Accurate measurement of key income variables plays a crucial role in economic research and policy decision-making. However, the presence of item nonresponse and measurement error in survey data can cause biased estimates. These biases can subsequently lead to sub-optimal policy decisions and inefficient allocation of resources. While there have been various studies documenting item nonresponse and measurement error in economic data, there have not been many studies investigating interventions that could reduce item nonresponse and measurement error. In our research, we investigate the impact of monetary incentives on reducing item nonresponse and measurement error for labor and investment income in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Our study utilizes a randomized incentive experiment in Waves 1 and 2 of the 2014 SIPP, which allows us to assess the effectiveness of incentives in reducing item nonresponse and measurement error. We find that households receiving incentives had item nonresponse rates that are 1.3 percentage points lower for earnings and 1.5 percentage points lower for Social Security income. Measurement error was 6.31 percentage points lower at the intensive margin for interest income, and 16.48 percentage points lower for dividend income compared to non-incentive recipient households. These findings provide valuable insights for data producers and users and highlight the importance of implementing strategies to improve data quality in economic research.
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An Analysis of Sample Selection and the Reliability of Using Short-term Earnings Averages in SIPP-SSA Matched Data
December 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-39
In this paper, we document the extent to which the sample of the Survey of Income and Program Participation that is matched to the Social Security Administration's administrative earnings records is nationally representative. We conclude that the match bias is small, so selection is not a serious concern. The matched sample over-represents individuals who are wealthy, who have financial assets or who have received a government-transfer and under-represents individuals who attrited from the SIPP. We use this matched sample to examine the relationship between short-term averages of earnings from the SIPP earnings and average lifetime earnings from the administrative records. Our estimates suggest that using short averages of earnings may understate the effects of permanent income on particular outcomes of interest.
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Self-Employment Income Reporting on Surveys
April 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-19
We examine the relation between administrative income data and survey reports for self-employed and wage-earning respondents from 2000 - 2015. The self-employed report 40 percent more wages and self-employment income in the survey than in tax administrative records; this estimate nets out differences between these two sources that are also shared by wage-earners. We provide evidence that differential reporting incentives are an important explanation of the larger self-employed gap by exploiting a well-known artifact ' self-employed respondents exhibit substantial bunching at the
first EITC kink in their administrative records. We do not observe the same behavior in their survey responses even after accounting for survey measurement concerns.
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Non-Random Assignment of Individual Identifiers and Selection into Linked Data: Implications for Research
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-06
The U.S. Census Bureau's Person Identification Validation System facilitates anonymous linkages between survey and administrative records by assigning Protected Identification Keys (PIKs) to person records. While PIK assignment is generally accurate, some person records are not successfully assigned a PIK, which can lead to sample selection bias in analyses of linked data. Using the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) between 2005 and 2022, we corroborate and extend existing findings on the drivers of PIK assignment, showing that the rate of PIK assignment varies widely across socio-demographic subgroups. Using earnings as a test case, we then show that limiting a survey sample of wage earners to person records with PIKs or successful linkages to W-2 wage records tends to overestimate self-reported wage earnings, on average, indicative of linkage-induced selection bias. In a validation exercise, we demonstrate that reweighting methods, such as inverse probability weighting or entropy balancing, can mitigate this bias.
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The Impact of Expanding Public Health Insurance on Safety Net Program Participation: Evidence From the ACA Medicaid Expansion
May 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-32
We examine spillover effects from the ACA Medicaid expansion to public programs providing cash and food assistance. We consider program participation in contiguous county pairs crossing state borders, where one state took up the Medicaid expansion and the other did not, allowing us to better control for local economic trends that could affect program participation. We find that the Medicaid expansion increased participation in food assistance and one of the cash programs, with impacts mainly due to participation conditional on eligibility, rather than from labor supply responses. Our results demonstrate the potential for spillovers across safety net programs.
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Measuring Income of the Aged in Household Surveys: Evidence from Linked Administrative Records
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-32
Research has shown that household survey estimates of retirement income (defined benefit pensions and defined contribution account withdrawals) suffer from substantial underreporting which biases downward measures of financial well-being among the aged. Using data from both the redesigned 2016 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), each matched with administrative records, we examine to what extent underreporting of retirement income affects key statistics such as reliance on Social Security benefits and poverty among the aged. We find that underreporting of retirement income is still prevalent in the CPS ASEC. While the HRS does a better job than the CPS ASEC in terms of capturing retirement income, it still falls considerably short compared to administrative records. Consequently, the relative importance of Social Security income remains overstated in household surveys'53 percent of elderly beneficiaries in the CPS ASEC and 49 percent in the HRS rely on Social Security for the majority of their incomes compared to 42 percent in the linked administrative data. The poverty rate for those aged 65 and over is also overstated'8.8 percent in the CPS ASEC and 7.4 percent in the HRS compared to 6.4 percent in the linked administrative data. Our results illustrate the effects of using alternative data sources in producing key statistics from the Social Security Administration's Income of the Aged publication.
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Childhood Housing and Adult Earnings: A Between-Siblings Analysis of Housing Vouchers and Public Housing
January 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-48RR
To date, research on the long-term effects of childhood participation in voucher-assisted and public housing has been limited by the lack of data and suitable identification strategies. We create a national level longitudinal data set that enables us to analyze how children's housing experiences affect adult earnings and incarceration rates. While naive estimates suggest there are substantial negative consequences to childhood participation in voucher assisted and public housing, this result appears to be driven largely by selection of households into housing assistance programs. To mitigate this source of bias, we employ household fixed-effects specifications that use only within-household (across-sibling) variation for identification. Compared to naive specifications, household fixed-effects estimates for earnings are universally more positive, and they suggest that there are positive and statistically significant benefits from childhood residence in assisted housing on young adult earnings for nearly all demographic groups. Childhood participation in assisted housing also reduces the likelihood of incarceration across all household race/ethnicity groups. Time spent in voucher-assisted or public housing is especially beneficial for females from non-Hispanic Black households, who experience substantial increases in expected earnings and lower incarceration rates.
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Criminal court fees, earnings, and expenditures: A multi-state RD analysis of survey and administrative data
February 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-06
Millions of people in the United States face fines and fees in the criminal court system each year, totaling over $27 billion in overall criminal debt to-date. In this study, we leverage five distinct natural experiments in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin using regression discontinuity designs to evaluate the causal impact of such financial sanctions and user fees. We consider a range of long-term outcomes including employment, recidivism, household expenditures, and other self-reported measures of well-being, which we measure through a combination of administrative records on earnings and employment, the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System, and household surveys. We find consistent evidence across the range of natural experiments and subgroup analyses of precise null effects on the population, ruling out long-run impacts larger than +/-3.6% on total earnings and +/-4.7% on total recidivism. Failure to find changes in outcomes undermines popular narratives of poverty traps arising from criminal debt but argues against the use of fines and fees as a source of local revenue and as a crime control tool.
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The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records
April 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-14R
We reassess the antipoverty effects of the EITC using unique data linking the CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement to IRS data for the same individuals spanning years 2005-2016. We compare EITC benefits from standard simulators to administrative EITC payments and find that significantly more actual EITC payments flow to childless tax units than predicted, and to those whose family income places them above official poverty thresholds. However, actual EITC payments appear to be target efficient at the tax unit level. In 2016, about 3.1 million persons were lifted out of poverty by the EITC, substantially less than prior estimates.
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Differences in Disability Insurance Allowance Rates
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-54
Allowance rates for disability insurance applications vary by race and ethnicity, but it is unclear to what extent these differences are artifacts of other differing socio-economic and health characteristics, or selection issues in SSA's race and ethnicity data. This paper uses the 2015 American Community Survey linked to 2015-2019 SSA administrative data to investigate DI application allowance rates among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, and Hispanic applicants aged 25-65. The analysis uses regression, propensity score matching, and inverse probability weighting to estimate differences in allowance rates among applicants who are similar on observable characteristics. Relative to raw comparisons, differences by race and ethnicity in multivariate analyses are substantially smaller in magnitude and are generally not statistically significant.
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Screening Out the Needy: the Effects of SNAP Work Requirements
July 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-46
We examine the effectiveness of work requirements as a screening device in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Work requirements for 'able-bodied adults without dependents' were suspended after the Great Recession and gradually reinstated across counties and states in the 2010s. Using linked administrative SNAP and employment data from five states and a triple-differences design, we find that work requirements reduce SNAP participation by seven percent without increasing labor supply and disproportionately screen out low-income individuals. We develop a welfare framework to interpret these results and find that the social costs of work requirements exceed budget savings.
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