Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'demography'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 13
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Working PaperMeasuring Race in US Economic Statistics: What Do We Know?
August 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-30
This article is an edited transcript of the session of the same name at the 38th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference: Policy Options for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. The panelists are experts from government and private research organizations.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperWho Files for Personal Bankruptcy in the United States?
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-54
Who files for bankruptcy in the United States is not well understood. Previous research relied on small samples from national surveys or a small number of states from administrative records. I use over 10 million administrative bankruptcy records linked to the 2000 Decennial Census and the 2001-2009 American Community Surveys to understand who files for personal bankruptcy. Bankruptcy filers are middle income, more likely to be divorced, more likely to be black, more likely to have terminal high school degree or some college, and more likely to be middle-aged. Bankruptcy filers are more likely to be employed than the U.S. as a whole, and they are more likely to be employed 50-52 weeks. The bankruptcy population is aging faster than the U.S. population as a whole. Lastly, using the pseudo-panels I study what happens in the years around bankruptcy. Individuals are likely to get divorced in the years before bankruptcy and then remarry. Income falls before bankruptcy and then rises after bankruptcy.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperPlaying with Matches: An Assessment of Accuracy in Linked Historical Data
June 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-05
This paper evaluates linkage quality achieved by various record linkage techniques used in historical demography. I create benchmark, or truth, data by linking the 2005 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Social Security Administration's Numeric Identification System by Social Security Number. By comparing simulated linkages to the benchmark data, I examine the value added (in terms of number and quality of links) from incorporating text-string comparators, adjusting age, and using a probabilistic matching algorithm. I find that text-string comparators and probabilistic approaches are useful for increasing the linkage rate, but use of text-string comparators may decrease accuracy in some cases. Overall, probabilistic matching offers the best balance between linkage rates and accuracy.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Timing of Teenage Births: Estimating the Effect on High School Graduation and Later Life Outcomes
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-39R
We examine the long-term outcomes for a population of teenage mothers who give birth to their children around the end of their high school year. We compare the mothers whose high school education was interrupted by childbirth, because the child was born before her expected graduation date to mothers who did not experience the same disruption to their education. We find that mothers who give birth during the school year are seven percent less likely to graduate from high school, are less likely to be married, and have more children than their counterparts who gave birth just a few months later. The labor market outcomes for these two sets of teenage mothers are not statistically different, but with a lower likelihood of marriage and more children, the households of the treated mothers are more likely to fall below the poverty threshold. While differences in educational attainment have narrowed over time, the differences in labor market outcomes and family structure have remained stable.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperIs there an Advantage to Working? The Relationship between Maternal Employment and Intergenerational Mobility
September 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-27
We investigate the question of whether investing in a child's development by having a parent stay at home when the child is young is correlated with the child's adult outcomes. Specifically, do children with stay-at-home mothers have higher adult earnings than children raised in households with a working mother? The major contribution of our study is that, unlike previous studies, we have access to rich longitudinal data that allows us to measure both the parental earnings when the child is very young and the adult earnings of the child. Our findings are consistent with previous studies that show insignificant differences between children raised by stay-at-home mothers during their early years and children with mothers working in the market. We find no impact of maternal employment during the first 5 years of a child's life on earnings, employment, or mobility measures of either sons or daughters. We do find, however, that maternal employment during children's high school years is correlated with a higher probability of employment as adults for daughters and a higher correlation between parent and daughter earnings ranks.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperCreating Linked Historical Data: An Assessment of the Census Bureau's Ability to Assign Protected Identification Keys to the 1960 Census
September 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-12
In order to study social phenomena over the course of the 20th century, the Census Bureau is investigating the feasibility of digitizing historical census records and linking them to contemporary data. However, historical censuses have limited personally identifiable information available to match on. In this paper, I discuss the problems associated with matching older censuses to contemporary data files, and I describe the matching process used to match a small sample of the 1960 census to the Social Security Administration Numeric Identification System.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperMore than a Million New American Indians in 2000: Who are They?
March 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-02
Over a million people reported their race as American Indian in the 2000 U.S. Census but did not report that race in the 1990 Census. We investigate three questions related to this extraordinary population change: (1) Which subgroups of American Indians had the greatest numerical growth? (2) Which subgroups had the greatest proportional increase? And (3) is it plausible that all 'new' American Indians reported multiple races in 2000? We use full-count and high-density decennial U.S. census data; adjust for birth, death, and immigration; decompose on age, gender, Latino origin, education, and birth state; and compare the observed American Indian subgroup sizes in 2000 to the sizes expected based on 1990 counts. The largest numerical increases were among non-Latino youth (ages 10-19), non-Latino adult women, and adults with no college degree. Latinos, highly-educated adults, and women have the largest proportionate gains, perhaps indicating that 'American Indian' has special appeal in these groups. We also find evidence that a substantial number of new American Indians reported only American Indian race in 2000, rather than a multiple-race response. This research is relevant to social theorists, race scholars, community members, program evaluators, and the Census Bureau.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperNature Versus Nurture in the Origins of Highly Productive Businesses: An Exploratory Analysis of U.S. Manufacturing Establishments
September 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-26
This paper investigates the origins of productivity leaders, those that operate close to and help push out the production frontier. Do such businesses emerge as top performers from the very beginning of their lives, for example as the consequence of an outstanding founding idea, technology, or location? Or, at the other extreme, do they appear initially as completely average (or even underperformers) that exhibit gradual improvement as they learn and develop with age? To answer this question we draw upon five decades of U.S. Census of Manufacturing (CM) establishment-level data, tracing the productivity leaders of the most recent CM (2007) back over their observed life spans. We also examine possible industry-level correlates of variation in the extent of nature versus nurture that are suggested by theories of industry dynamics and economic growth.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperPast Experience and Future Success: New Evidence on Owner Characteristics and Firm Performance
September 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-24
Because the ability of entrepreneurs to start their own businesses is key to the success of the U.S. economy and to the economic mobility of many disadvantaged demographic groups, understanding why entrepreneurship activity varies across groups and geography is an increasingly important issue. As a step in this direction we employ a novel set of metrics of business success to the growing literature and find great variation across groups and metrics. For example, we find that black-owned firms grow slower than white or Asian-owned firms. However, once we condition on firm survival, the differences disappear. Interestingly, we also find differences across groups in their start-up histories. For example, Asian-owned firms are less likely than white-owned firms to have started-out as nonemployers but firms owned by all other minority groups, as well as women-owned firms, are more likely to start-out without employees.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Impact of Local Labor Market Conditions on the Demand for Education: Evidence from Indian Casinos
June 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-14
Using restricted-use data from the 1990 and 2000 Census long-form, we analyze the impact of local labor market conditions on the demand for education using the economic shock produced by the opening of a new casino on an Indian reservation as the identifying event. Federal legislation in 1988 allowed Indian tribes to open casinos in many states and since then, over 400 casinos have opened, 240 of which have Las Vegas-style games. We demonstrate that the opening of a casino increased the employment and wages of low-skilled workers. Young adults responded by dropping out of high school and reducing college enrollment rates, even though many tribes have generous college tuition subsidy programs.View Full Paper PDF
