Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Paycheck Protection Program'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 11
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Working PaperExpanding the Frontier of Economic Statistics Using Big Data: A Case Study of Regional Employment
July 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-37
Big data offers potentially enormous benefits for improving economic measurement, but it also presents challenges (e.g., lack of representativeness and instability), implying that their value is not always clear. We propose a framework for quantifying the usefulness of these data sources for specific applications, relative to existing official sources. We specifically weigh the potential benefits of additional granularity and timeliness, while examining the accuracy associated with any new or improved estimates, relative to comparable accuracy produced in existing official statistics. We apply the methodology to employment estimates using data from a payroll processor, considering both the improvement of existing state-level estimates, but also the production of new, more timely, county-level estimates. We find that incorporating payroll data can improve existing state-level estimates by 11% based on out-of-sample mean absolute error, although the improvement is considerably higher for smaller state-industry cells. We also produce new county-level estimates that could provide more timely granular estimates than previously available. We develop a novel test to determine if these new county-level estimates have errors consistent with official series. Given the level of granularity, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the new county estimates have an accuracy in line with official measures, implying an expansion of the existing frontier. We demonstrate the practical importance of these experimental estimates by investigating a hypothetical application during the COVID-19 pandemic, a period in which more timely and granular information could have assisted in implementing effective policies. Relative to existing estimates, we find that the alternative payroll data series could help identify areas of the country where employment was lagging. Moreover, we also demonstrate the value of a more timely series.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperAfter the Storm: How Emergency Liquidity Helps Small Businesses Following Natural Disasters
April 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-20
Does emergency credit prevent long-term financial distress? We study the causal effects of government-provided recovery loans to small businesses following natural disasters. The rapid financial injection might enable viable firms to survive and grow or might hobble precarious firms with more risk and interest obligations. We show that the loans reduce exit and bankruptcy, increase employment and revenue, unlock private credit, and reduce delinquency. These effects, especially the crowding-in of private credit, appear to reflect resolving uncertainty about repair. We do not find capital reallocation away from neighboring firms and see some evidence of positive spillovers on local entry.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperBusiness Dynamics Statistics for Single-Unit Firms
December 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-57
The Business Dynamics Statistics of Single Unit Firms (BDS-SU) is an experimental data product that provides information on employment and payroll dynamics for each quarter of the year at businesses that operate in one physical location. This paper describes the creation of the data tables and the value they add to the existing Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) product. We then present some analysis of the published statistics to provide context for the numbers and demonstrate how they can be used to understand both national and local business conditions, with a particular focus on 2020 and the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. We next examine how firms fared in this recession compared to the Great Recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2007. We also consider the heterogenous impact of the pandemic on various industries and areas of the country, showing which types of businesses in which locations were particularly hard hit. We examine business exit rates in some detail and consider why different metro areas experienced the pandemic in different ways. We also consider entry rates and look for evidence of a surge in new businesses as seen in other data sources. We finish by providing a preview of on-going research to match the BDS to worker demographics and show statistics on the relationship between the characteristics of the firm's workers and outcomes such as firm exit and net job creation.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperSmall Business Pulse Survey Estimates by Owner Characteristics and Rural/Urban Designation
September 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-24
In response to requests from policymakers for additional context for Small Business Pulse Survey (SBPS) measures of the impact of COVID-19 on small businesses, we researched developing estimates by owner characteristics and rural/urban locations. Leveraging geographic coding on the Business Register, we create estimates of the effect of the pandemic on small businesses by urban and rural designations. A more challenging exercise entails linking micro-level data from the SBPS with ownership data from the Annual Business Survey (ABS) to create estimates of the effect of the pandemic on small businesses by owner race, sex, ethnicity, and veteran status. Given important differences in survey design and concerns about nonresponse bias, we face significant challenges in producing estimates for owner demographics. We discuss our attempts to meet these challenges and provide discussion about caution that must be used in interpreting the results. The estimates produced for this paper are available for download. Reflecting the Census Bureau's commitment to scientific inquiry and transparency, the micro data from the SBPS will be available to qualified researchers on approved projects in the Federal Statistical Research Data Center network.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperHigh Frequency Business Dynamics in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic
March 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-06
Existing small businesses experienced very sharp declines in activity, business sentiment, and expectations early in the pandemic. While there has been some recovery since the early days of the pandemic, small businesses continued to exhibit indicators of negative growth, business sentiment, and expectations through the first week of January 2021. These findings are from a unique high frequency, real time survey of small employer businesses, the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey (SBPS). Findings from the SBPS show substantial variation across sectors in the outcomes for small businesses. Small businesses in Accommodation and Food Services have been hit especially hard relative to those Finance and Insurance. However, even in Finance and Insurance small businesses exhibit indicators of negative growth, business sentiment, and expectations for all weeks from late April 2020 through the first week of 2021. While existing small businesses have fared poorly, after an initial decline, there has been a surge in new business applications based on the high frequency, real time Business Formation Statistics (BFS). Most of these applications are for likely nonemployers that are out of scope for the SBPS. However, there has also been a surge in new applications for likely employers. The surge in applications has been especially apparent in Retail Trade (and especially Non-store Retailers). We compare and contrast the patterns from these two new high frequency data products that provide novel insights into the distinct patterns of dynamics for existing small businesses relative to new business formations.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperMeasuring the Effect of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: The Small Business Pulse Survey
May 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-16
In response to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the Census Bureau developed and fielded an entirely new survey intended to measure the effect on small businesses. The Small Business Pulse Survey (SBPS) will run weekly from April 26 to June 27, 2020. Results from the SBPS will be published weekly through a visualization tool with downloadable data. We describe the motivation for SBPS, summarize how the content for the survey was developed, and discuss some of the initial results from the survey. We also describe future plans for the SBPS collections and for our research using the SBPS data. Estimates from the first week of the SBPS indicate large to moderate negative effects of COVID-19 on small businesses, and yet the majority expect to return to usual level of operations within the next six months. Reflecting the Census Bureau's commitment to scientific inquiry and transparency, the micro data from the SBPS will be available to qualified researchers on approved projects in the Federal Statistical Research Data Center network.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Productivity Advantage and Global Scope of U.S. Multinational Firms
August 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-23
This paper examines whether the productivity of U.S. business establishments is related to the extent to which their parent firms are globally engaged--from being an exporter to being a fledgling multinational that has taken a few cautious forays into foreign markets to being a seasoned multinational with extensive foreign operations. Theory suggests that multinationals possess proprietary assets that confer a productivity advantage over their domestically-oriented rivals, and that this advantage is positively correlated with the global scope of a firm's operations. That is, those firms with the greatest productivity advantage are able to absorb the costs and overcome the risks of operating in a wide range of foreign countries, from those where it is relatively riskfree and economical to operate, to those where it is risky, difficult, and costly. This connection between the multinational's widening of its geographic scope of operations and its productivity can be self-reinforcing. Once a multinational has successfully operated in a risky environment, it may benefit from learning effects that can lower the cost and risk of further enlargement of geographic scope. The positive correlation between a firm's global engagement and its level of productivity has already been demonstrated. This paper extends that research by testing whether the correlation holds up when productivity is measured at the level of the individual establishment, rather than at the level of the consolidated business enterprise. It also examines whether the correlation between global engagement and productivity exists in non-manufacturing industries. Finally, it examines whether linkages between the multinational's domestic and foreign operations, in the form of imports of goods by the parent company from its foreign affiliates, enhance the productivity of the multinational's domestic business establishments. The findings confirm the positive correlation between global scope and productivity and demonstrate that it holds for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. The effect of imports of goods from foreign affiliates on the productivity of the establishments of their parent firm depend on the geographic location of the affiliates: Imports from affiliates in high-income countries tend to be associated with high productivity whereas those from affiliates in low-income countries tend to be associated with low productivity. The study was made possible by combining BEA enterprise-level data on the U.S. operations of U.S. multinational firms with data on all U.S. business establishments collected by the Census Bureau in the U.S. economic census covering 2002.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperSurvival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of U.S. Manufacturing Plants
October 2005
Working Paper Number:
CES-05-19
This paper examines the role of international trade in the reallocation of U.S. manufacturing within and across industries from 1977 to 1997. Motivated by the factor proportions framework, we introduce a new measure of industry exposure to international trade that focuses on where imports originate rather than on their overall level. We find that plant survival and growth are negatively associated with industry exposure to low-wage country imports. Within industries, we show that manufacturing activity is disproportionately reallocated towards capital-intensive plants. Finally, we provide the first evidence that firms adjust their product mix in response to trade pressures. Plants are more likely to switch industries when exposure to low-wage countries is high.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperProductivity, Investment in ICT and Market Experimentation: Micro Evidence from Germany and the U.S.
February 2003
Working Paper Number:
CES-03-06
In this paper, we examine the relationship between the use of advanced technologies, such as information and communications technologies (ICT), and related business practices and outcomes such as productivity, employment, the skill mix of the workforce and wages using micro data for the U.S. and Germany. . We find support to the idea that U.S. businesses engage in experimentation in a variety of ways not matched by their German counterparts. In particular, there is greater experimentation amongst young US businesses and there is greater experimentation among those actively changing their technology. This experimentation is evidenced in a greater dispersion in productivity and in related key business choices, like the skill mix and Internet access for workers. We also find that the mean impact of adopting new technology is greater in U.S. than in Germany. Putting the pieces together suggests that U.S. businesses choose a higher mean, higher variance strategy in adopting new technology.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Deaths of Manufacturing Plants
June 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-15
This paper examines the causes of manufacturing plant deaths within and across industries in the U.S. from 1977-1997. The effects of international competition from low wage countries, exporting, ownership structure, product diversity, productivity, geography, and plant characteristics are considered. The probability of shutdowns is higher in industries that face increased competition from lowincome countries, especially for low-wage, labor-intensive plants within those industries. Conditional on industry and plant characteristics, closures occur more often at plants that are part of a multi-plant firm and at plants that have recently experienced a change in ownership. Plants owned by U.S. multinationals are more likely to close than similar plants at non-multinational firms. Exits occur less frequently at multi-product plants, at exporters, at plants that pay above average wages, and at large, older, more productive and more capital-intensive plants.View Full Paper PDF
