This study analyzes urban and rural values of value added per worker and production worker wages tabulated from unpublished 1992 Census of Manufactures data. A decomposition of regional averages separates out effects of regional industry mix from within-industry differentials over a rural-urban continuum and for metro and nonmetro portions of census regions. Comparison of actual 1991-1993 employment growth with regional wage and productivity differentials shows that low wages are strongly associated with job growth.
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International Trade, Employment, and Earnings: Evidence from U.S. Rural Counties
May 2003
Working Paper Number:
CES-03-12
Rural manufacturers in the United States are considered highly vulnerable to competition from international imports. Yet only limited empirical attention has been paid to the effects of trade on U.S. rural economies. This paper investigates the effects of international trade on U.S. rural manufacturing economies and compares the effects of trade pressures in rural versus urban areas. Our results indicate that lower export prices are associated with increased manufacturing employment and earnings in both rural and urban counties, while lower import prices are associated with reduced rural employment but increased urban employment. Greater export orientation is associated with lower employment and earnings in both rural and urban counties, while import orientation has mixed effects.
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The Influence Of Location On Productivity: Manufacturing Technology In Rural And Urban Areas
December 1991
Working Paper Number:
CES-91-10
Policies to counter the growing discrepancy between economic opportunities in rural and urban areas have focused predominantly on expanding manufacturing in rural areas. Fundamental to the design of these strategies are the relative costs of production and productivity of manufacturing in rural and urban areas. This study aims to develop information that can be used to assess the productivity of manufacturing in rural and urban areas. Production functions are estimated in the meat products and household furniture industries to investigate selected aspects of the effect of rural, small urban, and metropolitan location on productivity. The results show that the effect of location on productivity varies with industry, size, and the timing of the entry of the establishment into the industry. While the analysis is specific to two industries, it suggests that development policies targeting manufacturing can be made more effective by focusing on industries and plants with characteristics that predispose them to the locations being supported.
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Regional Income Inequality and International Trade
July 2003
Working Paper Number:
CES-03-15
International trade is frequently cited as a cause of rising income inequality between individuals and across countries. Less attention has been paid to the effects of trade on inequality across regions within countries. Trade may enhance regional inequalities due to differences in regional trade involvement and in the prices of export and import-competing goods produced in different regions. This study investigates the effects of trade on income inequality across regions in the United States. Using both structural and price-based measures of regional trade involvement, we evaluate the effects of trade on inequality within and across states, the metro and nonmetro portions of the states, and the major Census regions. Across all states and across metro and nonmetro areas, we find that trade affects inequality primarily via import and export prices. In contrast to our expectations, however, a weaker dollar '''more expensive imports and cheaper exports ''' is associated with a worsening of a state'''s position relative to other states, and greater inequality within a state. Across the Census regions, both our price and measures had significant effects, but the direction of these effects varied by region. Whereas most regions benefited from cheaper imports, states located in regions that are traditionally home to low-wage sectors, including the Southeast and South Central regions, were made relatively worse off by lower import prices and by greater orientation toward import-competing goods. Our findings reinforce notions about the uneven impacts of globalization and suggest that policy measures are needed to ensure that both the benefits and costs of international trade involvement are shared across regions.
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Establishment and Employment Dynamics in Appalachia: Evidence from the Longitudinal Business Database
December 2003
Working Paper Number:
CES-03-19
One indicator of the general economic health of a region is the rate at which new jobs are created. The newly developed Longitudinal Business Database has been used in this paper to develop a detailed portrait of establishment formation and attrition and job creation and destruction in the Appalachian Region. The foremost finding is that the pace of reallocation in Appalachia is lower than it is for the U.S.. This is evident in Appalachia's relatively lower establishment birth and death rates and job creation and destruction rates. For example, on average over the study time period, the U.S. job creation rate exceeds 45 percent, while the Appalachian job creation rate is 43 percent. Similarly, the U.S. job destruction rate is about 35 percent, while the Appalachian job destruction rate is about 33 percent. Even when controlling for other differences, job creation rates are 1.2 percentage points lower and job destruction rates are 3.4 percentage points lower in Appalachia relative to the rest of the U.S. Another indicator of the general economic health of a region is the quality of its jobs. The quality of jobs is measured in this paper by the average wage paid at the establishment. Here too there is cause for concern about the economic health of Appalachia. The analysis shows that wages are about 10 percent lower in Appalachia than in the U.S. even when controlling for differences in other characteristics across the two areas. This wage discrepancy has not narrowed over the time of the study. Moreover, new establishments have a similar wage gap. Employees at new establishments earn wages 10 percent less than at new establishments in the rest of the U.S.
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Reallocation and Productivity Dynamics in the Appalachian Region
January 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-03
The Appalachian Region has long suffered from poor economic performance as measured over a variety of dimensions. Even as the region has improved over the last few decades, Appalachia still lags behind the nation. A growing body of empirical work has found that reallocation is pervasive in the U.S. economy and is an integral component of economic growth. Productivity growth is improved when resources are shifted from less productive establishments towards more productive establishments either through changes in existing establishments or through the births and deaths of establishments. Establishments that use new products, technologies, and production processes replace establishments that do not in a continual process of creative destruction. Using establishment-level data, this paper examines the reallocation and productivity dynamics of the Appalachian Region. The first part of the paper compares the reallocation dynamics of Appalachia to the rest of the U.S. using a newly developed establishment-level database that covers virtually the entire U.S. economy. From this analysis, it is apparent that establishment birth and death rates and job creation and destruction rates for Appalachia are consistently below those for the rest of the U.S.. The second part of the paper uses data from the Economic Censuses to determine whether the establishment and employment dynamics of the Appalachian Region are also qualitatively different (in terms of their productivity rankings) from their U.S. counterparts. It appears that the North subregion of Appalachia has reallocation and productivity dynamics that are consistent with an impeded creative destruction story.
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A Flexible Test for Agglomeration Economies in Two U.S. Manufacturing Industries
August 2004
Working Paper Number:
CES-04-14
This paper uses the inverse input demand function framework of Kim (1992) to test for economies of industry and urban size in two U.S. manufacturing sectors of differing technology intensity: farm and garden machinery (SIC 352) and measuring and controlling devices (SIC 382). The inverse input demand framework permits the estimation of the production function jointly with a set of cost shares without the imposition of prior economic restrictions. Tests using plant-level data suggest the presence of population scale (urbanization) economies in the moderate- to low-technology farm and garden machinery sector and industry scale (localization) economies in the higher technology measuring and controlling devices sector. The efficiency and generality of the inverse input demand approach are particularly appropriate for micro-level studies of agglomeration economies where prior assumptions regarding homogeneity and homotheticity are less appropriate.
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Task Trade and the Wage Effects of Import Competition
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-03
Do job characteristics modulate the relationship between import competition and the wages of workers who perform those jobs? This paper tests the claim that workers in occupations featuring highly routine tasks will be more vulnerable to low-wage country import competition. Using data from the US Census Bureau, we construct a pooled cross-section (1990, 2000, and 2007) of more than 1.6 million individuals linked to the establishment in which they work. Occupational measures of vulnerability to trade competition ' routineness, analytic complexity, and interpersonal interaction on the job ' are constructed using O*NET data. The linked employer-employee data allow us to model the effect of low-wage import competition on the wages of workers with different occupational characteristics. Our results show that low-wage country import competition is associated with lower wages for US workers holding jobs that are highly routine and less complex. For workers holding nonroutine and highly complex jobs, increased import competition is associated with higher wages. Finally, workers in occupations with the highest and lowest levels of interpersonal interaction see higher wages, while workers with medium-low levels of interpersonal interaction suffer lower wages with increased low-wage import competition. These findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for occupational characteristics to more fully understand the relationship between trade and wages, and suggest ways in which task trade vulnerable occupations can disadvantage workers even when their jobs remain onshore.
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Impacts of Trade on Wage Inequality in Los Angeles: Analysis Using Matched Employer-Employee Data
April 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-12
Over the past twenty-five years, earnings inequality has risen dramatically in the US, reversing trends of the preceding half-century. Growing inequality is closely tied to globalization and trade through the arguments of Heckscher-Ohlin. However, with only few exceptions, empirical studies fail to show that trade is the primary determinant of shifts in relative wages. We argue that lack of empirical support for the trade-inequality connection results from the use of poor proxies for worker skill and the failure to control for other worker characteristics and plant characteristics that impact wages. We remedy these problems by developing a matched employer-employee database linking the Decennial Household Census (individual worker records) and the Longitudinal Research Database (individual manufacturing establishment records) for the Los Angeles CMSA in 1990 and 2000. Our results show that trade has a significant impact on wage inequality, pushing down the wages of the less-skilled while allowing more highly skilled workers to benefit from exports. That impact has increased through the 1990s, swamping the influence of skill-biased technical change in 2000. Further, the negative effect of trade on the wages of the less-skilled has moved up the skill distribution over time. This suggests that over the long-run, increasing levels of education may not insulate more skilled workers within developed economies from the impacts of trade.
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Export Performance and State Industrial Growth
January 1990
Working Paper Number:
CES-90-03
This research examines whether state industrial growth over the past decade has occurred independently of changes in manufacturing exports and whether export employment growth responds to the same economic and locational forces as employment growth in domestic production. The empirical results indicate that employment and value added growth are not independent of export sales growth; however, a shift toward export markets is not strongly associated with higher manufacturing growth rates. Traditional factors account for a far greater proportion of the variation in domestic than export employment growth. The results suggest the need for additional research on the sources of state comparative advantage in export markets.
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International Trade and the Changing Demand for Skilled Workers in High-Tech Manufacturing
August 2007
Working Paper Number:
CES-07-22
This paper examines the effects of changing trade pressures on the demand for skilled workers in high-tech and traditional manufacturing industry groupings and in individual high-tech sectors. For industry groupings, changing import and export prices have mixed effects, with coefficients switching signs between wage share and employment share models. These findings suggest that changes in earnings and employment of skilled workers are not moving in the same direction in response to shifting trade pressures. For individual high-tech sectors, both price and orientation measures had significant effects, but the direction of these effects varied substantially by sector.
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