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Estimating the U.S. Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Using Blended Survey Data, Administrative Record Data, and Modeling: Technical Report

April 2023

Abstract

This report develops a method using administrative records (AR) to fill in responses for nonresponding American Community Survey (ACS) housing units rather than adjusting survey weights to account for selection of a subset of nonresponding housing units for follow-up interviews and for nonresponse bias. The method also inserts AR and modeling in place of edits and imputations for ACS survey citizenship item nonresponses. We produce Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) tabulations using this enhanced CVAP method and compare them to published estimates. The enhanced CVAP method produces a 0.74 percentage point lower citizen share, and it is 3.05 percentage points lower for voting-age Hispanics. The latter result can be partly explained by omissions of voting-age Hispanic noncitizens with unknown legal status from ACS household responses. Weight adjustments may be less effective at addressing nonresponse bias under those conditions.

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census data, survey, respondent, ethnicity, hispanic, mexican, immigrant, imputation, immigration, citizen, use census, resident, residence, reside, census household, eligibility, eligible, citizenship, census responses, 1040

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Internal Revenue Service, Social Security Administration, Ordinary Least Squares, Administrative Records, Office of Management and Budget, Current Population Survey, Housing and Urban Development, Department of Justice, Survey of Income and Program Participation, Social Security, Postal Service, Department of Homeland Security, Department of Housing and Urban Development, American Community Survey, Social Security Number, Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research, Master Beneficiary Record, Disability Insurance, Protected Identification Key, American Housing Survey, Computer Assisted Personal Interview, Medicaid Services, Centers for Medicare, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, NUMIDENT, Master Address File, Census Bureau Master Address File, Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board, 2010 Census, Disclosure Review Board, Indian Health Service, Person Validation System, Indian Housing Information Center, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Person Identification Validation System, Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers, MAFID, Census Edited File, Social Science Research Institute, Personally Identifiable Information, Some Other Race, Data Management System, Census Household Composition Key

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