Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'applicant'
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Viewing papers 1 through 9 of 9
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Working PaperExpectations versus Reality in Business Formation
February 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-11
Using administrative data on 17 million U.S. business applications linked to outcomes, we compare potential entrants' expectations about employer entry and first-year employment with realizations. On average, applicants overestimate employment, mainly because many expect to enter but do not. Among those who expect and achieve entry, employment is typically underestimated. Expected employment predicts entry and realized employment, but conditional on entry realized employment rises less than one-for-one with expectations. Expectation errors are highly heterogeneous and systematically related to application characteristics and local economic conditions, and they predict near-term employment outcomes. A parsimonious model with heterogeneous priors, learning, and pre-entry selection rationalizes these patterns.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperRevisiting the Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-58
Ban-the-Box (BTB) policies intend to help formerly incarcerated individuals find employment by delaying when employers can ask about criminal records. We revisit the finding in Doleac and Hansen (2020) that BTB causes statistical discrimination against minority men. We correct miscoded BTB laws and show that estimates from the Current Population Survey (CPS) remain quantitatively similar, while those from the American Community Survey (ACS) now fail to reject the null hypothesis of no effect of BTB on employment. In contrast to the published estimates, these ACS results are statistically significantly different from the CPS results, indicating a lack of robustness across datasets. We do not find evidence that these differences are due to sample composition or survey weights. There is limited evidence that these divergent results are explained by the different frequencies of these surveys. Differences in sample sizes may also lead to different estimates; the ACS has a much larger sample and more statistical power to detect effects near the corrected CPS estimates.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperDifferences in Disability Insurance Allowance Rates
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-54
Allowance rates for disability insurance applications vary by race and ethnicity, but it is unclear to what extent these differences are artifacts of other differing socio-economic and health characteristics, or selection issues in SSA's race and ethnicity data. This paper uses the 2015 American Community Survey linked to 2015-2019 SSA administrative data to investigate DI application allowance rates among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, and Hispanic applicants aged 25-65. The analysis uses regression, propensity score matching, and inverse probability weighting to estimate differences in allowance rates among applicants who are similar on observable characteristics. Relative to raw comparisons, differences by race and ethnicity in multivariate analyses are substantially smaller in magnitude and are generally not statistically significant.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Impact of Immigration on Firms and Workers: Insights from the H-1B Lottery
April 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-19
We study how random variation in the availability of highly educated, foreign-born workers impacts firm performance and recruitment behavior. We combine two rich data sources: 1) administrative employer-employee matched data from the US Census Bureau; and 2) firm level information on the first large-scale H-1B visa lottery in 2007. Using an event-study approach, we find that lottery wins lead to increases in firm hiring of college-educated, immigrant labor along with increases in scale and survival. These effects are stronger for small, skill-intensive, and high-productivity firms that participate in the lottery. We do not find evidence for displacement of native-born, college-educated workers at the firm level, on net. However, this result masks dynamics among more specific subgroups of incumbents that we further elucidate.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Local Origins of Business Formation: Entry as a Two-Stage Process
July 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-34R
The business entry literature typically observes firms only at the first hire. We provide a new perspective using linked administrative microdata tracking the universe of U.S. business applications and their transition into employer firms. We model entry as a two-stage process: pursuit of a business idea (proxied by a business application) and implementation (transition). Results show these margins are distinct and associate differently with local conditions. While both margins matter, high-startup locations are characterized by high application intensity, whereas low-startup locations exhibit low transition rates, suggesting geographic disparities in entry arise from different dynamics at each stage of the entrepreneurial process.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperUniversal Preschool Lottery Admissions and Its Effects on Long-Run Earnings and Outcomes
March 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-09
We use an admissions lottery to estimate the effect of a universal (non-means tested) preschool program on students' long-run earnings, income, marital status, fertility and geographic mobility. We observe long-run outcomes by linking both admitted and non-admitted individuals to confidential administrative data including tax records. Funding for this preschool program comes from an Indigenous organization, which grants Indigenous students admissions preference and free tuition. We find treated children have between 5 to 6 percent higher earnings as young adults. The results are strongest for individuals from the lower half of the household income distribution in childhood. Likely mechanisms include high-quality teachers and curriculum.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperCombining Rules and Discretion in Economic Development Policy: Evidence on the Impacts of the California Competes Tax Credit
June 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-13
We evaluate the effects of one of a new generation of economic development programs, the California Competes Tax Credit (CCTC), on local job creation. Incorporating perceived best practices from previous initiatives, the CCTC combines explicit eligibility thresholds with some discretion on the part of program officials to select tax credit recipients. The structure and implementation of the program facilitates rigorous evaluation. We exploit detailed data on accepted and rejected applicants to the CCTC, including information on scoring of applicants with regard to program goals and funding decisions, together with restricted access American Community Survey (ACS) data on local economic conditions. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that each CCTC-incentivized job in a census tract increases the number of individuals working in that tract by over two ' a significant local multiplier. We also explore the program's distributional implications and impacts by industry. We find that CCTC awards increase employment among workers residing in both high income and low income communities, and that the local multipliers are larger for non-manufacturing awards than for manufacturing awards.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Impact of Minimum Quality Standards on Firm Entry, Exit and Product Quality: The Case of the Child Care Market
December 2005
Working Paper Number:
CES-05-28
We examine the impact of minimum quality standards on the supply side of the child care market, using a unique panel data set merged from the Census of Services Industries, state regulation data, and administrative accreditation records from the National Association of Education for Young Children. We control for state-specific and time-specific fixed effects in order to mitigate the biases associated with policy endogeneity. We find that the effects of quality standards specifying the labor intensiveness of child care services are strikingly different from those specifying staff qualifications. Higher staff-child ratio requirements deter entry and reduce the number of operating child care establishments. This entry barrier appears to select establishments with better quality into the market and alleviates competition among existing establishments: existing establishments are more likely to receive accreditation and higher profits, and are less likely to exit. By contrast, higher staff-education requirements do not have entry-deterrence effects. They do have the unintended effects of discouraging accreditation, reducing owners' profits, and driving firms out of businesses.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperUnderstanding Selection Processes: Organization Determinants and Performance Outcomes
October 1997
Working Paper Number:
CES-97-14
We use an establishment-level survey to examine the predictors of different types of selection practices as well as the relationship of different selection practices to organizational performance. We find that a wide range of contingencies in the organization, including job requirements, organizational size, union status, salary, and training, predict the intensity and the types of selection practices used. Further, we find that selection intensity has a significant and negative relationship with organizational sales, other things equal, that is driven by the use of less valid selection techniques.View Full Paper PDF
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