Non-Random Assignment of Individual Identifiers and Selection into Linked Data: Implications for Research
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-06
Abstract
The U.S. Census Bureau's Person Identification Validation System facilitates anonymous linkages between survey and administrative records by assigning Protected Identification Keys (PIKs) to person records. While PIK assignment is generally accurate, some person records are not successfully assigned a PIK, which can lead to sample selection bias in analyses of linked data. Using the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) between 2005 and 2022, we corroborate and extend existing findings on the drivers of PIK assignment, showing that the rate of PIK assignment varies widely across socio-demographic subgroups. Using earnings as a test case, we then show that limiting a survey sample of wage earners to person records with PIKs or successful linkages to W-2 wage records tends to overestimate self-reported wage earnings, on average, indicative of linkage-induced selection bias. In a validation exercise, we demonstrate that reweighting methods, such as inverse probability weighting or entropy balancing, can mitigate this bias.
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:
estimating,
survey,
respondent,
earnings,
bias,
matching,
race,
socioeconomic,
census bureau,
irs,
sampling,
household surveys,
earner,
linkage
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identified to contain references to specific institutions, datasets, and other organizations.
:
Internal Revenue Service,
Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Social Security Administration,
Current Population Survey,
American Community Survey,
Social Security Number,
Protected Identification Key,
W-2,
National Academy of Sciences,
Social and Economic Supplement,
Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board,
PIKed,
Person Validation System,
Person Identification Validation System,
Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers,
SSA Numident,
COVID-19,
CPS ASEC
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