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Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Harmonized System'

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Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database - 25

North American Industry Classification System - 24

Center for Economic Studies - 20

Ordinary Least Squares - 18

National Science Foundation - 17

Standard Industrial Classification - 15

Bureau of Economic Analysis - 15

Longitudinal Business Database - 15

National Bureau of Economic Research - 14

Bureau of Labor Statistics - 13

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - 12

Customs and Border Protection - 10

Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board - 9

International Trade Commission - 8

Internal Revenue Service - 7

Economic Census - 7

Business Register - 7

Total Factor Productivity - 7

Census of Manufacturing Firms - 6

Disclosure Review Board - 6

Michigan Institute for Data Science - 6

Heckscher-Ohlin - 6

Census of Manufactures - 6

International Standard Industrial Classification - 6

World Bank - 6

World Trade Organization - 5

Business Dynamics Statistics - 5

Federal Statistical Research Data Center - 5

Generalized Method of Moments - 5

Federal Reserve Bank - 5

Federal Reserve System - 5

North American Industry Classi - 5

Postal Service - 5

North American Free Trade Agreement - 5

Chicago Census Research Data Center - 5

United Nations - 5

Standard Statistical Establishment List - 4

County Business Patterns - 4

Census Bureau Business Register - 4

Annual Survey of Manufactures - 4

Federal Register - 4

Employer Identification Numbers - 4

Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database - 4

University of Chicago - 4

Special Sworn Status - 4

Office of Management and Budget - 3

Harvard University - 3

University of Michigan - 3

Herfindahl Hirschman Index - 3

UC Berkeley - 3

Board of Governors - 3

Public Administration - 3

American Economic Association - 3

Statistics Canada - 3

European Union - 3

TFPQ - 3

Cobb-Douglas - 3

Establishment Micro Properties - 3

State Energy Data System - 3

Patent and Trademark Office - 3

Department of Commerce - 3

Foreign Direct Investment - 3

Journal of Economic Literature - 3

Research Data Center - 3

Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 39


  • Working Paper

    The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in U.S. Labor Markets

    October 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-65

    Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions.
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  • Working Paper

    Multinational Production and Innovation in Tandem

    October 2024

    Authors: Jin Liu

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-64

    Multinational firms colocate production and innovation by offshoring them to the same host country or region. In this paper, I examine the determinants of multinational firms' production and innovation locations. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in tariffs, I find complementarities between production and innovation within host countries and regions. To evaluate manufacturing reshoring policies, I develop a quantitative multicountry offshoring location choice model. I allow for rich colocation benefits and cross-country interdependencies and prove supermodularity of the model to solve this otherwise NP-hard problem. I find the effects of manufacturing reshoring policies are nonlinear, contingent upon firm heterogeneity, and they accumulate dynamically.
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  • Working Paper

    Supply Chain Adjustments to Tariff Shocks: Evidence from Firm Trade Linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. Trade War

    August 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-43

    We use the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war to examine how supply chains adjustments to a tariff cost shock affect imports and exports. Using confidential firm-trade linked data, we show that the decline in imports of tariffed goods was driven by discontinuations of U.S. buyer'foreign supplier relationships, reduced formation of new relationships, and exits by U.S. firms from import markets altogether. However, tariffed products where imports were concentrated in fewer suppliers had a smaller decline in import growth. We then construct measures of export exposure to import tariffs by linking tariffs paid by importing firms to their exported products. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018-2019, with most of the impact occurring in 2019.
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  • Working Paper

    Accounting for Trade Patterns

    February 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-07

    We develop a quantitative framework for decomposing trade patterns. We derive price indexes that determine comparative advantage and the aggregate cost of living. If firms and products are imperfect substitutes, we show that these price indexes depend on variety, average appeal (including quality), and the dispersion of appeal-adjusted prices. We show that they are only weakly related to standard empirical measures of average prices. We find that 40 percent of the cross-section variation in comparative advantage, and 90 percent of the time-series variation, is accounted for by variety and average appeal, with less than 10 percent attributed to average prices.
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  • Working Paper

    Who's Most Exposed to International Shocks? Estimating Differences in Import Price Sensitivity across U.S. Demographic Groups

    March 2023

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-23-13R

    Differences in consumption patterns across demographic groups mean that international price shocks differentially affect such groups. We construct import price indexes for U.S. households that vary by age, race, marital status, education, and urban status. Black households and urban households experienced significantly higher import price inflation from 1996-2018 compared to other groups, such as white households and rural households. Sensitivity to international price shocks varies widely, implying movements in exchange rates and foreign prices, both during our sample and during the Covid-19 pandemic, drove sizable differences in import price inflation ' and total inflation ' across households.
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  • Working Paper

    U.S. Market Concentration and Import Competition

    August 2022

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-22-34

    Many studies have documented that market concentration has risen among U.S. firms in recent decades. In this paper, we show that this rise in concentration was accompanied by tougher product market competition due to the entry of foreign competitors. Using confidential census data covering the universe of all firm sales in the U.S. manufacturing sector, we find that rising import competition increased concentration among U.S. firms by reallocating sales from smaller to larger U.S. firms and by causing firm exit. However, this increase in concentration was counteracted by the expansion of foreign firms, which reduced domestic firms' share of the U.S. market inclusive of foreign firms' sales. We find that once the sales of foreign exporters are taken into account, U.S. marketconcentration in manufacturing was stable between 1992 and 2012.
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  • Working Paper

    Structural Change Within Versus Across Firms: Evidence from the United States

    June 2022

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-22-19

    We document the role of intangible capital in manufacturing firms' substantial contribution to non-manufacturing employment growth from 1977-2019. Exploiting data on firms' 'auxiliary' establishments, we develop a novel measure of proprietary in-house knowledge and show that it is associated with increased growth and industry switching. We rationalize this reallocation in a model where irms combine physical and knowledge inputs as complements, and where producing the latter in-house confers a sector-neutral productivity advantage facilitating within-firm structural transformation. Consistent with the model, manufacturing firms with auxiliary employment pivot towards services in response to a plausibly exogenous decline in their physical input prices.
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  • Working Paper

    Identifying U.S. Merchandise Traders: Integrating Customs Transactions with Business Administrative Data

    September 2020

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-20-28

    This paper describes the construction of the Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database (LFTTD) enabling the identification of merchandise traders - exporters and importers - in the U.S. Census Bureau's Business Register (BR). The LFTTD links merchandise export and import transactions from customs declaration forms to the BR beginning in 1992 through the present. We employ a combination of deterministic and probabilistic matching algorithms to assign a unique firm identifier in the BR to a merchandise export or import transaction record. On average, we match 89 percent of export and import values to a firm identifier. In 1992, we match 79 (88) percent of export (import) value; in 2017, we match 92 (96) percent of export (import) value. Trade transactions in year t are matched to years between 1976 and t+1 of the BR. On average, 94 percent of the trade value matches to a firm in year t of the BR. The LFTTD provides the most comprehensive identification of and the foundation for the analysis of goods trading firms in the U.S. economy.
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  • Working Paper

    Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

    January 2020

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-20-01

    We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we document the implied incidence and scope of new import tariffs. Firms that eventually faced tariff increases on their imports accounted for 84% of all exports and represented 65% of manufacturing employment. For all affected firms, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. To estimate the effect on U.S. export growth, we construct product-level measures of import tariff exposure of U.S. exports from the underlying firm micro data. More exposed products experienced 2 percentage point lower growth relative to products with no exposure. The decline in exports is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on U.S. exports of almost 2% for the typical product and almost 4% for products with higher than average exposure.
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  • Working Paper

    MANAGING TRADE: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA AND THE US

    May 2019

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-19-15

    We present a heterogeneous-firm model in which management ability increases both production efficiency and product quality. Combining six micro-datasets on management practices, production and trade in Chinese and American firms, we find broad support for the model's predictions. First, better managed firms are more likely to export, sell more products to more destination countries, and earn higher export revenues and profits. Second, better managed exporters have higher prices, higher quality, and lower quality-adjusted prices. Finally, they also use a wider range of inputs, higher quality and more expensive inputs, and imported inputs from more advanced countries. The structural estimates indicate that management is important for improving production efficiency and product quality in both countries, but it matters more in China than in the US, especially for product quality. Panel analysis for the US and a randomized control trial in India suggest that management exerts causal effects on product quality, production efficiency, and exports. Poor management practices may thus hinder trade and growth, especially in developing countries.
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