The US EPA's command-and-control NOx policies of the early 1990s are associated with a 3.1 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of manufacturing plants vertically integrating the electricity generation process. During the same period California adopted a cap-and-trade program for NOx emissions that resulted in no significant impact on distributed electricity generation in manufacturing. These results suggest that traditional command-and-control approaches to air pollution may exacerbate other market failures such as the energy efficiency gap, because distributed generation is generally recognized as a more energy efficient means of producing electricity
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The U.S. Manufacturing Sector's Response to Higher Electricity Prices: Evidence from State-Level Renewable Portfolio Standards
October 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-47
While several papers examine the effects of renewable portfolio standards (RPS) on electricity prices, they mainly rely on state-level data and there has been little research on how RPS policies affect manufacturing activity via their effect on electricity prices. Using plant-level data for the entire U.S. manufacturing sector and all electric utilities from 1992 ' 2015, we jointly estimate the effect of RPS adoption and stringency on plant-level electricity prices and production decisions. To ensure that our results are not sensitive to possible pre-existing differences across manufacturing plants in RPS and non-RPS states, we implement coarsened exact covariate matching. Our results suggest that electricity prices for plants in RPS states averaged about 2% higher than in non-RPS states, notably lower than prior estimates based on state-level data. In response to these higher electricity prices, we estimate that plant electricity usage declined by 1.2% for all plants and 1.8% for energy-intensive plants, broadly consistent with published estimates of the elasticity of electricity demand for industrial users. We find smaller declines in output, employment, and hours worked (relative to the decline in electricity use). Finally, several key RPS policy design features that vary substantially from state-to-state produce heterogeneous effects on plant-level electricity prices.
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Relative Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Programs versus Market Based Climate Policies in the Chemical Industry
April 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-16
This paper addresses the relative effectiveness of market vs program based climate policies. We compute the carbon price resulting in an equivalent reduction in energy from programs that eliminate the efficiency gap. A reduced-form stochastic frontier energy demand analysis of plant level electricity and fuel data, from energy-intensive chemical sectors, jointly estimates the distribution of energy efficiency and underlying price elasticities. The analysis controls for plant level price endogeneity and heterogeneity to obtain a decomposition of efficiency into persistent (PE) and time-varying (TVE) components. Total inefficiency is relatively small and price elasticities are relatively high. If all plants performed at the 90th percentile of their efficiency distribution, the reduction in energy is between 4% and 13%. A modest carbon price of between $9.48/ton and $14.01/ton CO2 would achieve reductions in energy use equivalent to all manufacturing plants making improvements to close the efficiency gap.
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The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Competiveness of U.S. Manufacturing
January 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-03
Whether and to what extent environmental regulations influence the competitiveness of firms remains a hotly debated issue. Using detailed production data from tens of thousands of U.S. manufacturing plants drawn from Annual Survey of Manufactures, we estimate the effects of environmental regulations'captured by the Clean Air Act Amendments' division of counties into pollutant-specific nonattainment and attainment categories'on manufacturing plants' total factor productivity (TFP) levels. We find that among surviving polluting plants, a nonattainment designation is associated with a roughly 2.6 percent decline in TFP. The regulations governing ozone have particularly discernable effects on productivity, though effects are also seen among particulates and sulfur dioxide emitters. Carbon monoxide nonattainment, on the other hand, appears to increase measured TFP, though this appears to be concentrated among refineries. When we apply corrections for two likely sources of positive bias in these estimates (price mismeasurement and sample selection on survival), we estimate that the total TFP loss for polluting plants in nonattaining counties is 4.8 percent. This corresponds to an annual lost output in the manufacturing sector of roughly $14.7 billion in 1987 dollars ($24.4 billion in 2009 dollars). These costs have important implications for both the intensity and location of firm expansions.
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Technology Lock-In and Costs of Delayed Climate Policy
July 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-33
This paper studies the implications of current energy prices for future energy efficiency and climate policy. Using U.S. Census microdata and quasi-experimental variation in energy prices, we first show that manufacturing plants that open when electricity prices are low consume more energy throughout their lifetime, regardless of current electricity prices. We then estimate that a persistent bias of technological change toward energy can explain the long-term effects of entry-year electricity prices on energy intensity. Overall, this 'technology lock-in' implies that increasing entry-year electricity prices by 10% would decrease a plant's energy intensity of production by 3% throughout its lifetime.
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The Energy Efficiency Gap and Energy Price Responsiveness in Food Processing
June 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-18
This paper estimates stochastic frontier energy demand functions with non-public, plant-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau to measure the energy efficiency gap and energy price elasticities in the food processing industry. The estimates are for electricity and fuel use in 4 food processing sectors, based on the disaggregation of this industry used by the National Energy Modeling System Industrial Demand Module. The estimated demand functions control for plant inputs and output, energy prices, and other observables including 6-digit NAICS industry designations. Own price elasticities range from 0.6 to -0.9 with little evidence of fuel/electricity substitution. The magnitude of the efficiency estimates is sensitive to the assumptions but consistently reveal that few plants achieve 100% efficiency. Defining a 'practical level of energy efficiency' as the 95th percentile of the efficiency distributions and averaging across all the models result in a ~20% efficiency gap. However, most of the potential reductions in energy use from closing this efficiency gap are from plants that are 'low hanging fruit'; 13% of the 20% potential reduction in the efficiency gap can be obtained by bringing the lower half of the efficiency distribution up to just the median level of observed performance. New plants do exhibit higher energy efficiency than existing plants which is statistically significant, but the difference is small for most of the industry; ranging from a low of 0.4% to a high of 5.7%.
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Estimating the Hidden Costs of Environmental Regulation
May 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-10
This paper examines whether accounting systems identify all the costs of environmental regulation. We estimate the relation between the 'visible' cost of regulatory compliance, i.e., costs that are correctly classified in firms' accounting systems, and 'hidden' costs i.e., costs that are embedded in other accounts. We use plant-level data from 55 steel mills to estimate hidden costs, and we follow up with structured interviews of corporate-level managers and plant-level accountants. Empirical results show that a $1 increase in the visible cost of environmental regulation is associated with an increase in total cost (at the margin) of $10-11, of which $9-10 are hidden in other accounts. The findings suggest that inappropriate identification and accumulation of the costs of environmental compliance are likely to lead to distorted costs in firms subject to environmental regulation.
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Air Pollution Abatement Costs Under the Clean Air Act: Evidence from the PACE Survey
December 2001
Working Paper Number:
CES-01-12
This paper uses establishment-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures (PACE) survey to investigate the effects of air quality regulation on the air pollution abatement capital expenditures and operating costs of manufacturing plants from 1979-1988. Results, based on some 90,000 observations, show that heavy emitters of the 'criteria' air pollutants (covered under the Clean Air Act) had significantly larger APA costs, and those subject to greater 'local' regulation (due to county NAAQS non-attainment) had expenditures that were greater still. The local regulation of a particular air pollutant generally resulted in hundreds of thousands of dollars (or more) of additional costs, with larger establishments and capital expenditures disproportionately affected. Federal and state environmental standards appear to have played a notable role, particularly in industries producing chemicals, petroleum, primary metals, and nonmetallic minerals. The findings of this paper support those of several recent studies.
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The Impact of Industrial Opt-Out from Utility Sponsored Energy Efficiency Programs
October 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-52
Industry accounts for one-third of energy consumption in the US. Studies suggest that energy efficiency opportunities represent a potential energy resource for regulated utilities and have resulted in rate of return regulated demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency (EE) programs. However, many large customers are allowed to self-direct or opt-out. In the Carolinas (NC and SC), over half of industrial and large commercial customers have selected to opt out. Although these customers claim they invest in EE improvements when it is economic and cost-effective to do so, there is no mechanism to validate whether they actually achieved energy savings. This project examines the industrial energy efficiency between the program participants and non participants in the Carolinas by utilizing the non-public Census of Manufacturing data and the public list of firms that have chosen to opt out. We compare the relative energy efficiency between the stay-in and opt-out plants. The t-test results suggest opt-out plants are less efficient. However, the opt-out decisions are not random; large plants or plants belonging to large firms are more likely to opt out, possibly because they have more information and resources. We conduct a propensity score matching method to account for factors that could affect the opt-out decisions. We find that the opt-out plants perform at least as well or slightly better than the stay-in plants. The relative performance of the opt-out firms suggest that they may not need utility program resources to obtain similar levels of efficiency from the stay-in group.
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Environmental Regulation, Abatement, and Productivity: A Frontier Analysis
September 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-51
This research studies the link between environmental regulation and plant level productivity in two U.S. manufacturing industries: pulp and paper mills and oil refineries using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. Data on abatement spending, emissions and abated emissions are used in different DEA models to study plant productivity outcomes when accounting for abatement spending or emissions regulations. Results indicate that pulp and paper mills and oil refineries in the U.S. suffered decreases in productivity due to pollution abatement activities from 1974 to 2000. These losses in productivity are substantial but have been slowly trending downwards even when the regulations have tended to become more stringent and emission of pollutants has declined suggesting that the best practice has shifted over time. Results also show that the reported abatement expenditures are not able to explain all the losses arising out of regulation suggesting that these abatement expenditures are consistently under-reported.
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Cross Sectional Variation In Toxic Waste Releases From The U.S. Chemical Industry
August 1994
Working Paper Number:
CES-94-08
This paper measures and examines the 1987 cross sectional variation in toxic releases from the U.S. chemical industry. The analysis is based on a unique plant level data set of over 2,100 plants, combining EPA toxic release data with Census Bureau data on economic activity. The main results are that intra-industry variation in toxic releases are as great as, or greater, than inter-industry variation, and that plant, firm, and regulatory characteristics are important factors in explaining observed variation in toxic releases. Even after controlling for primary product and plant characteristics, there are some firms that generate significantly lower toxic waste due to managerial ability and/or technology differences.
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