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The Impact of Industrial Opt-Out from Utility Sponsored Energy Efficiency Programs
October 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-52
Industry accounts for one-third of energy consumption in the US. Studies suggest that energy efficiency opportunities represent a potential energy resource for regulated utilities and have resulted in rate of return regulated demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency (EE) programs. However, many large customers are allowed to self-direct or opt-out. In the Carolinas (NC and SC), over half of industrial and large commercial customers have selected to opt out. Although these customers claim they invest in EE improvements when it is economic and cost-effective to do so, there is no mechanism to validate whether they actually achieved energy savings. This project examines the industrial energy efficiency between the program participants and non participants in the Carolinas by utilizing the non-public Census of Manufacturing data and the public list of firms that have chosen to opt out. We compare the relative energy efficiency between the stay-in and opt-out plants. The t-test results suggest opt-out plants are less efficient. However, the opt-out decisions are not random; large plants or plants belonging to large firms are more likely to opt out, possibly because they have more information and resources. We conduct a propensity score matching method to account for factors that could affect the opt-out decisions. We find that the opt-out plants perform at least as well or slightly better than the stay-in plants. The relative performance of the opt-out firms suggest that they may not need utility program resources to obtain similar levels of efficiency from the stay-in group.
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A Loan by any Other Name:
How State Policies Changed Advanced Tax Refund Payments
June 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-04
In this work, I examine the impact of state-level regulation of Refund Anticipation Loans (RALs) on the increase in the use of Refund Anticipation Checks (RACs) and on taxpayer outcomes. Both RALs and RACs are products offered by tax-preparers that provide taxpayers with an earlier refund (in the case of a RAL) or a temporary bank account from which tax preparation fees can be deducted (in the case of a RAC). Each product is costly compared with the value of the refund, and they are often marketed to low-income taxpayers who may be liquidity constrained or unbanked. States have responded to the potentially predatory nature of RALs through regulation, leading to a switch to RACs. Using zip-code-level tax data, I examine the effects of various state-level policies on RAL activity and the transition of tax-preparers to RACs. I then specifically analyze New Jersey's interest rate cap on RALs, a regulation that was accompanied by greater enforcement of existing tax-preparer regulations. Employing an empirical strategy that uses variation in taxpayer location, which should be uninfluenced by tax preparers' decisions to provide these products and a state's decision to regulate them, I find increases in RAL and RAC use for taxpayers living near New Jersey's border with another state. Furthermore, I find that these same border taxpayers reported more social program use and more persons per household - a finding that is in line with the results of similar research into the effects of short-term borrowing on family finances.
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Do EPA Regulations Affect Labor Demand? Evidence From the Pulp and Paper Industry
August 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-39
The popular belief is that environmental regulation must reduce employment, since suchregulations are expected to increase production costs, which would raise prices and thus reducedemand for output, at least in a competitive market. Although this effect might seem obvious, a careful microeconomic analysis shows that it is not guaranteed. Even if environmental regulation reduces output in the regulated industry, abating pollution could require additional labor (e.g. to monitor the abatement capital and meet EPA reporting requirements). It is also possible for pollution abatement technologies to be labor enhancing. In this paper we analyze how a particular EPA regulation, the so-called 'Cluster Rule' (CR) imposed on the pulp and paper industry in 2001, affected employment in that sector. Using establishment level data from the Census of Manufacturers and Annual Survey of Manufacturers at the U.S. Census Bureau from 1992-2007 we find evidence of small employment declines (on the order of 3%-7%), which are sometimes statistically significant, at a subset of the plants covered by the CR.
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ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT: A REASSESSMENT
July 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-36
This paper examines the impact of environmental regulation on industry employment, using a structural model based on data from the Census Bureau's Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures Survey. This model was developed in an earlier paper (Morgenstern, Pizer, and Shih (2002) - MPS). We extend MPS by examining additional industries and additional years. We find widely varying estimates across industries, including many implausibly large positive employment effects. We explore several possible explanations for these results, without reaching a satisfactory conclusion. Our results call into question the frequent use of the average impacts estimated by MPS as a basis for calculating the quantitative impacts of new environmental regulations on employment.
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Local Environmental Regulation and Plant-Level Productivity
September 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-30R
This paper examines the impact of environmental regulation on the productivity of manufacturing plants in the United States. Establishment-level data from three Censuses of Manufactures are used to estimate 3-factor Cobb-Douglas production functions that include a measure of the stringency of environmental regulation faced by manufacturing plants. In contrast to previous studies, this paper examines effects on plants in all manufacturing industries, not just those in 'dirty' industries. Further, this paper employs spatial-temporal variation in environmental compliance costs to identify effects, using a time-varying county-level index that is based on multiple years of establishment-level data from the Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures survey and the Annual Survey of Manufactures. Results suggest that, for the average manufacturing plant, the effect on productivity of being in a county with higher environmental compliance costs is relatively small and often not statistically significant. For the average plant, the main effect of environmental regulation may not be in the spatial and temporal dimensions.
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U.S. Trade in Toxics: The Case of Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22)
September 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-29
This paper explores whether environmental regulation affects where pollution-intensive goods are produced. Here we examine chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22), a chemical designated as toxic in 1994 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Toxics Release Inventory (TRI). Trends show a decline in the number of domestic producers of this chemical, a decline in the number of manufacturing facilities using it, and an increase in the number (and share) of facilities claiming to import it. Transaction-level trade data show an increase in the import of HCFC-22 imports since its TRI listing ' an increase that is faster than that of all non-TRI listed chemicals. This is suggestive of a pollution haven effect. Meanwhile, we find that the vast majority of U.S. imports of HCFC-22 come from OECD countries. However, an increase in the share of imports from non-OECD countries since the chemical's listing suggests a shift of production to countries with more lax environmental standards. While the findings here are suggestive of regulatory effects, more rigorous analyses are needed to rule out other possible explanations.
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On Spatial Heterogeneity in Environmental Compliance Costs
September 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-25R
This paper examines the extent of variation in regulatory stringency below the state level, using establishment-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures (PACE) survey to estimate a county-level index of environmental compliance costs (ECC). County-level variation is found to explain 11-18 times more of the variation in ECC than state-level variation alone, and the range of ECC within a state is often large. At least 34% of U.S. counties have ECC that are statistically different from their states'. Results suggest that important spatial variation is lost in state-level studies of environmental regulation.
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The Direct and Indirect Costs of Food Safety Regulation
September 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-31
The cost of compliance with the Pathogen Reduction Hazard Analysis Critical Control Program (PR/HACCP) rule of 1996 has been controversial since it was first proposed. Surveys have provided some cost information but examined plant size and other indirect effects with limited data and did not make cost estimates of direct cost components, such as mandated tasks. This paper addresses those deficiencies with data from a national survey of meat and poultry plants on PR/HACCP costs. Results indicate that (1) mandated tasks are the most costly component of the PR/HACCP rule, (2) regulation favors large plants over small ones, and (3) private actions are nearly as costly as direct regulation.
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Estimating the Hidden Costs of Environmental Regulation
May 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-10
This paper examines whether accounting systems identify all the costs of environmental regulation. We estimate the relation between the 'visible' cost of regulatory compliance, i.e., costs that are correctly classified in firms' accounting systems, and 'hidden' costs i.e., costs that are embedded in other accounts. We use plant-level data from 55 steel mills to estimate hidden costs, and we follow up with structured interviews of corporate-level managers and plant-level accountants. Empirical results show that a $1 increase in the visible cost of environmental regulation is associated with an increase in total cost (at the margin) of $10-11, of which $9-10 are hidden in other accounts. The findings suggest that inappropriate identification and accumulation of the costs of environmental compliance are likely to lead to distorted costs in firms subject to environmental regulation.
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Manufacturing Plant Location: Does State Pollution Regulation Matter?
July 1997
Working Paper Number:
CES-97-08
This paper tests whether differences across states in pollution regulation affect the location of manufacturing activity in the U.S. Plant-level data from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Research Database is used to identify new plant births in each state over the 1963-1987 period. This is combined with several measures of state regulatory intensity, including business pollution abatement spending, regulatory enforcement activity, congressional pro-environment voting, and an index of state environmental laws. A significant connection is found: states with more stringent environmental regulation have fewer new manufacturing plants. These results persist across a variety of econometric specifications, and the strongest regulatory coefficients are similar in magnitude to thos4e on other factors expected to influence location, such as unionization rates. However, a subsample of high-pollution industries, which might have been expected to show much larger impacts, gets similar coefficients. This raises the possibility that differences between states other than environmental regulation might be influencing the results.
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