Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Social and Economic Supplement'
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Authors
Bruce Meyer - 3
Daniel Weinberg - 3
Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 20
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Working PaperCTC and ACTC Participation Results and IRS-Census Match Methodology, Tax Year 2020
December 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-76
The Child Tax Credit (CTC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) offer assistance to help ease the financial burden of families with children. This paper provides taxpayer and dollar participation estimates for the CTC and ACTC covering tax year 2020. The estimates derive from an approach that relies on linking the 2021 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) to IRS administrative data. This approach, called the Exact Match, uses survey data to identify CTC/ACTC eligible taxpayers and IRS administrative data to indicate which eligible taxpayers claimed and received the credit. Overall in tax year 2020, eligible taxpayers participated in the CTC and ACTC program at a rate of 93 percent while dollar participation was 91 percent.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEITC Participation Results and IRS-Census Match Methodology, Tax Year 2021
December 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-75
The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), enacted in 1975, offers a refundable tax credit to low income working families. This paper provides taxpayer and dollar participation estimates for the EITC covering tax year 2021. The estimates derive from an approach that relies on linking the 2022 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) to IRS administrative data. This approach, called the Exact Match, uses survey data to identify EITC eligible taxpayers and IRS administrative data to indicate which eligible taxpayers claimed and received the credit. Overall in tax year 2021 eligible taxpayers participated in the EITC program at a rate of 78 percent while dollar participation was 81 percent.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperMeasuring Income of the Aged in Household Surveys: Evidence from Linked Administrative Records
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-32
Research has shown that household survey estimates of retirement income (defined benefit pensions and defined contribution account withdrawals) suffer from substantial underreporting which biases downward measures of financial well-being among the aged. Using data from both the redesigned 2016 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), each matched with administrative records, we examine to what extent underreporting of retirement income affects key statistics such as reliance on Social Security benefits and poverty among the aged. We find that underreporting of retirement income is still prevalent in the CPS ASEC. While the HRS does a better job than the CPS ASEC in terms of capturing retirement income, it still falls considerably short compared to administrative records. Consequently, the relative importance of Social Security income remains overstated in household surveys'53 percent of elderly beneficiaries in the CPS ASEC and 49 percent in the HRS rely on Social Security for the majority of their incomes compared to 42 percent in the linked administrative data. The poverty rate for those aged 65 and over is also overstated'8.8 percent in the CPS ASEC and 7.4 percent in the HRS compared to 6.4 percent in the linked administrative data. Our results illustrate the effects of using alternative data sources in producing key statistics from the Social Security Administration's Income of the Aged publication.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperAn Evaluation of the Gender Wage Gap Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data
November 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-34
The narrowing of the gender wage gap has slowed in recent decades. However, current estimates show that, among full-time year-round workers, women earn approximately 18 to 20 percent less than men at the median. Women's human capital and labor force characteristics that drive wages increasingly resemble men's, so remaining differences in these characteristics explain less of the gender wage gap now than in the past. As these factors wane in importance, studies show that others like occupational and industrial segregation explain larger portions of the gender wage gap. However, a major limitation of these studies is that the large datasets required to analyze occupation and industry effectively lack measures of labor force experience. This study combines survey and administrative data to analyze and improve estimates of the gender wage gap within detailed occupations, while also accounting for gender differences in work experience. We find a gender wage gap of 18 percent among full-time, year-round workers across 316 detailed occupation categories. We show the wage gap varies significantly by occupation: while wages are at parity in some occupations, gaps are as large as 45 percent in others. More competitive and hazardous occupations, occupations that reward longer hours of work, and those that have a larger proportion of women workers have larger gender wage gaps. The models explain less of the wage gap in occupations with these attributes. Occupational characteristics shape the conditions under which men and women work and we show these characteristics can make for environments that are more or less conducive to gender parity in earnings.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records
April 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-14R
We reassess the antipoverty effects of the EITC using unique data linking the CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement to IRS data for the same individuals spanning years 2005-2016. We compare EITC benefits from standard simulators to administrative EITC payments and find that significantly more actual EITC payments flow to childless tax units than predicted, and to those whose family income places them above official poverty thresholds. However, actual EITC payments appear to be target efficient at the tax unit level. In 2016, about 3.1 million persons were lifted out of poverty by the EITC, substantially less than prior estimates.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperLabor Market Concentration, Earnings Inequality, and Earnings Mobility
September 2018
Working Paper Number:
carra-2018-10
Using data from the Longitudinal Business Database and Form W-2, I document trends in local industrial concentration from 1976 through 2015 and estimate the effects of that concentration on earnings outcomes within and across demographic groups. Local industrial concentration has generally been declining throughout its distribution over that period, unlike national industrial concentration, which declined sharply in the early 1980s before increasing steadily to nearly its original level beginning around 1990. Estimates indicate that increased local concentration reduces earnings and increases inequality, but observed changes in concentration have been in the opposite direction, and the magnitude of these effects has been modest relative to broader trends; back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the 90/10 earnings ratio was about six percent lower and earnings were about one percent higher in 2015 than they would have been if local concentration were at its 1976 level. Within demographic subgroups, most experience mean earnings reductions and all experience increases in inequality. Estimates of the effects of concentration on earnings mobility are sensitive to specification.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Distributional Effects of Minimum Wages: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data
March 2018
Working Paper Number:
carra-2018-02
States and localities are increasingly experimenting with higher minimum wages in response to rising income inequality and stagnant economic mobility, but commonly used public datasets offer limited opportunities to evaluate the extent to which such changes affect earnings growth. We use administrative earnings data from the Social Security Administration linked to the Current Population Survey to overcome important limitations of public data and estimate effects of the minimum wage on growth incidence curves and income mobility profiles, providing insight into how cross-sectional effects of the minimum wage on earnings persist over time. Under both approaches, we find that raising the minimum wage increases earnings growth at the bottom of the distribution, and those effects persist and indeed grow in magnitude over several years. This finding is robust to a variety of specifications, including alternatives commonly used in the literature on employment effects of the minimum wage. Instrumental variables and subsample analyses indicate that geographic mobility likely contributes to the effects we identify. Extrapolating from our estimates suggests that a minimum wage increase comparable in magnitude to the increase experienced in Seattle between 2013 and 2016 would have blunted some, but not nearly all, of the worst income losses suffered at the bottom of the income distribution during the Great Recession.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperInvestigating the Use of Administrative Records in the Consumer Expenditure Survey
March 2018
Working Paper Number:
carra-2018-01
In this paper, we investigate the potential of applying administrative records income data to the Consumer Expenditure (CE) survey to inform measurement error properties of CE estimates, supplement respondent-collected data, and estimate the representativeness of the CE survey by income level. We match individual responses to Consumer Expenditure Quarterly Interview Survey data collected from July 2013 through December 2014 to IRS administrative data in order to analyze CE questions on wages, social security payroll deductions, self-employment income receipt and retirement income. We find that while wage amounts are largely in alignment between the CE and administrative records in the middle of the wage distribution, there is evidence that wages are over-reported to the CE at the bottom of the wage distribution and under-reported at the top of the wage distribution. We find mixed evidence for alignment between the CE and administrative records on questions covering payroll deductions and self-employment income receipt, but find substantial divergence between CE responses and administrative records when examining retirement income. In addition to the analysis using person-based linkages, we also match responding and non-responding CE sample units to the universe of IRS 1040 tax returns by address to examine non-response bias. We find that non-responding households are substantially richer than responding households, and that very high income households are less likely to respond to the CE.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperTax Preparers, Refund Anticipation Products, and EITC Noncompliance
December 2017
Working Paper Number:
carra-2017-10
This work examines whether the availability of tax refund anticipation products (either in the form of a loan or a temporary bank account) is associated with higher non-compliance rates for the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). Refund anticipation products are offered by tax preparers as a way for taxpayers to receive a refund faster or to have the tax preparation fee paid from the refund (or both). These products are, on average, costly for taxpayers compared with the average value of a refund, and they are often marketed to low-income taxpayers who may be liquidity constrained or unbanked. Both tax preparers and taxpayers have perverse incentives to use these products, and the temptation of a large refund (for the taxpayer) and added fees and interest (for the tax preparer) may induce erroneous claiming of credits. The paper examines the association between refund anticipation product use and the overpayment of EITC using tax records and survey data linked at the individual level. For taxpayers in the Current Population Survey Annual and Social Economic Supplement, EITC eligibility is estimated based on household characteristics and combined survey and administrative income information; the data include EITC credit receipt, the use of paid tax preparation or online filing, and the receipt of a refund anticipation product. Both the incorrect payment of EITC and the value of EITC overpayment are associated with preparer use, and to a lesser extent with the use of online filing, when compared with paper filing. Incorrect payment is exacerbated for preparer and online filing when a refund anticipation product is purchased. Finally, an exogenous price shock to the tax preparation industry occurred in 2010. This allows for separately identifying a 'preparer effect' on EITC noncompliance. The rate of incorrect payment and the dollar value of overpayment increased in the tax year of the shock for those using a preparer and buying a product.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Potential for Using Combined Survey and Administrative Data Sources to Study Internal Labor Migration
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-55
This paper introduces a novel data set combining survey data from the American Community Survey (ACS) with administrative data on employment from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, in order to study geographic labor mobility. With its rich set of information about individuals at the time of the migration decision, large sample size, and near-comprehensive ability to detect labor mobility, the new combined ACS-LEHD data offers several advantages over the existing data sets that are typically used in the study of migration, such as the Decennial Census, Current Population Survey, and Internal Revenue Service data. An overview of how these different data sets can be employed, and examples demonstrating the usefulness of the newly proposed data set, are provided. Aggregate statistics and stylized facts are generated from the ACS-LEHD data which reveal many of the same features as the existing data sets, including the decline of aggregate mobility throughout the past decade, as well as many of the known demographic differences in migration propensity.View Full Paper PDF
