The Opportunities and Challenges of Linked IRS Administrative and Census Survey Records in the Study of Migration
July 2018
Working Paper Number:
carra-2018-06
Abstract
This paper details efforts to link administrative records from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to American Community Survey (ACS) and 2010 Census microdata for the study of migration in the United States. Specifically, we (1) document our linkage strategy and methodology for inferring migration in IRS records; (2) model selection into and survival across IRS records to determine suitability for research applications; and (3) gauge the efficacy of the IRS records by demonstrating how they can be used to validate and potentially improve migration responses in ACS microdata. Our results show little evidence of selection or survival bias in the IRS records, suggesting broad generalizability to the nation as a whole. Moreover, we find that the combined IRS 1040, 1099, and W2 records may provide important information on populations that are hard to reach with traditional Census surveys. Finally, while preliminary, the results of our comparison of IRS and ACS migration responses shows that IRS records may be useful in improving ACS migration measurement for respondents whose migration response is proxy, allocated, or imputed. Taking these results together, we discuss the potential applications of our longitudinal IRS dataset to innovations in migration research in the United States.
Document Tags and Keywords
Keywords
Keywords are automatically generated using KeyBERT, a powerful and innovative
keyword extraction tool that utilizes BERT embeddings to ensure high-quality and contextually relevant
keywords.
By analyzing the content of working papers, KeyBERT identifies terms and phrases that capture the essence of the
text, highlighting the most significant topics and trends. This approach not only enhances searchability but
provides connections that go beyond potentially domain-specific author-defined keywords.
:
census data,
microdata,
survey,
respondent,
hispanic,
firms census,
revenue,
record,
federal,
population,
tax,
citizen,
irs,
use census,
filing,
residence,
migration,
census survey,
migrant,
census linked,
census records,
1040
Tags
Tags are automatically generated using a pretrained language model from spaCy, which excels at
several tasks, including entity tagging.
The model is able to label words and phrases by part-of-speech,
including "organizations." By filtering for frequent words and phrases labeled as "organizations", papers are
identified to contain references to specific institutions, datasets, and other organizations.
:
Internal Revenue Service,
Social Security Administration,
Administrative Records,
Decennial Census,
American Community Survey,
Social Security Number,
Master Address File,
2010 Census,
Personally Identifiable Information,
Some Other Race,
Federal Tax Information
Similar Working Papers
Similarity between working papers are determined by an unsupervised neural
network model
know as Doc2Vec.
Doc2Vec is a model that represents entire documents as fixed-length vectors, allowing for the
capture of semantic meaning in a way that relates to the context of words within the document. The model learns to
associate a unique vector with each document while simultaneously learning word vectors, enabling tasks such as
document classification, clustering, and similarity detection by preserving the order and structure of words. The
document vectors are compared using cosine similarity/distance to determine the most similar working papers.
Papers identified with 🔥 are in the top 20% of similarity.
The 10 most similar working papers to the working paper 'The Opportunities and Challenges of Linked IRS Administrative and Census Survey Records in the Study of Migration' are listed below in order of similarity.
-
Working PaperForeign-Born and Native-Born Migration in the U.S.: Evidence from IRS Administrative and Census Survey Records🔥
July 2018
Working Paper Number:
carra-2018-07
This paper details efforts to link administrative records from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to American Community Survey (ACS) and 2010 Census microdata for the study of migration among foreign-born and native-born populations in the United States. Specifically, we (1) document our linkage strategy and methodology for inferring migration in IRS records; (2) model selection into and survival across IRS records to determine suitability for research applications; and (3) gauge the efficacy of the IRS records by demonstrating how they can be used to validate and potentially improve migration responses for native-born and foreign-born respondents in ACS microdata. Our results show little evidence of selection or survival bias in the IRS records, suggesting broad generalizability to the nation as a whole. Moreover, we find that the combined IRS 1040, 1099, and W2 records may provide important information on populations, such as the foreign-born, that may be difficult to reach with traditional Census Bureau surveys. Finally, while preliminary, the results of our comparison of IRS and ACS migration responses shows that IRS records may be useful in improving ACS migration measurement for respondents whose migration response is proxy, allocated, or imputed. Taking these results together, we discuss the potential application of our longitudinal IRS dataset to innovations in migration research on both the native-born and foreign-born populations of the United States.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperInternal Migration in the U.S. During the COVID-19 Pandemic🔥
September 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-50
Survey and administrative internal migration data disagree on whether the COVID-19 pandemic increased or decreased mobility in the U.S. Moreover, though scholars have theorized and documented migration in response to environmental hazards and economic shocks, the novel conditions posed by a global pandemic make it difficult to hypothesize whether and how American migration might change as a result. We link individual-level data from the United States Postal Service's National Change of Address (NCOA) registry to American Community Survey (ACS) and Current Population Survey (CPS-ASEC) responses and other administrative records to document changes in the level, geography, and composition of migrant flows between 2019 and 2021. We find a 2% increase in address changes between 2019 and 2020, representing an additional 603,000 moves, driven primarily by young adults, earners at the extremes of the income distribution, and individuals (as opposed to families) moving over longer distances. Though the number of address changes returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2021, the pandemic-era geographic and compositional shifts in favor of longer distance moves away from the Pacific and Mid-Atlantic regions toward the South and in favor of younger, individual movers persisted. We also show that at least part of the disconnect between survey, media, and administrative/third-party migration data sources stems from the apparent misreporting of address changes on Census Bureau surveys. Among ACS and CPS-ASEC householders linked to NCOA data and filing a permanent change of address in their 1-year survey response reference period, only around 68% of ACS and 49% of CPS-ASEC householders also reported living in a different residence one year ago in their survey response.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperThe Census Historical Environmental Impacts Frame🔥
October 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-66
The Census Bureau's Environmental Impacts Frame (EIF) is a microdata infrastructure that combines individual-level information on residence, demographics, and economic characteristics with environmental amenities and hazards from 1999 through the present day. To better understand the long-run consequences and intergenerational effects of exposure to a changing environment, we expand the EIF by extending it backward to 1940. The Historical Environmental Impacts Frame (HEIF) combines the Census Bureau's historical administrative data, publicly available 1940 address information from the 1940 Decennial Census, and historical environmental data. This paper discusses the creation of the HEIF as well as the unique challenges that arise with using the Census Bureau's historical administrative data.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperAge, Sex, and Racial/Ethnic Disparities and Temporal-Spatial Variation in Excess All-Cause Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Linked Administrative and Census Bureau Data
May 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-18
Research on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States has highlighted substantial racial/ethnic disparities in excess mortality, but reports often differ in the details with respect to the size of these disparities. We suggest that these inconsistencies stem from differences in the temporal scope and measurement of race/ethnicity in existing data. We address these issues using death records for 2010 through 2021 from the Social Security Administration, covering the universe of individuals ever issued a Social Security Number, linked to race/ethnicity responses from the decennial census and American Community Survey. We use these data to (1) estimate excess all-cause mortality at the national level and for age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific subgroups, (2) examine racial/ethnic variation in excess mortality over the course of the pandemic, and (3) explore whether and how racial/ethnic mortality disparities vary across states.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperGeographic Immobility in the United States: Assessing the Prevalence and Characteristics of Those Who Never Migrate Across State Lines Using Linked Federal Tax Microdata
March 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-19
This paper explores the prevalence and characteristics of those who never migrate at the state scale in the U.S. Studying people who never migrate requires regular and frequent observation of their residential location for a lifetime, or at least for many years. A novel U.S. population-sized longitudinal dataset that links individual level Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Social Security Administration (SSA) administrative records supplies this information annually, along with information on income and socio-demographic characteristics. We use these administrative microdata to follow a cohort aged between 15 and 50 in 2001 from 2001 to 2016, differentiating those who lived in the same state every year during this period (i.e., never made an interstate move) from those who lived in more than one state (i.e., made at least one interstate move). We find those who never made an interstate move comprised 75 percent of the total population of this age cohort. This percentage varies by year of age but never falls below 62 percent even for those who were teenagers or young adults in 2001. There are also variations in these percentages by sex, race, nativity, and income, with the latter having the largest effects. We also find substantial variation in these percentages across states. Our findings suggest a need for more research on geographically immobile populations in U.S.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperRESIDENTIAL MOBILITY ACROSS LOCAL AREAS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEALTHY POPULATION
February 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-14
Determining whether population dynamics provide competing explanations to place effects for observed geographic patterns of population health is critical for understanding health inequality. We focus on the working-age population where health disparities are greatest and analyze detailed data on residential mobility collected for the first time in the 2000 US census. Residential mobility over a 5-year period is frequent and selective, with some variation by race and gender. Even so, we find little evidence that mobility biases cross-sectional snapshots of local population health. Areas undergoing large or rapid population growth or decline may be exceptions. Overall, place of residence is an important health indicator; yet, the frequency of residential mobility raises questions of interpretation from etiological or policy perspectives, complicating simple understandings that residential exposures alone explain the association between place and health. Psychosocial stressors related to contingencies of social identity associated with being black, urban, or poor in the U.S. may also have adverse health impacts that track with structural location even with movement across residential areas.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperExploring Administrative Records Use for Race and Hispanic Origin Item Non-Response
December 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-16
Race and Hispanic origin data are required to produce official statistics in the United States. Data collected through the American Community Survey and decennial census address missing data through traditional imputation methods, often relying on information from neighbors. These methods work well if neighbors share similar characteristics, however, the shape and patterns of neighborhoods in the United States are changing. Administrative records may provide more accurate data compared to traditional imputation methods for missing race and Hispanic origin responses. This paper first describes the characteristics of persons with missing demographic data, then assesses the coverage of administrative records data for respondents who do not answer race and Hispanic origin questions in Census data. The paper also discusses the distributional impact of using administrative records race and Hispanic origin data to complete missing responses in a decennial census or survey context.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperDynamics of Race: Joining, Leaving, and Staying in the American Indian/Alaska Native Race Category between 2000 and 2010
August 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-10
Each census for decades has seen the American Indian and Alaska Native population increase substantially more than expected. Changes in racial reporting seem to play an important role in the observed net increases, though research has been hampered by data limitations. We address previously unanswerable questions about race response change among American Indian and Alaska Natives (hereafter 'American Indians') using uniquely-suited (but not nationally representative) linked data from the 2000 and 2010 decennial censuses (N = 3.1 million) and the 2006-2010 American Community Survey (N = 188,131). To what extent do people change responses to include or exclude American Indian? How are people who change responses similar to or different from those who do not? How are people who join a group similar to or different from those who leave it? We find considerable race response change by people in our data, especially by multiple-race and/or Hispanic American Indians. This turnover is hidden in cross-sectional comparisons because people joining the group are similar in number and characteristics to those who leave the group. People in our data who changed their race response to add or drop American Indian differ from those who kept the same race response in 2000 and 2010 and from those who moved between a single-race and multiple-race American Indian response. Those who consistently reported American Indian (including those who added or dropped another race response) were relatively likely to report a tribe, live in an American Indian area, report American Indian ancestry, and live in the West. There are significant differences between those who joined and those who left a specific American Indian response group, but poor model fit indicates general similarity between joiners and leavers. Response changes should be considered when conceptualizing and operationalizing 'the American Indian and Alaska Native population.'View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperStability and Change in Individual Determinants of Migration: Evidence from 1985-1990 and 1995 to 2000
November 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-27
In this paper, we compare the reliability of migration estimates from two rather different macroeconomic periods in recent U.S. history. One of these periods, 1985-1990 coincides with the culmination of a vast industrial restructuring which saw a significant decline in manufacturing employment. The other period, 1995-2000, encompasses a time of robust economic growth and tight labor markets driven by productivity gains associated with new technologies. Our interest here is in the stability of common individual-level predictors of migration in these rather disparate macroeconomic contexts. Using confidential internal versions of the 1990 and 2000 Census long-form data, we estimate logistic models of the likelihood that individuals will migrate. The geographic detail in the internal Census data permits us to measure migration in ways that are not possible with public-domain Census data on persons. We develop migration definitions that distinguish between local residential mobility likely associated with life course transitions from migration out of the labor market area that may be driven more by employment and other socioeconomic considerations. Using logistic modeling, we find that the same individual attributes predict migration reasonably well during both periods. We also compute some illustrative probabilities of migration that show temporal stability in migration predictors could be lessened by certain changes in population composition.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperCoverage and Agreement of Administrative Records and 2010 American Community Survey Demographic Data
November 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-14
The U.S. Census Bureau is researching possible uses of administrative records in decennial census and survey operations. The 2010 Census Match Study and American Community Survey (ACS) Match Study represent recent efforts by the Census Bureau to evaluate the extent to which administrative records provide data on persons and addresses in the 2010 Census and 2010 ACS. The 2010 Census Match Study also examines demographic response data collected in administrative records. Building on this analysis, we match data from the 2010 ACS to federal administrative records and third party data as well as to previous census data and examine administrative records coverage and agreement of ACS age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin responses. We find high levels of coverage and agreement for sex and age responses and variable coverage and agreement across race and Hispanic origin groups. These results are similar to findings from the 2010 Census Match Study.View Full Paper PDF
