Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'propensity'
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Viewing papers 1 through 9 of 9
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Working PaperDifferences in Disability Insurance Allowance Rates
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-54
Allowance rates for disability insurance applications vary by race and ethnicity, but it is unclear to what extent these differences are artifacts of other differing socio-economic and health characteristics, or selection issues in SSA's race and ethnicity data. This paper uses the 2015 American Community Survey linked to 2015-2019 SSA administrative data to investigate DI application allowance rates among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, and Hispanic applicants aged 25-65. The analysis uses regression, propensity score matching, and inverse probability weighting to estimate differences in allowance rates among applicants who are similar on observable characteristics. Relative to raw comparisons, differences by race and ethnicity in multivariate analyses are substantially smaller in magnitude and are generally not statistically significant.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperNonresponse and Coverage Bias in the Household Pulse Survey: Evidence from Administrative Data
October 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-60
The Household Pulse Survey (HPS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau is a unique survey that provided timely data on the effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on American households and continues to provide data on other emergent social and economic issues. Because the survey has a response rate in the single digits and only has an online response mode, there are concerns about nonresponse and coverage bias. In this paper, we match administrative data from government agencies and third-party data to HPS respondents to examine how representative they are of the U.S. population. For comparison, we create a benchmark of American Community Survey (ACS) respondents and nonrespondents and include the ACS respondents as another point of reference. Overall, we find that the HPS is less representative of the U.S. population than the ACS. However, performance varies across administrative variables, and the existing weighting adjustments appear to greatly improve the representativeness of the HPS. Additionally, we look at household characteristics by their email domain to examine the effects on coverage from limiting email messages in 2023 to addresses from the contact frame with at least 90% deliverability rates, finding no clear change in the representativeness of the HPS afterwards.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperIncorporating Administrative Data in Survey Weights for the 2018-2022 Survey of Income and Program Participation
October 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-58
Response rates to the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) have declined over time, raising the potential for nonresponse bias in survey estimates. A potential solution is to leverage administrative data from government agencies and third-party data providers when constructing survey weights. In this paper, we modify various parts of the SIPP weighting algorithm to incorporate such data. We create these new weights for the 2018 through 2022 SIPP panels and examine how the new weights affect survey estimates. Our results show that before weighting adjustments, SIPP respondents in these panels have higher socioeconomic status than the general population. Existing weighting procedures reduce many of these differences. Comparing SIPP estimates between the production weights and the administrative data-based weights yields changes that are not uniform across the joint income and program participation distribution. Unlike other Census Bureau household surveys, there is no large increase in nonresponse bias in SIPP due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. In summary, the magnitude and sign of nonresponse bias in SIPP is complicated, and the existing weighting procedures may change the sign of nonresponse bias for households with certain incomes and program benefit statuses.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperIncorporating Administrative Data in Survey Weights for the Basic Monthly Current Population Survey
January 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-02
Response rates to the Current Population Survey (CPS) have declined over time, raising the potential for nonresponse bias in key population statistics. A potential solution is to leverage administrative data from government agencies and third-party data providers when constructing survey weights. In this paper, we take two approaches. First, we use administrative data to build a non-parametric nonresponse adjustment step while leaving the calibration to population estimates unchanged. Second, we use administratively linked data in the calibration process, matching income data from the Internal Return Service and state agencies, demographic data from the Social Security Administration and the decennial census, and industry data from the Census Bureau's Business Register to both responding and nonresponding households. We use the matched data in the household nonresponse adjustment of the CPS weighting algorithm, which changes the weights of respondents to account for differential nonresponse rates among subpopulations. After running the experimental weighting algorithm, we compare estimates of the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate between the experimental weights and the production weights. Before March 2020, estimates of the labor force participation rates using the experimental weights are 0.2 percentage points higher than the original estimates, with minimal effect on unemployment rate. After March 2020, the new labor force participation rates are similar, but the unemployment rate is about 0.2 percentage points higher in some months during the height of COVID-related interviewing restrictions. These results are suggestive that if there is any nonresponse bias present in the CPS, the magnitude is comparable to the typical margin of error of the unemployment rate estimate. Additionally, the results are overall similar across demographic groups and states, as well as using alternative weighting methodology. Finally, we discuss how our estimates compare to those from earlier papers that calculate estimates of bias in key CPS labor force statistics. This paper is for research purposes only. No changes to production are being implemented at this time.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions
June 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-20
This paper shows that the unequal incidence of recessions in the labor market amplifies aggregate shocks. Using administrative data from the United States, I document a positive covariance between worker marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) and their elasticities of earnings to GDP, which is a key moment for a new class of heterogeneous-agent models. I define the Matching Multiplier as the increase in the multiplier stemming from this matching of high MPC workers to more cyclical jobs. I show that this covariance is large enough to increase the aggregate MPC by 20 percent over an equal exposure benchmark.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Long Run Impacts of Court-Ordered Desegregation
April 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-11
Court ordered desegregation plans were implemented in hundreds of US school districts nationwide from the 1960s through the 1980s, and were arguably the most substantive national attempt to improve educational access for African American children in modern American history. Using large Census samples that are linked to Social Security records containing county of birth, we implement event studies that estimate the long run effects of exposure to desegregation orders on human capital and labor market outcomes. We find that African Americans who were relatively young when a desegregation order was implemented in their county of birth, and therefore had more exposure to integrated schools, experienced large improvements in adult human capital and labor market outcomes relative to Blacks who were older when a court order was locally implemented. There are no comparable changes in outcomes among whites in counties undergoing an order, or among Blacks who were beyond school ages when a local order was implemented. These effects are strongly concentrated in the South, with largely null findings in other regions. Our data and methodology provide the most comprehensive national assessment to date on the impacts of court ordered desegregation, and strongly indicate that these policies were in fact highly effective at improving the long run socioeconomic outcomes of many Black students.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe effect of child support on selection into marriage and fertility
February 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-04
Child support policies in the United States have expanded dramatically since the mid-1970s and now cover 1 in 5 children. This paper studies the consequences of child support for marriage and fertility decisions. I first introduce a model showing that child support enforces ex ante commitment from men to provide financial support in the event of a child, which (1) increases premarital sex among couples unlikely to marry, and (2) reduces the abortion rate, by lessening the cost of raising a child as a single mom. Using variation in the timing and geography of the rollout of U.S. child support laws relative to the timing of pregnancy, from 1977 to 1992, I find that marriages following an unplanned pregnancy are less likely to occur under strengthened child support laws, accounting for about a 7-8 percentage point reduction relative to a base of 38 percent. I find that the child support rollout reduced the abortion rate by 1-2 per 1000 women aged 15-44, off a base of 28, representing about 50 percent of the total decline in the abortion rate over this period.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperPlanning Parenthood: The Affordable Care Act Young Adult Provision and Pathways to Fertility
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-65
This paper investigates the effect of the Affordable Care Act young adult provision on fertility and related outcomes. The expected effect of the provision on fertility is not clear ex ante. By expanding insurance coverage to young adults, the provision may affect fertility directly through expanded options for obtaining contraceptives as well as through expanded options for obtaining pregnancy-, birth-, and infant-related care, and these may lead to decreased or increased fertility, respectively. In addition, the provision may also affect fertility indirectly through marriage or labor markets, and the direction and magnitude of these effects is difficult to determine. This paper considers the effect of the provision on fertility as well as the contributing channels by applying difference-in-differences-type methods using the 2008-2010 and 2012-2013 American Community Survey, 2006-2009 and 2012-2013 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention abortion surveillance data, and 2006-2010 and 2011-2013 National Survey of Family Growth. Results suggest that the provision is associated with decreases in the likelihood of having given birth and abortion rates and an increase in the likelihood of using long-term hormonal contraceptives.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Impact of Welfare Waivers on Female Headship Decisions
February 2003
Working Paper Number:
CES-03-03
While much of the focus of recent welfare reforms has been on moving recipients from welfare to work, many reforms were also directed at affecting decisions about living arrangements, pregnancy, marriage and cohabitation. This paper focuses on women's decisions to become or remain unmarried mothers, that is, female heads of families. We assess the impact of welfare reform waivers on those decisions while controlling for confounding local economic and social contextual conditions. We pool the 1990, 1992, and 1993 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) which span the calendar time when many states began adopting welfare waivers. For its descriptors of local labor market conditions, the project uses skill specific measures of wages and employment opportunities for counties. We estimate models for levels of female headship and proportional hazard models for entry and exit from female headship. In the hazards, we employ stratified Cox partial likelihood methods and investigate the use of state fixed effects or state stratified hazard models to control for unmeasured state influences. Based on data through 1995, we find limited evidence that workencouraging waivers had a beneficial effect by reducing female headship of families. We find little evidence that family caps, teenage coresidence requirements or termination limits will reduce the number of single-parent families.View Full Paper PDF
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