufacturing. Working with the Census Bureau to collect detailed large-scale data for 2017 and 2021, we focus on AI-related technologies with industrial applications. We find causal evidence of J-curve-shaped returns, where short-term performance losses precede longer-term gains. Consistent with costly adjustment taking place within core production processes, industrial AI use increases work-in-progress inventory, investment in industrial robots, and labor shedding, while harming productivity and profitability in the short run. These losses are unevenly distributed, concentrating among older businesses while being mitigated by growth-oriented business strategies and within-firm spillovers. Dynamics, however, matter: earlier (pre-2017) adopters exhibit stronger growth over time, conditional on survival. Notably, among older establishments, abandonment of structured production-management practices accounts for roughly one-third of these losses, revealing a specific channel through which intangible factors shape AI's impact. Taken together, these results provide novel evidence on the microfoundations of technology J-curves, identifying mechanisms and illuminating how and why they differ across firm types. These findings extend our understanding of modern General Purpose Technologies, explaining why their economic impact'exemplified here by AI'may initially disappoint, particularly in contexts dominated by older, established firms.
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  • Working Paper

    The Effect of Oil News Shocks on Job Creation and Destruction

    January 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-06

    Using data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) and the Census of Manufacturing (CMF), we construct quarterly measures of job creation and destruction by 3-digit NAICS industries spanning from 1980Q3-2016Q4. These long series allow us to address three questions regarding the effect of oil news shocks. What is the average effect of oil news shocks on sectoral labor reallocation? What characteristics explain the observed heterogeneity in the average responses across industries? Has the response of US manufacturing changed over time? We find evidence that oil news shocks exert only a moderate effect on total manufacturing net employment growth but lead to a significant increase in job reallocation. However, we find a high degree of heterogeneity in responses across industries. We then show that the cross-industry variation in the sensitivity of net employment growth and excess job reallocation to oil news shocks is related to differences in energy costs, the rate of energy to capital expenditures, and the share of mature firms in the industry. Finally, we illustrate how the dynamic response of sectoral job creation and destruction to oil news shocks has declined since the mid-2000s.
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  • Working Paper

    Industry Shakeouts after an Innovation Breakthrough

    November 2024

    Authors: Xiaoyang Li

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-70

    Conventional wisdom suggests that after a technological breakthrough, the number of active firms first surges, and then sharply declines, in what is known as a 'shakeout'. This paper challenges that notion with new empirical evidence from across the U.S. economy, revealing that shakeouts are the exception, not the rule. I develop a statistical strategy to detect breakthroughs by isolating sustained anomalies in net firm entry rates, offering a robust alternative to narrative-driven approaches that can be applied to all industries. The results of this strategy, which reliably align with well-documented breakthroughs and remain consistent across various validation tests, uncover a novel trend: the number of entry-driven breakthroughs has been declining over time. The variability and frequent absence of shakeouts across breakthrough industries are consistent with breakthroughs primarily occurring in industries with low returns to scale and with modest learning curves, shifting the narrative on the nature of innovation over the past forty years in the U.S.
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  • Working Paper

    The Role of R&D Factors in Economic Growth

    November 2024

    Authors: Lorenz Ekerdt

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-69

    This paper studies factor usage in the R&D sector. I show that the usage of non-labor inputs in R&D is significant, and that their usage has grown much more rapidly than the R&D workforce. Using a standard growth decomposition applied to the aggregate idea production function, I estimate that at least 77% of idea growth since the early 1960s can be attributed to the growth of non-labor inputs in R&D. I demonstrate that a similar pattern would hold on the balanced growth path of a standard semi-endogenous growth model, and thus that the decomposition is not simply a by-product of rising research intensity. I then show that combining long-running differences in factor growth rates with non-unitary elasticities of substitution in idea production leads to a slowdown in idea growth whenever labor and capital are complementary. I conclude by estimating this elasticity of substitution and demonstrate that the results favor complimentarities.
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  • Working Paper

    The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in U.S. Labor Markets

    October 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-65

    Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions.
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  • Working Paper

    The Geography of Inventors and Local Knowledge Spillovers in R&D

    October 2024

    Authors: Brian C. Fujiy

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-59

    I causally estimate local knowledge spillovers in R&D and quantify their importance when implementing R&D policies. Using a new administrative panel on German inventors, I estimate these spillovers by isolating quasi-exogenous variation from the arrival of East German inventors across West Germany after the Reunification of Germany in 1990. Increasing the number of inventors by 1% increases inventor productivity by 0.4%. I build a spatial model of innovation, and show that these spillovers are crucial when reducing migration costs for inventors or implementing R&D subsidies to promote economic activity.
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  • Working Paper

    Productivity Dispersion and Structural Change in Retail Trade

    December 2023

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-23-60R

    The retail sector has changed from a sector full of small firms to one dominated by large, national firms. We study how this transformation has impacted productivity levels, growth, and dispersion between 1987 and 2017. We describe this transformation using three overlapping phases: expansion (1980s and 1990s), consolidation (2000s), and stagnation (2010s). We document five findings that help us understand these phases. First, productivity growth was high during the consolidation phase but has fallen more recently. Second, entering establishments drove productivity growth during the expansion phase, but continuing establishments have increased in importance more recently. Third, national chains have more productive establishments than single-unit firms on average, but some single-unit establishments are highly productive. Fourth, productivity dispersion is significant and increasing over time. Finally, more productive firms pay higher wages and grow more quickly. Together, these results suggest that the increasing importance of large national retail firms has been an important driver of productivity and wage growth in the retail sector.
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  • Working Paper

    Local and National Concentration Trends in Jobs and Sales: The Role of Structural Transformation

    November 2023

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-23-59

    National U.S. industrial concentration rose between 1992-2017. Simultaneously, the Herfindhahl Index of local (six-digit-NAICS by county) employment concentration fell. This divergence between national and local employment concentration is due to structural transformation. Both sales and employment concentration rose within industry-by-county cells. But activity shifted from concentrated Manufacturing towards relatively un-concentrated Services. A stronger between-sector shift in employment relative to sales explains the fall in local employment concentration. Had sectoral employment shares remained at their 1992 levels, average local employment concentration would have risen by 9% by 2017 rather than falling by 7%.
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  • Working Paper

    Temperature and Local Industry Concentration

    October 2023

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-23-51

    We use plant-level data from the US Census of Manufacturers to study the short and long run effects of temperature on manufacturing activity. We document that temperature shocks significantly increase energy costs and lower the productivity of small manufacturing plants, while large plants are mostly unaffected. In US counties that experienced higher increases in average temperatures between the 1980s and the 2010s, these heterogeneous effects have led to higher concentration of manufacturing activity within large plants, and a reallocation of labor from small to large manufacturing establishments. We offer a preliminary discussion of potential mechanisms explaining why large manufacturing firms might be better equipped for long-run adaptation to climate change, including their ability to hedge across locations, easier access to finance, and higher managerial skills.
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