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Comparison of Child Reporting in the American Community Survey and Federal Income Tax Returns Based on California Birth Records
September 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-55
This paper takes advantage of administrative records from California, a state with a large child population and a significant historical undercount of children in Census Bureau data, dependent information in the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Form 1040 records, and the American Community Survey to characterize undercounted children and compare child reporting. While IRS Form 1040 records offer potential utility for adjusting child undercounting in Census Bureau surveys, this analysis finds overlapping reporting issues among various demographic and economic groups. Specifically, older children, those of Non-Hispanic Black mothers and Hispanic mothers, children or parents with lower English proficiency, children whose mothers did not complete high school, and families with lower income-to-poverty ratio were less frequently reported in IRS 1040 records than other groups. Therefore, using IRS 1040 dependent records may have limitations for accurately representing populations with characteristics associated with the undercount of children in surveys.
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Examining Racial Identity Responses Among People with Middle Eastern and North African Ancestry in the American Community Survey
March 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-14
People with Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) backgrounds living in the United States are defined and classified as White by current Federal standards for race and ethnicity, yet many MENA people do not identify as White in surveys, such as those conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. Instead, they often select 'Some Other Race', if it is provided, and write in MENA responses such as Arab, Iranian, or Middle Eastern. In processing survey data for public release, the Census Bureau classifies these responses as White in accordance with Federal guidance set by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. Research that uses these edited public data relies on limited information on MENA people's racial identification. To address this limitation, we obtained unedited race responses in the nationally representative American Community Survey from 2005-2019 to better understand how people of MENA ancestry report their race. We also use these data to compare the demographic, cultural, socioeconomic, and contextual characteristics of MENA individuals who identify as White versus those who do not identify as White. We find that one in four MENA people do not select White alone as their racial identity, despite official guidance that defines 'White' as people having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa. A variety of individual and contextual factors are associated with this choice, and some of these factors operate differently for U.S.-born and foreign-born MENA people living in the United States.
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When and Why Does Nonresponse Occur? Comparing the Determinants of Initial Unit Nonresponse and Panel Attrition
September 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-44
Though unit nonresponse threatens data quality in both cross-sectional and panel surveys, little is understood about how initial nonresponse and later panel attrition may be theoretically or empirically distinct phenomena. This study advances current knowledge of the determinants of both unit nonresponse and panel attrition within the context of the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) panel survey, which I link with high-quality federal administrative records, paradata, and geographic data. By exploiting the SIPP's interpenetrated sampling design and relying on cross-classified random effects modeling, this study quantifies the relative effects of sample household, interviewer, and place characteristics on baseline nonresponse and later attrition, addressing a critical gap in the literature. Given the reliance on successful record linkages between survey sample households and federal administrative data in the nonresponse research, this study also undertakes an explicitly spatial analysis of the place-based characteristics associated with successful record linkages in the U.S.
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The Use of Administrative Records and the American Community Survey to Study the Characteristics of Undercounted Young Children in the 2010 Census
May 2018
Working Paper Number:
carra-2018-05
Children under age five are historically one of the most difficult segments of the population to enumerate in the U.S. decennial census. The persistent undercount of young children is highest among Hispanics and racial minorities. In this study, we link 2010 Census data to administrative records from government and third party data sources, such as Medicaid enrollment data and tenant rental assistance program records from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, to identify differences between children reported and not reported in the 2010 Census. In addition, we link children in administrative records to the American Community Survey to identify various characteristics of households with children under age five who may have been missed in the last census. This research contributes to what is known about the demographic, socioeconomic, and household characteristics of young children undercounted by the census. Our research also informs the potential benefits of using administrative records and surveys to supplement the U.S. Census Bureau child population enumeration efforts in future decennial censuses.
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Evaluating the Use of Commercial Data to Improve Survey Estimates of Property Taxes
August 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-06
While commercial data sources offer promise to statistical agencies for use in production of official statistics, challenges can arise as the data are not collected for statistical purposes. This paper evaluates the use of 2008-2010 property tax data from CoreLogic, Inc. (CoreLogic), aggregated from county and township governments from around the country, to improve 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) estimates of property tax amounts for single-family homes. Particularly, the research evaluates the potential to use CoreLogic to reduce respondent burden, to study survey response error and to improve adjustments for survey nonresponse. The research found that the coverage of the CoreLogic data varies between counties as does the correspondence between ACS and CoreLogic property taxes. This geographic variation implies that different approaches toward using CoreLogic are needed in different areas of the country. Further, large differences between CoreLogic and ACS property taxes in certain counties seem to be due to conceptual differences between what is collected in the two data sources. The research examines three counties, Clark County, NV, Philadelphia County, PA and St. Louis County, MO, and compares how estimates would change with different approaches using the CoreLogic data. Mean county property tax estimates are highly sensitive to whether ACS or CoreLogic data are used to construct estimates. Using CoreLogic data in imputation modeling for nonresponse adjustment of ACS estimates modestly improves the predictive power of imputation models, although estimates of county property taxes and property taxes by mortgage status are not very sensitive to the imputation method.
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Coverage and Agreement of Administrative Records and 2010 American Community Survey Demographic Data
November 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-14
The U.S. Census Bureau is researching possible uses of administrative records in decennial census and survey operations. The 2010 Census Match Study and American Community Survey (ACS) Match Study represent recent efforts by the Census Bureau to evaluate the extent to which administrative records provide data on persons and addresses in the 2010 Census and 2010 ACS. The 2010 Census Match Study also examines demographic response data collected in administrative records. Building on this analysis, we match data from the 2010 ACS to federal administrative records and third party data as well as to previous census data and examine administrative records coverage and agreement of ACS age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin responses. We find high levels of coverage and agreement for sex and age responses and variable coverage and agreement across race and Hispanic origin groups. These results are similar to findings from the 2010 Census Match Study.
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Within and Across County Variation in SNAP Misreporting: Evidence from Linked ACS and Administrative Records
July 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-05
This paper examines sub-state spatial and temporal variation in misreporting of participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) using several years of the American Community Survey linked to SNAP administrative records from New York (2008-2010) and Texas (2006-2009). I calculate county false-negative (FN) and false-positive (FP) rates for each year of observation and find that, within a given state and year, there is substantial heterogeneity in FN rates across counties. In addition, I find evidence that FN rates (but not FP rates) persist over time within counties. This persistence in FN rates is strongest among more populous counties, suggesting that when noise from sampling variation is not an issue, some counties have consistently high FN rates while others have consistently low FN rates. This finding is important for understanding how misreporting might bias estimates of sub-state SNAP participation rates, changes in those participation rates, and effects of program participation. This presentation was given at the CARRA Seminar, June 27, 2013
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2010 American Community Survey Match Study
July 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-03
Using administrative records data from federal government agencies and commercial sources, the 2010 ACS Match Study measures administrative records coverage of 2010 ACS addresses, persons, and persons at addresses at different levels of geography as well as by demographic characteristics and response mode. The 2010 ACS Match Study represents a continuation of the research undertaken in the 2010 Census Match Study, the first national-level evaluation of administrative records data coverage. Preliminary results indicate that administrative records provide substantial coverage for addresses and persons in the 2010 ACS (92.7 and 92.1 percent respectively), and less extensive though substantial coverage, for person-address pairs (74.3 percent). In addition, some variation in address, person and/or person-address coverage is found across demographic and response mode groups. This research informs future uses of administrative records in survey and decennial census operations to address the increasing costs of data collection and declining response rates.
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A COMPARISON OF PERSON-REPORTED INDUSTRY TO EMPLOYER-REPORTED INDUSTRY
IN SURVEY AND ADMINISTRATIVE DATA
September 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-47
The Census Bureau collects industry information through surveys and administrative data and creates associated public-use statistics. In this paper, we compare person-reported industry in the American Community Survey (ACS) to employer-reported industry from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) that is part of the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program. This research provides necessary information on the use of administrative data as a supplement to survey data industry information, and the findings will be useful for anyone using industry information from either source. Our project is part of a larger effort to compare information on jobs from household survey data to employer-reported information. This research is the first to compare ACS job data to firm-based administrative data. We find an overall industry sector match rate of 75 percent, and a 61 percent match rate at the 4-digit Census Industry Code (CIC) level. Industry match rates vary by sector and by whether industry sector is classified using ACS or LEHD industry information. The educational services and health care and social assistance sectors have among the highest match rates. The management of companies and enterprises sector has the lowest match rate, using either ACS-reported or LEHD-reported sector. For individuals with imputed industry data, the industry sector match rate is only 14 percent. Our findings suggest that the industry distribution and the sample in a particular industry sector will differ depending on whether ACS or LEHD data are used.
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Firms and Layoffs: The Impact of Unionization on Involuntary Job Loss
March 2003
Working Paper Number:
CES-03-09
This paper focuses on the impact of unionization on involuntary job loss using establishment data from the 1997 National Employer Survey (NES-II) and merging those data with contextual data at the industry level as well as with local labor market data. The estimated logit models included information on unionization rates and employment security provisions present in collective bargaining agreements as factors influencing layoff rates for individual establishments, controlling for establishment size, firm structure, use of non-regular employees, product/service demand and local employment. Results show that the impact of unionization is not significant except for (1) establishments that operate in the non-manufacturing sector; and (2) establishments operating in industries that have major collective bargaining agreements which contain moderate employment security provisions. Under those conditions, unionization decreases layoff rates; otherwise, unionization has no effect on layoff rates. These results provide some evidence that unions may have placed increased emphasis on employment security in order to protect members against involuntary job loss. This is in contrast to earlier studies which found a positive relationship between unionization and layoffs. In addition, establishments in Right-to-Work states have higher rates of involuntary job loss.
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