Background: Food security, defined as consistent access to sufficient food to support an active life, is a crucial social determinant of health. A key dimension affecting food security is position along the rural-urban continuum, as there are important socio-economic and environmental differences between communities related to urbanicity or rurality that impact food access. The COVID-19 pandemic created social and economic shocks that altered financial and food security, which may have had differential effects by rurality and urbanicity. However, there has been limited research on how food security differs across the shades of the rural-urban community spectrum, as most often researchers have characterized communities as either urban or rural.
Methods: In this study, which linked restricted use Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement data to census-tract level United States Department of Agriculture Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes, we estimated the prevalence of household food security across temporal (2015-2019 versus 2020-2021) and socio-spatial (urban, large rural city/town, small rural town, or isolated rural town/area) dimensions in order to characterize variations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic by urbanicity/rurality. We report prevalences as point estimates with 95% confidence intervals.
Results: The prevalence of food security was 87.7% (87.5-88.0%) in 2015-2019 and 88.8% (88.4-89.3%) in 2020-2021 for urban areas, 85.5% (84.7-86.2%) in 2015-2019 and 87.1% (85.7-88.3%) in 2020-2021 for large rural towns/cities, 82.8% (81.5-84.1%) in 2015-2019 and 87.3% (85.7-89.2%) in 2020-2021 for small rural towns, and 87.6% (86.3-88.8%) in 2015-2019 and 90.9% (88.7-92.7%) in 2020-2021 for isolated rural towns/areas.
Conclusion: These findings show that rural communities experiences of food security vary and aggregating households in these environments may mask areas of concern and concentrated need.
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Receipt of Public and Private Food Assistance Across the Rural-Urban Continuum Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Current Population Survey Data
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-51
Background: The nutrition safety net in the United States is critical to supporting food security among households in need. Food assistance in the United States includes both government-funded food programs and private community-based providers who distribute food to in need households. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted experiences of food security and use of private and public food assistance resources. However, this may have differed for households residing in urban versus rural areas. We explored receipt of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits or food from community-based emergency food providers across a detailed measure of the rural-urban continuum before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods: We linked restricted use Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement data to census-tract level United States Department of Agriculture Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes to estimate prevalence of self-reported SNAP participation and receipt of emergency food support across temporal (2015-2019 versus 2020-2021) and socio-spatial (urban, large rural city/town, small rural town, or isolated rural town/area) dimensions. We report prevalences as point estimates with 95% confidence intervals, all weighted for national representation.
Results:
The weighted prevalence of self-reported SNAP participation was 8.9% (8.7-9.2%) in 2015-2019 and 9.1% (8.5-9.5%) in 2020-2021 in urban areas, 11.4% (10.8-12.2%) in 2015-2019 and 11.6% (10.5-12.9%) in 2020-2021 in large rural towns/cities, 13.4% (12.3-14.6%) in 2015-2019 and 12.3% (10.5-14.5%) in 2020-2021 in small rural towns, and 9.7% (8.6-10.9%) in 2015-2019 and 10.9% (8.8-13.4% )in 2020-2021 isolated rural towns. The weighted prevalence of self-reported receipt of emergency food was 4.9% (4.8-5.1%) in 2015-2019 and 6.2% (5.8-6.5%) in 2020-2021 in urban areas, 6.8% (6.2-7.4%) in 2015-2019 and 7.6% (6.6-8.6%) in 2020-2021 in large rural towns/cities, 8.1% (7.3-9.1%) in 2015-2019 and 7.1% (5.7-8.8%) in 2020-2021 in small rural towns, and 6.8% (5.9-7.7%) in 2015-2019 and 8.5% (6.7-10.6%) in 2020-2021 isolated rural towns.
Conclusion: Households in rural communities use public and private food assistance at higher rates than urban areas, but there is variation across communities depending on the level of rurality.
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The Hidden Costs of Decline: Health Disparities in America's Diminishing Micropolitan Areas
September 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-70
This study examines the relationship between long-term population change and health outcomes in U.S. micropolitan areas, with a focus on life expectancy and mortality disparities. Using a county typology based on the historical population trajectories of micropolitan cores from 1940 to 2020, this analysis reveals that health outcomes are substantially worse in places that experienced sustained decline. These disparities persist even after controlling for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, suggesting that population loss itself is a key driver of poor public health. Declining micropolitan areas are older, less educated, and report high rates of behavioral risk factors, including smoking, excessive drinking, and physical inactivity. By linking historical demographic trends to tract-level data, this analysis highlights the distinct challenges facing the urban cores of shrinking micropolitan areas. Population decline emerges not only as a demographic trend, but as a marker of structural disadvantage with measurable consequences for community health.
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The Rural/Urban Volunteering Divide
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-42
Are rural residents more likely to volunteer than those living in urban places? Although early sociological theory posited that rural residents were more likely to experience social bonds connecting them to their community, increasing their odds of volunteer engagement, empirical support is limited. Drawing upon the full population of rural and urban respondents to the United States Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) Volunteering Supplement (2002-2015), we found that rural respondents are more likely to report volunteering compared to urban respondents, although these differences are decreasing over time. Moreover, we found that propensities for rural and urban volunteerism vary based on differences in both individual and place-based characteristics; further, the size of these effects differ across rural and urban places. These findings have important implications for theory and empirical analysis.
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The Decline of Volunteering in the United States: Is it the Economy?
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-41
This article investigates the complex interactions between local and national economic contexts and volunteering behavior. We examine three dimensions of local economic context'economic disadvantage (e.g., the percentage of families living in poverty), income inequality, and economic growth (e.g., the change in median household income) and the impact of a national/global economic jolt'the Great Recession. Analysis of data from the Current Population Survey's (CPS) Volunteering Supplement (2002-2015) reveals. Individuals who live in places characterized by economic disadvantage and economic inequality are less likely to volunteer than individuals in more advantaged, equitable communities. The recession had a dampening effect on volunteering overall, but it had the largest dampening effect on individual volunteering in communities with above average rates of income equality and higher rates of economic growth. While individuals living in rural communities were more likely to volunteer than their urban counterparts before the recession, rural/urban differences disappear after the recession.
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Gifted Identification Across the Distribution of Family Income
December 2025
Authors:
Quentin Brummet,
Andrew Penner,
Emily Penner,
Leah R. Clark,
Michelle Spiegel,
Paul Hanselman,
Nicholas J. Ainsworth,
Aaron J. Ainsworth,
Christopher Cleveland,
Jacob Hibel,
Andrew Saultz
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-73
Currently, 6.1 percent of K-12 students in the United States receive gifted education. Using education and IRS data that provide information on students and their family income, we show pronounced differences in who schools identify as gifted across the distribution of family income. Under 4 percent of students in the lowest income percentile are identified as gifted, compared with 20 percent of those in the top income percentile. Income-based differences persist after accounting for student test scores and exist across students of different sexes and racial/ethnic groups, underscoring the importance of family resources for gifted identification in schools.
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SYNTHETIC DATA FOR SMALL AREA ESTIMATION IN THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY
April 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-19
Small area estimates provide a critical source of information used to study local populations. Statistical agencies regularly collect data from small areas but are prevented from releasing detailed geographical identifiers in public-use data sets due to disclosure concerns. Alternative data dissemination methods used in practice include releasing summary/aggregate tables, suppressing detailed geographic information in public-use data sets, and accessing restricted data via Research Data Centers. This research examines an alternative method for disseminating microdata that contains more geographical details than are currently being released in public-use data files. Specifically, the method replaces the observed survey values with imputed, or synthetic, values simulated from a hierarchical Bayesian model. Confidentiality protection is enhanced because no actual values are released. The method is demonstrated using restricted data from the 2005-2009 American Community Survey. The analytic validity of the synthetic data is assessed by comparing small area estimates obtained from the synthetic data with those obtained from the observed data.
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Do Walmart Supercenters Improve Food Security?
June 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-31
This paper examines the effect of Walmart Supercenters, which lower food prices and expand food availability, on household and child food insecurity. Our food insecurity-related outcomes come from the 2001-2012 waves of the December Current Population Study Food Security Supplement. Using narrow geographic identifiers available in the restricted version of these data, we compute the distance between each household's census tract of residence and the nearest Walmart Supercenter. We estimate instrumental variables models that leverage the predictable geographic expansion patterns of Walmart Supercenters outward from Walmart's corporate headquarters. Results suggest that closer proximity to a Walmart Supercenter improves the food security of households and children, as measured by number of affirmative responses to a food insecurity questionnaire and an indicator for food insecurity. The effects are largest among low-income households and children, but are also sizeable for middle-income children.
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Income Packaging and Economic Disconnection: Do Sources of Support Differ from Other Low-Income Women?
December 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-61
Income packaging, or piecing together cash and non-cash resources from a variety of sources, is a common financial survival strategy among low-income women. This strategy is particularly important for economically disconnected women, who lack both employment income and public cash assistance receipt. Using data from the confidential Census Bureau versions of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this study compares the use of public and private supports between disconnected and connected low-income women, controlling for differences in state welfare rules and county unemployment rates. Findings from bivariate comparisons and multilevel logistic regressions indicate that disconnected women utilize public non-cash supports at similar rates to connected women, but rely more heavily on private sources. Conclusions focus on the policy implications for outreach and program development.
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The Relationship of Personal and Neighborhood Characteristics to Immigrant Fertility
August 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-20
We find that fertility varies by immigrant generation, with significant declines between the first and subsequent generations for groups with large immigrant population. However, we find that personal characteristics--such as educational attainment, marital status, and income levels--are much more important than immigrant generation in understanding fertility outcomes. In fact, generations are not independently important once these personal characteristics are controlled for. We maintain that declining fertility levels among the descendants of Mexican and Central American immigrants are primarily the result of higher educational attainment levels, lower rates of marriage, and lower poverty. For example, a four-year increase in educational attainment decreases children ever born (CEB) by half a child. We conclude that immigrant generation serves as a proxy for changes in other personal characteristics that decrease fertility. Neighborhood characteristics have some bearing on fertility, but the correlations are relatively weak. Among Mexican and Central American immigrants and their descendants, the most consistent predictor of children ever born (CEB) at the neighborhood level is the percentage of Hispanic adults. However, no neighborhood characteristics bear any statistical relationship to current fertility, the measure that emphasizes recent births. This pattern of evidence suggests that the observed relationships between neighborhood characteristics and fertility are based on selection into the neighborhood rather than on neighborhood influences as such.
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School-Based Disability Identification Varies by Student Family Income
December 2025
Authors:
Quentin Brummet,
Andrew Penner,
Emily Penner,
Leah R. Clark,
Michelle Spiegel,
Paul Y. Yoo,
Paul Hanselman,
Nicholas J. Ainsworth,
Christopher Cleveland,
Jacob Hibel,
Andrew Saultz,
Juan Camilo Cristancho
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-74
Currently, 18 percent of K-12 students in the United States receive additional supports through the identification of a disability. Socioeconomic status is viewed as central to understanding who gets identified as having a disability, yet limited large-scale evidence examines how disability identification varies for students from different income backgrounds. Using unique data linking information on Oregon students and their family income, we document pronounced income-based differences in how students are categorized for two school-based disability supports: special education services and Section 504 plans. We find that a quarter of students in the lowest income percentile receive supports through special education, compared with less than seven percent of students in the top income percentile. This pattern may partially reflect differences in underlying disability-related needs caused by poverty. However, we find the opposite pattern for 504 plans, where students in the top income percentiles are two times more likely to receive 504 plan supports. We further document substantial variation in these income-based differences by disability category, by race/ethnicity, and by grade level. Together, these patterns suggest that disability-related needs alone cannot account for the income-based differences that we observe and highlight the complex ways that income shapes the school and family processes that lead to variability in disability classification and services.
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