Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'socioeconomic'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 63
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Working PaperFrom Marcy to Madison Square? The Effects of Growing Up in Public Housing on Early Adulthood Outcomes
November 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-67
This paper studies the effects of growing up in public housing in New York City on children's long-run outcomes. Using linked administrative data, we exploit variation in the age children move into public housing to estimate the effects of spending an additional year of childhood in public housing on a range of economic and social outcomes in early adulthood. We find that childhood exposure to public housing improves labor market outcomes and reduces participation in federal safety net programs, particularly for children from the most disadvantaged families. Additionally, we find there is some heterogeneity in impacts across public housing developments. Developments located in neighborhoods with relatively fewer renters and higher household incomes are better for children overall. Our estimate of the marginal value of public funds suggests that for every $1 the government spends per child on public housing, children receive $1.40 in benefits, including $2.30 for children from the most disadvantaged families.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperIncorporating Administrative Data in Survey Weights for the 2018-2022 Survey of Income and Program Participation
October 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-58
Response rates to the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) have declined over time, raising the potential for nonresponse bias in survey estimates. A potential solution is to leverage administrative data from government agencies and third-party data providers when constructing survey weights. In this paper, we modify various parts of the SIPP weighting algorithm to incorporate such data. We create these new weights for the 2018 through 2022 SIPP panels and examine how the new weights affect survey estimates. Our results show that before weighting adjustments, SIPP respondents in these panels have higher socioeconomic status than the general population. Existing weighting procedures reduce many of these differences. Comparing SIPP estimates between the production weights and the administrative data-based weights yields changes that are not uniform across the joint income and program participation distribution. Unlike other Census Bureau household surveys, there is no large increase in nonresponse bias in SIPP due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. In summary, the magnitude and sign of nonresponse bias in SIPP is complicated, and the existing weighting procedures may change the sign of nonresponse bias for households with certain incomes and program benefit statuses.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperHousehold Wealth and Entrepreneurial Career Choices: Evidence from Climate Disasters
July 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-39
This study investigates how household wealth affects the human capital of startups, based on U.S. Census individual-level employment data, deed records, and geographic information system (GIS) data. Using floods as a wealth shock, a regression discontinuity analysis shows inundated residents are 7% less likely to work in startups relative to their neighbors outside the flood boundary, within a 0.1-mile-wide band. The effect is more pronounced for homeowners, consistent with the wealth effect. The career distortion leads to a significant long-run income loss, highlighting the importance of self-insurance for human capital allocation.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperChanging Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility
July 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-38
We show that intergenerational mobility changed rapidly by race and class in recent decades and use these trends to study the causal mechanisms underlying changes in economic mobility. For white children in the U.S. born between 1978 and 1992, earnings increased for children from high-income families but decreased for children from low-income families, increasing earnings gaps by parental income ('class') by 30%. Earnings increased for Black children at all parental income levels, reducing white- Black earnings gaps for children from low-income families by 30%. Class gaps grew and race gaps shrank similarly for non-monetary outcomes such as educational attainment, standardized test scores, and mortality rates. Using a quasi-experimental design, we show that the divergent trends in economic mobility were caused by differential changes in childhood environments, as proxied by parental employment rates, within local communities defined by race, class, and childhood county. Outcomes improve across birth cohorts for children who grow up in communities with increasing parental employment rates, with larger effects for children who move to such communities at younger ages. Children's outcomes are most strongly related to the parental employment rates of peers they are more likely to interact with, such as those in their own birth cohort, suggesting that the relationship between children's outcomes and parental employment rates is mediated by social interaction. Our findings imply that community-level changes in one generation can propagate to the next generation and thereby generate rapid changes in economic mobility.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Impact of Parental Resources on Human Capital Investment and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Great Recession
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-34
I study the impact of parents' financial resources during adolescence on postsecondary human capital investment and labor market outcomes, using house value changes during the Great Recession of 2007-2009 as a natural experiment. I use several restricted-access datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau to create a novel dataset that includes intergenerational linkages between children and their parents. This data allows me to exploit house value variation within labor markets, addressing the identification concern that local house values are related to local economic conditions. I find that the average decrease to parents' home values lead to persistent decreases in bachelor's degree attainment of 1.26%, earnings of 1.96%, and full-time employment of 1.32%. Children of parents suffering larger house value shocks are more likely to substitute into two-year degree programs, drop out of college, or be enrolled in a college program in their late 20s.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperWho Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-30
Americans rarely marry outside of their race or class group. We distinguish between two possible explanations: a lack of exposure to other groups versus a preference to marry within group. We develop an instrument for neighborhood exposure to opposite-sex members of other race and class groups using variation in sex ratios among nearby birth cohorts in childhood neighborhoods. We then test whether increased exposure results in more interracial (white-Black) and interclass (top-to-bottom parent income quartile) marriages. Increased exposure to opposite-sex members of other class groups generates a substantial increase in interclass marriage, but increased exposure to other race groups has no detectable effect on interracial marriage. We use these results to estimate a spatial model of the marriage market and quantify the impact of reducing residential segregation in general equilibrium. For small changes in exposure, the model implies effects in line with recent estimates from policy experiments. We then use the model to assess the overall contribution of segregation and find that residential segregation has large effects on interclass, but not interracial, marriage.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperFamily Resources and Human Capital in Economic Downturns
March 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-15
I study how recessions impact the human capital of young adults and how these effects vary over the parent income gradient. Using a novel confidential linked survey dataset from U.S. Census, I document that the negative effects of worse local unemployment shocks on educational attainment are strongly concentrated among middle-class children, with losses in parental home equity being potentially important mechanisms. To probe the aggregate implications of these findings and assess policy implications, I develop a model of selection into college and life-cycle earnings that comprises endogenous parental transfers for education, multiple schooling options, and uncertainty in post-graduation employment outcomes. Simulating a recession in the model produces a 'hollowing out the middle' in lifecycle earnings in the aggregate, and educational borrowing constraints play a key role in this result. Counterfactual policies to expand college access in response to the recession can mitigate these effects but struggle to be cost effective.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperIncorporating Administrative Data in Survey Weights for the Basic Monthly Current Population Survey
January 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-02
Response rates to the Current Population Survey (CPS) have declined over time, raising the potential for nonresponse bias in key population statistics. A potential solution is to leverage administrative data from government agencies and third-party data providers when constructing survey weights. In this paper, we take two approaches. First, we use administrative data to build a non-parametric nonresponse adjustment step while leaving the calibration to population estimates unchanged. Second, we use administratively linked data in the calibration process, matching income data from the Internal Return Service and state agencies, demographic data from the Social Security Administration and the decennial census, and industry data from the Census Bureau's Business Register to both responding and nonresponding households. We use the matched data in the household nonresponse adjustment of the CPS weighting algorithm, which changes the weights of respondents to account for differential nonresponse rates among subpopulations. After running the experimental weighting algorithm, we compare estimates of the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate between the experimental weights and the production weights. Before March 2020, estimates of the labor force participation rates using the experimental weights are 0.2 percentage points higher than the original estimates, with minimal effect on unemployment rate. After March 2020, the new labor force participation rates are similar, but the unemployment rate is about 0.2 percentage points higher in some months during the height of COVID-related interviewing restrictions. These results are suggestive that if there is any nonresponse bias present in the CPS, the magnitude is comparable to the typical margin of error of the unemployment rate estimate. Additionally, the results are overall similar across demographic groups and states, as well as using alternative weighting methodology. Finally, we discuss how our estimates compare to those from earlier papers that calculate estimates of bias in key CPS labor force statistics. This paper is for research purposes only. No changes to production are being implemented at this time.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Local Origins of Business Formation
July 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-34
What locations generate more business ideas, and where are ideas more likely to turn into businesses? Using comprehensive administrative data on business applications, we analyze the spatial disparity in the creation of business ideas and the formation of new employer startups from these ideas. Startups per capita exhibit enormous variation across granular units of geography. We decompose this variation into variation in ideas per capita and in their rate of transition to startups, and find that both components matter. Observable local demographic, economic, financial, and business conditions accounts for a significant fraction of the variation in startups per capita, and more so for the variation in ideas per capita than in transition rate. Income, education, age, and foreign-born share are generally strong positive correlates of both idea generation and transition. Overall, the relationship of local conditions with ideas differs from that with transition rate in magnitude, and sometimes, in sign: certain conditions (notably, the African-American share of the population) are positively associated with ideas, but negatively with transition rates. We also find a close correspondence between the actual rank of locations in terms of startups per capita and the predicted rank based only on observable local conditions ' a result useful for characterizing locations with high startup activity.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Gender Pay Gap and Its Determinants Across the Human Capital Distribution
June 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-31R
This paper links American Community Survey data and postsecondary transcript records to examine how the gender pay gap varies across the distribution of education credentials for a sample of 2003-2013 graduates. Although recent literature emphasizes gender inequality among the most-educated, we find a smaller gender pay gap at higher education levels. Field-of-degree and occupation effects explain most of the gap among top bachelor's graduates, while work hours and unobserved channels matter more for less-competitive bachelor's, associate, and certificate graduates. We develop a novel decomposition of the child penalty to examine the role of children in explaining these results.View Full Paper PDF
