Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'use census'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 29
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Working PaperThe Census Historical Environmental Impacts Frame
October 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-66
The Census Bureau's Environmental Impacts Frame (EIF) is a microdata infrastructure that combines individual-level information on residence, demographics, and economic characteristics with environmental amenities and hazards from 1999 through the present day. To better understand the long-run consequences and intergenerational effects of exposure to a changing environment, we expand the EIF by extending it backward to 1940. The Historical Environmental Impacts Frame (HEIF) combines the Census Bureau's historical administrative data, publicly available 1940 address information from the 1940 Decennial Census, and historical environmental data. This paper discusses the creation of the HEIF as well as the unique challenges that arise with using the Census Bureau's historical administrative data.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperComparison of Child Reporting in the American Community Survey and Federal Income Tax Returns Based on California Birth Records
September 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-55
This paper takes advantage of administrative records from California, a state with a large child population and a significant historical undercount of children in Census Bureau data, dependent information in the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Form 1040 records, and the American Community Survey to characterize undercounted children and compare child reporting. While IRS Form 1040 records offer potential utility for adjusting child undercounting in Census Bureau surveys, this analysis finds overlapping reporting issues among various demographic and economic groups. Specifically, older children, those of Non-Hispanic Black mothers and Hispanic mothers, children or parents with lower English proficiency, children whose mothers did not complete high school, and families with lower income-to-poverty ratio were less frequently reported in IRS 1040 records than other groups. Therefore, using IRS 1040 dependent records may have limitations for accurately representing populations with characteristics associated with the undercount of children in surveys.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperIncorporating Administrative Data in Survey Weights for the Basic Monthly Current Population Survey
January 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-02
Response rates to the Current Population Survey (CPS) have declined over time, raising the potential for nonresponse bias in key population statistics. A potential solution is to leverage administrative data from government agencies and third-party data providers when constructing survey weights. In this paper, we take two approaches. First, we use administrative data to build a non-parametric nonresponse adjustment step while leaving the calibration to population estimates unchanged. Second, we use administratively linked data in the calibration process, matching income data from the Internal Return Service and state agencies, demographic data from the Social Security Administration and the decennial census, and industry data from the Census Bureau's Business Register to both responding and nonresponding households. We use the matched data in the household nonresponse adjustment of the CPS weighting algorithm, which changes the weights of respondents to account for differential nonresponse rates among subpopulations. After running the experimental weighting algorithm, we compare estimates of the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate between the experimental weights and the production weights. Before March 2020, estimates of the labor force participation rates using the experimental weights are 0.2 percentage points higher than the original estimates, with minimal effect on unemployment rate. After March 2020, the new labor force participation rates are similar, but the unemployment rate is about 0.2 percentage points higher in some months during the height of COVID-related interviewing restrictions. These results are suggestive that if there is any nonresponse bias present in the CPS, the magnitude is comparable to the typical margin of error of the unemployment rate estimate. Additionally, the results are overall similar across demographic groups and states, as well as using alternative weighting methodology. Finally, we discuss how our estimates compare to those from earlier papers that calculate estimates of bias in key CPS labor force statistics. This paper is for research purposes only. No changes to production are being implemented at this time.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe 2010 Census Confidentiality Protections Failed, Here's How and Why
December 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-63
Using only 34 published tables, we reconstruct five variables (census block, sex, age, race, and ethnicity) in the confidential 2010 Census person records. Using the 38-bin age variable tabulated at the census block level, at most 20.1% of reconstructed records can differ from their confidential source on even a single value for these five variables. Using only published data, an attacker can verify that all records in 70% of all census blocks (97 million people) are perfectly reconstructed. The tabular publications in Summary File 1 thus have prohibited disclosure risk similar to the unreleased confidential microdata. Reidentification studies confirm that an attacker can, within blocks with perfect reconstruction accuracy, correctly infer the actual census response on race and ethnicity for 3.4 million vulnerable population uniques (persons with nonmodal characteristics) with 95% accuracy, the same precision as the confidential data achieve and far greater than statistical baselines. The flaw in the 2010 Census framework was the assumption that aggregation prevented accurate microdata reconstruction, justifying weaker disclosure limitation methods than were applied to 2010 Census public microdata. The framework used for 2020 Census publications defends against attacks that are based on reconstruction, as we also demonstrate here. Finally, we show that alternatives to the 2020 Census Disclosure Avoidance System with similar accuracy (enhanced swapping) also fail to protect confidentiality, and those that partially defend against reconstruction attacks (incomplete suppression implementations) destroy the primary statutory use case: data for redistricting all legislatures in the country in compliance with the 1965 Voting Rights Act.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperNoncitizen Coverage and Its Effects on U.S. Population Statistics
August 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-42
We produce population estimates with the same reference date, April 1, 2020, as the 2020 Census of Population and Housing by combining 31 types of administrative record (AR) and third-party sources, including several new to the Census Bureau with a focus on noncitizens. Our AR census national population estimate is higher than other Census Bureau official estimates: 1.8% greater than the 2020 Demographic Analysis high estimate, 3.0% more than the 2020 Census count, and 3.6% higher than the vintage-2020 Population Estimates Program estimate. Our analysis suggests that inclusion of more noncitizens, especially those with unknown legal status, explains the higher AR census estimate. About 19.8% of AR census noncitizens have addresses that cannot be linked to an address in the 2020 Census collection universe, compared to 5.7% of citizens, raising the possibility that the 2020 Census did not collect data for a significant fraction of noncitizens residing in the United States under the residency criteria used for the census. We show differences in estimates by age, sex, Hispanic origin, geography, and socioeconomic characteristics symptomatic of the differences in noncitizen coverage.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEstimating the U.S. Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Using Blended Survey Data, Administrative Record Data, and Modeling: Technical Report
April 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-21
This report develops a method using administrative records (AR) to fill in responses for nonresponding American Community Survey (ACS) housing units rather than adjusting survey weights to account for selection of a subset of nonresponding housing units for follow-up interviews and for nonresponse bias. The method also inserts AR and modeling in place of edits and imputations for ACS survey citizenship item nonresponses. We produce Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) tabulations using this enhanced CVAP method and compare them to published estimates. The enhanced CVAP method produces a 0.74 percentage point lower citizen share, and it is 3.05 percentage points lower for voting-age Hispanics. The latter result can be partly explained by omissions of voting-age Hispanic noncitizens with unknown legal status from ACS household responses. Weight adjustments may be less effective at addressing nonresponse bias under those conditions.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperImproving Estimates of Neighborhood Change with Constant Tract Boundaries
May 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-16
Social scientists routinely rely on methods of interpolation to adjust available data to their research needs. This study calls attention to the potential for substantial error in efforts to harmonize data to constant boundaries using standard approaches to areal and population interpolation. We compare estimates from a standard source (the Longitudinal Tract Data Base) to true values calculated by re-aggregating original 2000 census microdata to 2010 tract areas. We then demonstrate an alternative approach that allows the re-aggregated values to be publicly disclosed, using 'differential privacy' (DP) methods to inject random noise to protect confidentiality of the raw data. The DP estimates are considerably more accurate than the interpolated estimates. We also examine conditions under which interpolation is more susceptible to error. This study reveals cause for greater caution in the use of interpolated estimates from any source. Until and unless DP estimates can be publicly disclosed for a wide range of variables and years, research on neighborhood change should routinely examine data for signs of estimation error that may be substantial in a large share of tracts that experienced complex boundary changes.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperRedesigning the Longitudinal Business Database
May 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-08
In this paper we describe the U.S. Census Bureau's redesign and production implementation of the Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) first introduced by Jarmin and Miranda (2002). The LBD is used to create the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS), tabulations describing the entry, exit, expansion, and contraction of businesses. The new LBD and BDS also incorporate information formerly provided by the Statistics of U.S. Businesses program, which produced similar year-to-year measures of employment and establishment flows. We describe in detail how the LBD is created from curation of the input administrative data, longitudinal matching, retiming of economic census-year births and deaths, creation of vintage consistent industry codes and noise factors, and the creation and cleaning of each year of LBD data. This documentation is intended to facilitate the proper use and understanding of the data by both researchers with approved projects accessing the LBD microdata and those using the BDS tabulations.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperDetermination of the 2020 U.S. Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) Using Administrative Records and Statistical Methodology Technical Report
October 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-33
This report documents the efforts of the Census Bureau's Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Internal Expert Panel (IEP) and Technical Working Group (TWG) toward the use of multiple data sources to produce block-level statistics on the citizen voting-age population for use in enforcing the Voting Rights Act. It describes the administrative, survey, and census data sources used, and the four approaches developed for combining these data to produce CVAP estimates. It also discusses other aspects of the estimation process, including how records were linked across the multiple data sources, and the measures taken to protect the confidentiality of the data.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS): Collection and Processing
December 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-51
The U.S. Census Bureau partnered with a team of external researchers to conduct the first-ever large-scale survey of management practices in the United States, the Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS), for reference year 2010. With the help of the research team, the Census Bureau expanded and improved the survey for a second wave for reference year 2015. The MOPS is a supplement to the Annual Survey of Manufacturing (ASM), and so the collection and processing strategy for the MOPS built on the methodology for the ASM, while differing on key dimensions to address the unique nature of management relative to other business data. This paper provides detail on the mail strategy pursued for the MOPS, the collection methods for paper and electronic responses, the processing and estimation procedures, and the official Census Bureau data releases. This detail is useful for all those who have interest in using the MOPS for research purposes, those wishing to understand the MOPS data more deeply, and those with an interest in survey methodology.View Full Paper PDF
