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Non-Random Assignment of Individual Identifiers and Selection into Linked Data: Implications for Research
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-06
The U.S. Census Bureau's Person Identification Validation System facilitates anonymous linkages between survey and administrative records by assigning Protected Identification Keys (PIKs) to person records. While PIK assignment is generally accurate, some person records are not successfully assigned a PIK, which can lead to sample selection bias in analyses of linked data. Using the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) between 2005 and 2022, we corroborate and extend existing findings on the drivers of PIK assignment, showing that the rate of PIK assignment varies widely across socio-demographic subgroups. Using earnings as a test case, we then show that limiting a survey sample of wage earners to person records with PIKs or successful linkages to W-2 wage records tends to overestimate self-reported wage earnings, on average, indicative of linkage-induced selection bias. In a validation exercise, we demonstrate that reweighting methods, such as inverse probability weighting or entropy balancing, can mitigate this bias.
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Integrating Multiple U.S. Census Bureau Data Assets to Create Standardized Profiles of Program Participants
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-01
The Foundations for Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018 (Evidence Act) directed federal agencies to systematically use data when making policy decisions. In response, the U.S. Census Bureau established the Evidence Group within its Center for Economic Studies (CES). With an interdisciplinary team of economists, sociologists, and statisticians, the Evidence Group can support the broader federal government in their efforts to use existing data to improve program operations without increasing respondent burden. For federal agencies administering social safety net and business assistance programs in particular, the team provides a no-cost evidence-building service that links program records to Census Bureau data assets and creates a series of standardized tables describing participants, their economic outcomes prior to program entry, and the communities where they live. These tables provide partner agencies with the detailed information they need to better understand their participants and potentially make their programs more accountable and effective in reaching their target populations. In this working paper, we describe the standardized tables themselves as well as the data assets available at the Census Bureau to create these tables, the data files produced by the table production process, and the methodology used to merge and harmonize data on participants and subsequently calculate unbiased and accurate estimates. We conclude with a brief discussion of steps taken to ensure confidentiality and data security. This documentation is intended to facilitate proper use and understanding of the standardized tables by partner agencies as well as researchers who are interested in leveraging these tools to explore characteristics of their samples of interest.
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Estimating the Graduate Coverage of Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes
September 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-61
This paper proposes a new methodology for estimating the coverage rate of the Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes data product (PSEO), both as a share of new graduates and as a share of total working-age degree holders in the United States. This paper also assesses how representative PSEO is of the broader population of college graduates across an array of institutional and individual characteristics.
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Unemployment Insurance, Wage Pass-Through, and Endogenous Take-Up
September 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-59
This paper studies how unemployment insurance (UI) generosity affects reservation wages, re-employment wages, and benefit take-up. Using Benefit Accuracy Measurement (BAM) data, we estimate a cross-sectional elasticity of reservation wages with respect to weekly UI benefits of 0.014. Exploiting state variation in Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) intensity and the timing of federal supplements, we find that expanded benefits during COVID-19 increased reservation wages by 8'12 percent. Using CPS rotation data, we also document a 9 percent rise in re-employment wages for UI-eligible workers relative to ineligible workers. Over the same period, the UI take-up rate rose from roughly 30 to 40 percent; Probit estimates indicate that higher benefit levels, rather than changes in observables, account for this increase. A directed search model with an endogenous filing decision replicates these facts: generosity primarily operates through the extensive margin of take-up, which mutes the pass-through from benefits to wages.
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Earnings Measurement Error, Nonresponse and Administrative Mismatch in the CPS
July 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-48
Using the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement matched to Social Security Administration Detailed Earnings Records, we link observations across consecutive years to investigate a relationship between item nonresponse and measurement error in the earnings questions. Linking individuals across consecutive years allows us to observe switching from response to nonresponse and vice versa. We estimate OLS, IV, and finite mixture models that allow for various assumptions separately for men and women. We find that those who respond in both years of the survey exhibit less measurement error than those who respond in one year. Our findings suggest a trade-off between survey response and data quality that should be considered by survey designers, data collectors, and data users.
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CTC and ACTC Participation Results and IRS-Census Match Methodology, Tax Year 2020
December 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-76
The Child Tax Credit (CTC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) offer assistance to help ease the financial burden of families with children. This paper provides taxpayer and dollar participation estimates for the CTC and ACTC covering tax year 2020. The estimates derive from an approach that relies on linking the 2021 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) to IRS administrative data. This approach, called the Exact Match, uses survey data to identify CTC/ACTC eligible taxpayers and IRS administrative data to indicate which eligible taxpayers claimed and received the credit. Overall in tax year 2020, eligible taxpayers participated in the CTC and ACTC program at a rate of 93 percent while dollar participation was 91 percent.
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EITC Participation Results and IRS-Census Match Methodology, Tax Year 2021
December 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-75
The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), enacted in 1975, offers a refundable tax credit to low income working families. This paper provides taxpayer and dollar participation estimates for the EITC covering tax year 2021. The estimates derive from an approach that relies on linking the 2022 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) to IRS administrative data. This approach, called the Exact Match, uses survey data to identify EITC eligible taxpayers and IRS administrative data to indicate which eligible taxpayers claimed and received the credit. Overall in tax year 2021 eligible taxpayers participated in the EITC program at a rate of 78 percent while dollar participation was 81 percent.
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Measuring Income of the Aged in Household Surveys: Evidence from Linked Administrative Records
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-32
Research has shown that household survey estimates of retirement income (defined benefit pensions and defined contribution account withdrawals) suffer from substantial underreporting which biases downward measures of financial well-being among the aged. Using data from both the redesigned 2016 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), each matched with administrative records, we examine to what extent underreporting of retirement income affects key statistics such as reliance on Social Security benefits and poverty among the aged. We find that underreporting of retirement income is still prevalent in the CPS ASEC. While the HRS does a better job than the CPS ASEC in terms of capturing retirement income, it still falls considerably short compared to administrative records. Consequently, the relative importance of Social Security income remains overstated in household surveys'53 percent of elderly beneficiaries in the CPS ASEC and 49 percent in the HRS rely on Social Security for the majority of their incomes compared to 42 percent in the linked administrative data. The poverty rate for those aged 65 and over is also overstated'8.8 percent in the CPS ASEC and 7.4 percent in the HRS compared to 6.4 percent in the linked administrative data. Our results illustrate the effects of using alternative data sources in producing key statistics from the Social Security Administration's Income of the Aged publication.
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An Evaluation of the Gender Wage Gap Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data
November 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-34
The narrowing of the gender wage gap has slowed in recent decades. However, current estimates show that, among full-time year-round workers, women earn approximately 18 to 20 percent less than men at the median. Women's human capital and labor force characteristics that drive wages increasingly resemble men's, so remaining differences in these characteristics explain less of the gender wage gap now than in the past. As these factors wane in importance, studies show that others like occupational and industrial segregation explain larger portions of the gender wage gap. However, a major limitation of these studies is that the large datasets required to analyze occupation and industry effectively lack measures of labor force experience. This study combines survey and administrative data to analyze and improve estimates of the gender wage gap within detailed occupations, while also accounting for gender differences in work experience. We find a gender wage gap of 18 percent among full-time, year-round workers across 316 detailed occupation categories. We show the wage gap varies significantly by occupation: while wages are at parity in some occupations, gaps are as large as 45 percent in others. More competitive and hazardous occupations, occupations that reward longer hours of work, and those that have a larger proportion of women workers have larger gender wage gaps. The models explain less of the wage gap in occupations with these attributes. Occupational characteristics shape the conditions under which men and women work and we show these characteristics can make for environments that are more or less conducive to gender parity in earnings.
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The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records
April 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-14R
We reassess the antipoverty effects of the EITC using unique data linking the CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement to IRS data for the same individuals spanning years 2005-2016. We compare EITC benefits from standard simulators to administrative EITC payments and find that significantly more actual EITC payments flow to childless tax units than predicted, and to those whose family income places them above official poverty thresholds. However, actual EITC payments appear to be target efficient at the tax unit level. In 2016, about 3.1 million persons were lifted out of poverty by the EITC, substantially less than prior estimates.
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