CREAT: Census Research Exploration and Analysis Tool

Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'employment growth'

The following papers contain search terms that you selected. From the papers listed below, you can navigate to the PDF, the profile page for that working paper, or see all the working papers written by an author. You can also explore tags, keywords, and authors that occur frequently within these papers.
Click here to search again

Frequently Occurring Concepts within this Search

Longitudinal Business Database - 34

Bureau of Labor Statistics - 30

North American Industry Classification System - 27

Center for Economic Studies - 26

Standard Industrial Classification - 21

Employer Identification Numbers - 18

National Science Foundation - 18

Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics - 17

Business Dynamics Statistics - 14

Annual Survey of Manufactures - 14

National Bureau of Economic Research - 14

Bureau of Economic Analysis - 14

Longitudinal Research Database - 13

Current Population Survey - 13

Federal Reserve Bank - 12

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - 12

Ordinary Least Squares - 12

Census Bureau Business Register - 12

Internal Revenue Service - 11

Census of Manufactures - 11

County Business Patterns - 11

Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board - 10

Department of Homeland Security - 10

Metropolitan Statistical Area - 10

Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database - 10

Quarterly Workforce Indicators - 10

Total Factor Productivity - 10

Business Employment Dynamics - 9

Alfred P Sloan Foundation - 9

Unemployment Insurance - 8

Federal Statistical Research Data Center - 8

University of Maryland - 8

International Trade Research Report - 8

Census of Manufacturing Firms - 7

Economic Census - 7

Kauffman Foundation - 7

Federal Reserve System - 6

Decennial Census - 6

Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics - 6

Local Employment Dynamics - 6

Small Business Administration - 5

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - 5

Generalized Method of Moments - 5

National Establishment Time Series - 5

Chicago Census Research Data Center - 5

VAR - 5

NBER Summer Institute - 5

Retail Trade - 5

Business Register - 5

Retirement History Survey - 5

Research Data Center - 5

Accommodation and Food Services - 4

AKM - 4

Social Security - 4

Disclosure Review Board - 4

Technical Services - 4

Employer Characteristics File - 4

Labor Productivity - 4

University of Chicago - 4

JOLTS - 4

Educational Services - 3

Arts, Entertainment - 3

Department of Economics - 3

Washington University - 3

American Community Survey - 3

Department of Commerce - 3

IQR - 3

Census of Retail Trade - 3

Current Employment Statistics - 3

Wholesale Trade - 3

Occupational Employment Statistics - 3

COMPUSTAT - 3

Core Based Statistical Area - 3

Cornell University - 3

Agriculture, Forestry - 3

Survey of Income and Program Participation - 3

Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Industries - 3

Labor Turnover Survey - 3

American Economic Review - 3

MIT Press - 3

National Longitudinal Survey of Youth - 3

Social Security Administration - 3

growth - 38

employ - 34

labor - 31

recession - 26

employed - 24

workforce - 23

quarterly - 22

employment dynamics - 20

macroeconomic - 18

manufacturing - 17

employee - 17

entrepreneurship - 16

hiring - 16

job - 16

sector - 16

economist - 16

earnings - 15

payroll - 14

entrepreneur - 13

industrial - 13

growth employment - 13

establishment - 13

trend - 13

enterprise - 12

production - 12

econometric - 12

turnover - 12

entrepreneurial - 11

firms grow - 11

estimating - 11

labor statistics - 11

proprietorship - 10

sale - 10

job growth - 10

longitudinal - 10

startup - 9

hire - 9

firms employment - 9

productivity growth - 9

wage growth - 8

gdp - 8

economically - 8

revenue - 8

worker - 8

trends employment - 8

estimates employment - 8

acquisition - 8

firm growth - 8

employment flows - 8

endogeneity - 7

employment statistics - 7

shift - 7

merger - 7

company - 6

younger firms - 6

firms young - 6

market - 6

innovation - 6

growth productivity - 6

employment estimates - 6

employment data - 6

regression - 6

demand - 5

autoregressive - 5

employment production - 5

endogenous - 5

expenditure - 5

employing - 5

employment wages - 5

increase employment - 5

unemployment rates - 5

rent - 5

firms productivity - 5

industry employment - 5

firm dynamics - 5

decade - 5

regional - 5

employment changes - 5

tenure - 5

decline - 5

growth firms - 5

occupation - 5

employment count - 5

census employment - 5

proprietor - 4

layoff - 4

labor productivity - 4

exogenous - 4

impact employment - 4

metropolitan - 4

city - 4

economic growth - 4

produce - 4

industry growth - 4

employment trends - 4

econometrician - 4

geographically - 4

declining - 4

producing - 4

startup firms - 4

recessionary - 4

aggregate - 4

estimation - 4

corporation - 3

venture - 3

wholesale - 3

firms age - 3

prospect - 3

employment unemployment - 3

exogeneity - 3

productivity shocks - 3

shock - 3

gain - 3

spillover - 3

employment effects - 3

incentive - 3

larger firms - 3

capital productivity - 3

industry wages - 3

relocation - 3

productivity dynamics - 3

regress - 3

accounting - 3

forecast - 3

longitudinal employer - 3

earn - 3

earner - 3

wages productivity - 3

aging - 3

industry output - 3

downturn - 3

unemployed - 3

employment distribution - 3

externality - 3

aggregation - 3

regional economic - 3

poverty - 3

local economic - 3

workplace - 3

firms size - 3

measures employment - 3

workforce indicators - 3

survey - 3

wage industries - 3

Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 63


  • Working Paper

    Startup Dynamics: Transitioning from Nonemployer Firms to Employer Firms, Survival, and Job Creation

    April 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-26

    Understanding the dynamics of startup businesses' growth, exit, and survival is crucial for fostering entrepreneurship. Among the nearly 30 million registered businesses in the United States, fewer than six million have employees beyond the business owners. This research addresses the gap in understanding which companies transition to employer businesses and the mechanisms behind this process. Job creation remains a critical concern for policymakers, researchers, and advocacy groups. This study aims to illuminate the transition from non-employer businesses to employer businesses and explore job creation by new startups. Leveraging newly available microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau, we seek to gain deeper insights into firm survival, job creation by startups, and the transition from non-employer to employer status.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Workers' Job Prospects and Young Firm Dynamics

    January 2025

    Authors: Seula Kim

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-09

    This paper investigates how worker beliefs and job prospects impact the wages and growth of young firms, as well as the aggregate economy. Building a heterogeneous-firm directed search model where workers gradually learn about firm types, I find that learning generates endogenous wage differentials for young firms. High-performing young firms must pay higher wages than equally high-performing old firms, while low-performing young firms offer lower wages than equally low-performing old firms. Reduced uncertainty or labor market frictions lower the wage differentials, thereby enhancing young firm dynamics and aggregate productivity. The results are consistent with U.S. administrative employee-employer matched data.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    The Effect of Oil News Shocks on Job Creation and Destruction

    January 2025

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-25-06

    Using data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) and the Census of Manufacturing (CMF), we construct quarterly measures of job creation and destruction by 3-digit NAICS industries spanning from 1980Q3-2016Q4. These long series allow us to address three questions regarding the effect of oil news shocks. What is the average effect of oil news shocks on sectoral labor reallocation? What characteristics explain the observed heterogeneity in the average responses across industries? Has the response of US manufacturing changed over time? We find evidence that oil news shocks exert only a moderate effect on total manufacturing net employment growth but lead to a significant increase in job reallocation. However, we find a high degree of heterogeneity in responses across industries. We then show that the cross-industry variation in the sensitivity of net employment growth and excess job reallocation to oil news shocks is related to differences in energy costs, the rate of energy to capital expenditures, and the share of mature firms in the industry. Finally, we illustrate how the dynamic response of sectoral job creation and destruction to oil news shocks has declined since the mid-2000s.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Entry Costs Rise with Growth

    October 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-63

    Over time and across states in the U.S., the number of firms is more closely tied to overall employment than to output per worker. In many models of firm dynamics, trade, and growth with a free entry condition, these facts imply that the costs of creating a new firm increase sharply with productivity growth. This increase in entry costs can stem from the rising cost of labor used in entry and weak or negative knowledge spillovers from prior entry. Our findings suggest that productivity-enhancing policies will not induce firm entry, thereby limiting the total impact of such policies on welfare.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Payroll Tax Incidence: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance

    June 2024

    Authors: Audrey Guo

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-35

    Economic models assume that payroll tax burdens fall fully on workers, but where does tax incidence fall when taxes are firm-specific and time-varying? Unemployment insurance in the United States has the key feature of varying both across employers and over time, creating the potential for labor demand responses if tax costs cannot be fully passed through to worker wages. Using state policy changes and administrative data of matched employer-employee job spells, I study how employment and earnings respond to unexpected payroll tax increases for highly exposed employers. I find significant drops in employment growth driven by lower hiring, and minimal evidence of passthrough to earnings. The negative employment effects are strongest for young workers and single-establishment firms.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Urban-Biased Growth: A Macroeconomic Analysis

    June 2024

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-24-33

    After 1980, larger US cities experienced substantially faster wage growth than smaller ones. We show that this urban bias mainly reflected wage growth at large Business Services firms. These firms stand out through their high per-worker expenditure on information technology and disproportionate presence in big cities. We introduce a spatial model of investment-specific technical change that can rationalize these patterns. Using the model as an accounting framework, we find that the observed decline in the investment price of information technology capital explains most urban-biased growth by raising the profits of large Business Services firms in big cities.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Productivity Dispersion and Structural Change in Retail Trade

    December 2023

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-23-60R

    The retail sector has changed from a sector full of small firms to one dominated by large, national firms. We study how this transformation has impacted productivity levels, growth, and dispersion between 1987 and 2017. We describe this transformation using three overlapping phases: expansion (1980s and 1990s), consolidation (2000s), and stagnation (2010s). We document five findings that help us understand these phases. First, productivity growth was high during the consolidation phase but has fallen more recently. Second, entering establishments drove productivity growth during the expansion phase, but continuing establishments have increased in importance more recently. Third, national chains have more productive establishments than single-unit firms on average, but some single-unit establishments are highly productive. Fourth, productivity dispersion is significant and increasing over time. Finally, more productive firms pay higher wages and grow more quickly. Together, these results suggest that the increasing importance of large national retail firms has been an important driver of productivity and wage growth in the retail sector.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Eclipse of Rent-Sharing: The Effects of Managers' Business Education on Wages and the Labor Share in the US and Denmark

    December 2022

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-22-58

    This paper provides evidence from the US and Denmark that managers with a business degree ('business managers") reduce their employees' wages. Within five years of the appointment of a business manager, wages decline by 6% and the labor share by 5 percentage points in the US, and by 3% and 3 percentage points in Denmark. Firms appointing business managers are not on differential trends and do not enjoy higher output, investment, or employment growth thereafter. Using manager retirements and deaths and an IV strategy based on the diffusion of the practice of appointing business managers within industry, region and size quartile cells, we provide additional evidence that these are causal effects. We establish that the proximate cause of these (relative) wage effects are changes in rent-sharing practices following the appointment of business managers. Exploiting exogenous export demand shocks, we show that non-business managers share profits with their workers, whereas business managers do not. But consistent with our first set of results, these business managers show no greater ability to increase sales or profits in response to exporting opportunities. Finally, we use the influence of role models on college major choice to instrument for the decision to enroll in a business degree in Denmark and show that our estimates correspond to causal effects of practices and values acquired in business education--rather than the differential selection into business education of individuals unlikely to share rents with workers.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    Structural Change Within Versus Across Firms: Evidence from the United States

    June 2022

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-22-19

    We document the role of intangible capital in manufacturing firms' substantial contribution to non-manufacturing employment growth from 1977-2019. Exploiting data on firms' 'auxiliary' establishments, we develop a novel measure of proprietary in-house knowledge and show that it is associated with increased growth and industry switching. We rationalize this reallocation in a model where irms combine physical and knowledge inputs as complements, and where producing the latter in-house confers a sector-neutral productivity advantage facilitating within-firm structural transformation. Consistent with the model, manufacturing firms with auxiliary employment pivot towards services in response to a plausibly exogenous decline in their physical input prices.
    View Full Paper PDF
  • Working Paper

    The Business Dynamics Statistics: Describing the Evolution of the U.S. Economy from 1978-2019

    October 2021

    Working Paper Number:

    CES-21-33

    The U.S. Census Bureau's Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) provide annual measures of how many businesses begin, end, or continue their operations and the associated job creation and destruction. The BDS is a valuable resource for information on the U.S. economy because of its long time series (1978-2019), its complete coverage (all private sector, non-farm U.S. businesses), and its tabulations for both individual establishments and the firms that own and control them. In this paper, we use the publicly available BDS data to describe the dynamics of the economy over the past 40 years. We highlight the increasing concentration of employment at old and large firms and describe net job creation trends in the manufacturing, retail, information, food/accommodations, and healthcare industry sectors. We show how the spatial distribution of employment has changed, first moving away from the largest cities and then back again. Finally, we show long-run trends for a group of industries we classify as high-tech and explore how the share of employment at small and young firms has changed for this part of the economy.
    View Full Paper PDF