-
Access to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) at the State and Substate Levels: Meaning and Measurement
July 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-44
This study estimates eligibility and access rates for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) administrative data linked with American Community Survey (ACS) data. This study is one result of a long-term research collaboration among USDA's Economic Research Service; the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; USDA's Food and Nutrition Service (FNS); and participating state WIC agencies.'By analyzing WIC participation at the state and substate levels, the report provides insights into program reach and demographic differences. The findings confirm that the Census Bureau estimates meet high statistical reliability standards, providing valuable data for program officials and managers, and other stakeholders, to enhance program outreach and effectiveness. A key focus of the report is the comparison between Census Bureau and USDA, FNS estimates, which differ in methodology and measurement scope.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Integrating Administrative and Survey Data to Estimate WIC Eligibility and Access
July 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-43
The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) provides benefits to low-income, nutritionally at-risk women, infants, and children. To administer WIC, officials and program managers at the federal and state level want to understand who is eligible for the program, who among the eligible population chooses to participate, and who is not accessing the program despite their eligibility. Novel individual-level data linkages between restricted-use WIC Administrative Records and the American Community Survey provide WIC access rates estimated at the state and county levels, as well as estimates disaggregated by the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of individuals and their households. These estimates are developed by the Census-FNS-ERS Joint Project, a research partnership among the U.S. Census Bureau, the US Department of Agriculture's Food and Nutrition Service and Economic Research Service, and state WIC agencies that provide the requisite WIC administrative data to the Census Bureau. This paper details and evaluates our current data linkage and estimation methods, reports results, and identifies areas for improvement and further research.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Experimental Capture/recapture Estimation Using Census and Administrative Data
June 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-38
This report expands upon the innovation of utilizing administrative records and third-party data implemented in the 2020 Census. The 2020 Census used administrative records and third-party data in address canvassing and nonresponse followup operations. The Census Bureau also has a long history of using administrative records of births, deaths, and other information to produce Demographic Analysis coverage estimates. Since 1980, the Census Bureau has produced capture-recapture coverage estimates by conducting an independent post-enumeration survey and utilizing dual system estimation approaches. This report presents the research results of attempting to see if administrative records and third-party data could be utilized to produce capture-recapture coverage estimates. This work uses an Expectation Maximization Log Linear Modeling approach previously researched by Statistics Netherlands and Statistics New Zealand. This report documents some of the experimental results from an evaluation that was part of the 2020 Census Program for Evaluation, Experiments, and Assessments.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
The Impact of Expanding Public Health Insurance on Safety Net Program Participation: Evidence From the ACA Medicaid Expansion
May 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-32
We examine spillover effects from the ACA Medicaid expansion to public programs providing cash and food assistance. We consider program participation in contiguous county pairs crossing state borders, where one state took up the Medicaid expansion and the other did not, allowing us to better control for local economic trends that could affect program participation. We find that the Medicaid expansion increased participation in food assistance and one of the cash programs, with impacts mainly due to participation conditional on eligibility, rather than from labor supply responses. Our results demonstrate the potential for spillovers across safety net programs.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Receipt of Public and Private Food Assistance Across the Rural-Urban Continuum Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Current Population Survey Data
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-51
Background: The nutrition safety net in the United States is critical to supporting food security among households in need. Food assistance in the United States includes both government-funded food programs and private community-based providers who distribute food to in need households. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted experiences of food security and use of private and public food assistance resources. However, this may have differed for households residing in urban versus rural areas. We explored receipt of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits or food from community-based emergency food providers across a detailed measure of the rural-urban continuum before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods: We linked restricted use Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement data to census-tract level United States Department of Agriculture Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes to estimate prevalence of self-reported SNAP participation and receipt of emergency food support across temporal (2015-2019 versus 2020-2021) and socio-spatial (urban, large rural city/town, small rural town, or isolated rural town/area) dimensions. We report prevalences as point estimates with 95% confidence intervals, all weighted for national representation.
Results:
The weighted prevalence of self-reported SNAP participation was 8.9% (8.7-9.2%) in 2015-2019 and 9.1% (8.5-9.5%) in 2020-2021 in urban areas, 11.4% (10.8-12.2%) in 2015-2019 and 11.6% (10.5-12.9%) in 2020-2021 in large rural towns/cities, 13.4% (12.3-14.6%) in 2015-2019 and 12.3% (10.5-14.5%) in 2020-2021 in small rural towns, and 9.7% (8.6-10.9%) in 2015-2019 and 10.9% (8.8-13.4% )in 2020-2021 isolated rural towns. The weighted prevalence of self-reported receipt of emergency food was 4.9% (4.8-5.1%) in 2015-2019 and 6.2% (5.8-6.5%) in 2020-2021 in urban areas, 6.8% (6.2-7.4%) in 2015-2019 and 7.6% (6.6-8.6%) in 2020-2021 in large rural towns/cities, 8.1% (7.3-9.1%) in 2015-2019 and 7.1% (5.7-8.8%) in 2020-2021 in small rural towns, and 6.8% (5.9-7.7%) in 2015-2019 and 8.5% (6.7-10.6%) in 2020-2021 isolated rural towns.
Conclusion: Households in rural communities use public and private food assistance at higher rates than urban areas, but there is variation across communities depending on the level of rurality.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
The Design of Sampling Strata for the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey
February 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-13
The National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS), sponsored by the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) and Food and Nutrition Service (FNS), examines the food purchasing behavior of various subgroups of the U.S. population. These subgroups include participants in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), as well as households who are eligible for but don't participate in these programs. Participants in these social protection programs constitute small proportions of the U.S. population; obtaining an adequate number of such participants in a survey would be challenging absent stratified sampling to target SNAP and WIC participating households. This document describes how the U.S. Census Bureau (which is planning to conduct future versions of the FoodAPS survey on behalf of USDA) created sampling strata to flag the FoodAPS targeted subpopulations using machine learning applications in linked survey and administrative data. We describe the data, modeling techniques, and how well the sampling flags target low-income households and households receiving WIC and SNAP benefits. We additionally situate these efforts in the nascent literature on the use of big data and machine learning for the improvement of survey efficiency.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Geographic Disparities in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementia Mortality in the US: Comparing Impacts of Place of Birth and Place of Residence
January 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-11
Objective: Building on the hypothesis that early-life exposures might influence the onset of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementia (ADRD), this study delves into geographic variations in ADRD mortality in the US. By considering both state of residence and state of birth, we aim to discern the comparative significance of these geospatial factors.
Methods: We conducted a secondary data analysis of the National Longitudinal Mortality Study (NLMS), that has 3.5 million records from 1973-2011 and over 0.5 million deaths. We focused on individuals born in or before 1930, tracked in NLMS cohorts from 1979-2000. Employing multi-level logistic regression, with individuals nested within states of residence and/or states of birth, we assessed the role of geographical factors in ADRD mortality variation.
Results: We found that both state of birth and state of residence account for a modest portion of ADRD mortality variation. Specifically, state of residence explains 1.19% of the total variation in ADRD mortality, whereas state of birth explains only 0.6%. When combined, both state of residence and state of birth account for only 1.05% of the variation, suggesting state of residence could matter more in ADRD mortality outcomes.
Conclusion: Findings of this study suggest that state of residence explains more variation in ADRD mortality than state of birth. These results indicate that factors in later life may present more impactful intervention points for curbing ADRD mortality. While early-life environmental exposures remain relevant, their role as primary determinants of ADRD in later life appears to be less pronounced in this study.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Potential Bias When Using Administrative Data to Measure the Family Income of School-Aged Children
January 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-03
Researchers and practitioners increasingly rely on administrative data sources to measure family income. However, administrative data sources are often incomplete in their coverage of the population, giving rise to potential bias in family income measures, particularly if coverage deficiencies are not well understood. We focus on the school-aged child population, due to its particular import to research and policy, and because of the unique challenges of linking children to family income information. We find that two of the most significant administrative sources of family income information that permit linking of children and parents'IRS Form 1040 and SNAP participation records'usefully complement each other, potentially reducing coverage bias when used together. In a case study considering how best to measure economic disadvantage rates in the public school student population, we demonstrate the sensitivity of family income statistics to assumptions about individuals who do not appear in administrative data sources.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Food Security Status Across the Rural-Urban Continuum Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
January 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-01
Background: Food security, defined as consistent access to sufficient food to support an active life, is a crucial social determinant of health. A key dimension affecting food security is position along the rural-urban continuum, as there are important socio-economic and environmental differences between communities related to urbanicity or rurality that impact food access. The COVID-19 pandemic created social and economic shocks that altered financial and food security, which may have had differential effects by rurality and urbanicity. However, there has been limited research on how food security differs across the shades of the rural-urban community spectrum, as most often researchers have characterized communities as either urban or rural.
Methods: In this study, which linked restricted use Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement data to census-tract level United States Department of Agriculture Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes, we estimated the prevalence of household food security across temporal (2015-2019 versus 2020-2021) and socio-spatial (urban, large rural city/town, small rural town, or isolated rural town/area) dimensions in order to characterize variations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic by urbanicity/rurality. We report prevalences as point estimates with 95% confidence intervals.
Results: The prevalence of food security was 87.7% (87.5-88.0%) in 2015-2019 and 88.8% (88.4-89.3%) in 2020-2021 for urban areas, 85.5% (84.7-86.2%) in 2015-2019 and 87.1% (85.7-88.3%) in 2020-2021 for large rural towns/cities, 82.8% (81.5-84.1%) in 2015-2019 and 87.3% (85.7-89.2%) in 2020-2021 for small rural towns, and 87.6% (86.3-88.8%) in 2015-2019 and 90.9% (88.7-92.7%) in 2020-2021 for isolated rural towns/areas.
Conclusion: These findings show that rural communities experiences of food security vary and aggregating households in these environments may mask areas of concern and concentrated need.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Nonresponse and Coverage Bias in the Household Pulse Survey: Evidence from Administrative Data
October 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-60
The Household Pulse Survey (HPS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau is a unique survey that provided timely data on the effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on American households and continues to provide data on other emergent social and economic issues. Because the survey has a response rate in the single digits and only has an online response mode, there are concerns about nonresponse and coverage bias. In this paper, we match administrative data from government agencies and third-party data to HPS respondents to examine how representative they are of the U.S. population. For comparison, we create a benchmark of American Community Survey (ACS) respondents and nonrespondents and include the ACS respondents as another point of reference. Overall, we find that the HPS is less representative of the U.S. population than the ACS. However, performance varies across administrative variables, and the existing weighting adjustments appear to greatly improve the representativeness of the HPS. Additionally, we look at household characteristics by their email domain to examine the effects on coverage from limiting email messages in 2023 to addresses from the contact frame with at least 90% deliverability rates, finding no clear change in the representativeness of the HPS afterwards.
View Full
Paper PDF
