CREAT: Census Research Exploration and Analysis Tool

Grown-Up Business Cycles

October 2015

Working Paper Number:

CES-15-33

Abstract

We document two striking facts about U.S. firm dynamics and interpret their significance for employment dynamics. The first is the dramatic decline in firm entry and the second is the gradual shift of employment toward older firms since 1980. We show that despite these trends, the lifecycle dynamics of firms and their business cycle properties have remained virtually unchanged. Consequently, aging is the delayed effect of accumulating startup deficits. Together, the decline in the employment contribution of startups and the shift of employment toward more mature firms contributed to the emergence of jobless recoveries in the U.S. economy.

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Keywords Keywords are automatically generated using KeyBERT, a powerful and innovative keyword extraction tool that utilizes BERT embeddings to ensure high-quality and contextually relevant keywords.

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macroeconomic, quarterly, growth, employ, employed, startup, entrepreneur, entrepreneurship, labor, longitudinal, recession, employment growth, trend, firm dynamics, workforce, employment wages, employment dynamics, founder, aging, trends employment, recession employment, employment trends, employment recession

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Internal Revenue Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Center for Economic Studies, National Bureau of Economic Research, Company Organization Survey, Federal Reserve Bank, Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database, Current Population Survey, Longitudinal Business Database, Federal Reserve System, North American Industry Classification System, Business Register, Current Employment Statistics, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, Business Dynamics Statistics, Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics

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