Tipping is a significant form of compensation for many restaurant jobs, but it is poorly measured and therefore not well understood. We combine several large administrative and survey datasets and document patterns in tip reporting that are consistent with systematic under-reporting of tip income. Our analysis indicates that although the vast majority of tipped workers do report earning some tips, the dollar value of tips is under-reported and is sensitive to reporting incentives. In total, we estimate that about eight billion in tips paid at full-service, single-location, restaurants were not captured in tax data annually over the period 2005-2018. Due to changes in payment methods and reporting incentives, tip reporting has increased over time. Our findings have implications for downstream measures dependent on accurate measures of compensation including poverty measurement among tipped restaurant workers.
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Measuring the Effects of the Tipped Minimum Wage Using W-2 Data
June 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-03
While an extensive literature exists on the effects of federal and state minimum wages, the minimum wage received by tipped workers has received less attention. Researchers have found it difficult to capture the hourly wages of tipped workers and thus assess the economic effects of the tipped minimum wage. In this paper, I present a new measure of hourly wages for tipped servers (wait staff and bartenders) using linked W-2 and survey data. I estimate the effect of tipped minimum wages on the wages and hourly tips of servers, as well as server employment and hours worked. I find that higher mandatory tipped minimum wages increase that portion of wages paid by employers, but decrease tip income by a similar percentage. I also find evidence that employment increases over lower values of the tipped minimum wage and then decreases at higher values. These results are consistent with a monopsony model of server employment. The wide variance of tipped minimum wages compared to non-tipped minimums provide insight into monopsony effects that may not be discernible over a smaller range of minimum wage values.
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National Experimental Wellbeing Statistics - Version 1
February 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-04
This is the U.S. Census Bureau's first release of the National Experimental Wellbeing Statistics (NEWS) project. The NEWS project aims to produce the best possible estimates of income and poverty given all available survey and administrative data. We link survey, decennial census, administrative, and third-party data to address measurement error in income and poverty statistics. We estimate improved (pre-tax money) income and poverty statistics for 2018 by addressing several possible sources of bias documented in prior research. We address biases from 1) unit nonresponse through improved weights, 2) missing income information in both survey and administrative data through improved imputation, and 3) misreporting by combining or replacing survey responses with administrative information. Reducing survey error substantially affects key measures of well-being: We estimate median household income is 6.3 percent higher than in survey estimates, and poverty is 1.1 percentage points lower. These changes are driven by subpopulations for which survey error is particularly relevant. For house holders aged 65 and over, median household income is 27.3 percent higher and poverty is 3.3 percentage points lower than in survey estimates. We do not find a significant impact on median household income for householders under 65 or on child poverty. Finally, we discuss plans for future releases: addressing other potential sources of bias, releasing additional years of statistics, extending the income concepts measured, and including smaller geographies such as state and county.
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Self-Employment Income Reporting on Surveys
April 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-19
We examine the relation between administrative income data and survey reports for self-employed and wage-earning respondents from 2000 - 2015. The self-employed report 40 percent more wages and self-employment income in the survey than in tax administrative records; this estimate nets out differences between these two sources that are also shared by wage-earners. We provide evidence that differential reporting incentives are an important explanation of the larger self-employed gap by exploiting a well-known artifact ' self-employed respondents exhibit substantial bunching at the
first EITC kink in their administrative records. We do not observe the same behavior in their survey responses even after accounting for survey measurement concerns.
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Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Tax Notch
July 2017
Working Paper Number:
carra-2017-07
States that declined to raise their Medicaid income eligibility cutoffs to 138 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) created a "coverage gap'' between their existing, often much lower Medicaid eligibility cutoffs and the FPL, the lowest level of income at which the ACA provides refundable, advanceable "premium tax credits'' to subsidize the purchase of private insurance. Lacking access to any form of subsidized health insurance, residents of those states with income in that range face a strong incentive, in the form of a large, discrete increase in post-tax income (i.e. an upward notch) at the FPL, to increase their earnings and obtain the premium tax credit. We investigate the extent to which they respond to that incentive. Using the universe of tax returns, we document excess mass, or bunching, in the income distribution surrounding this notch. Consistent with Saez (2010), we find that bunching occurs only among filers with self-employment income. Specifically, filers without children and married filers with three or fewer children exhibit significant bunching. Analysis of tax data linked to labor supply measures from the American Community Survey, however, suggests that this bunching likely reflects a change in reported income rather than a change in true labor supply. We find no evidence that wage and salary workers adjust their labor supply in response to increased availability of directly purchased health insurance.
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Comparing Measures of Earnings Instability Based on Survey and Adminstrative Reports
August 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-15
In Celik, Juhn, McCue, and Thompson (2009), we found that estimated levels of earnings instability based on data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) were reasonably close to each other and to others' estimates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), but estimates from unemployment insurance (UI) earnings were much larger. Given that the UI data are from administrative records which are often posited to be more accurate than survey reports, this raises concerns that measures based on survey data understate true earnings instability. To address this, we use links between survey samples from the SIPP and UI earnings records in the LEHD database to identify sources of differences in work history and earnings information. Substantial work has been done comparing earnings levels from administrative records to those collected in the SIPP and CPS, but our understanding of earnings instability would benefit from further examination of differences across sources in the properties of changes in earnings. We first compare characteristics of the overall and matched samples to address issues of selection in the matching process. We then compare earnings levels and jobs in the SIPP and LEHD data to identify differences between them. Finally we begin to examine how such differences affect estimates of earnings instability. Our preliminary findings suggest that differences in earnings changes for those in the lower tail of the earnings distribution account for much of the difference in instability estimates.
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Gender Segregation Small Firms
October 1992
Working Paper Number:
CES-92-13
This paper studies interfirm gender segregation in a unique sample of small employers. We focus on small firms because previous research on interfirm segregation has studied only large firms and because it is easier to link the demographic characteristics of employers and employees in small firms. This latter feature permits an assessment of the role of employer discrimination in creating gender segregation. Our first finding is that interfirm segregation is prevalent among small employers. Indeed men and women rarely work in fully integrated firms. Our second finding is that the education and gender of the business owner strongly influence the gender composition of a firm's workforce. This suggests that employer discrimination may be an important cause of workplace gender segregation. Finally, we estimate that interfirm segregation can account for up to 50% of the gender gap in annual earnings.
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NEW EVIDENCE ON SEX SEGREGATION AND SEX DIFFERENCES IN WAGES FROM MATCHED EMPLOYEE-EMPLOYER DATA*
December 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-18
We assemble a new matched employer-employee data set covering essentially all industries and occupations across all regions of the U.S. We use this data set to re-examine the question of the relative contributions to the overall sex gap in wages of sex segregation vs. wage differences by sex within occupation, industry, establishment, and occupation-establishment cells. This new data set is especially useful because earlier research on this topic relied on data sets that covered only a narrow range of industries, occupations, or regions. Our results indicate that a sizable fraction of the sex gap in wages is accounted for by the segregation of women into lower-paying occupations, industries, establishments, and occupations within establishments. Nonetheless, a substantial part of the sex gap in wages remains attributable to the individual's sex. This latter finding contrasts sharply with the conclusions of previous research (especially Groshen, 1991), which indicated that sex segregation accounted for essentially all of the sex wage gap. Further research into the sources of within-establishment within-occupation sex wage differences is therefore much more important than previously thought.
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Using Administrative Earnings Records to Assess Wage Data Quality in the March Current Population Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation
November 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-22
The March Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Survey of Income and Program
Participation (SIPP) produce different aggregates and distributions of annual wages. An excess of
high wages and shortage of low wages occurs in the March CPS. SIPP shows the opposite, an
excess of low wages and shortage of high wages. Exactly-matched Detailed Earnings Records
(DER) from the Social Security Administration allow comparing March CPS and SIPP people's
wages using data independent of the surveys. Findings include the following. March CPS and
SIPP people differ little in their true wage characteristics. March CPS and SIPP represent a
worker's percentile rank better than the dollar amount of wages. Workers with one job and low
work effort have underestimated March CPS wages. March CPS has a higher level of
"underground" wages than SIPP, and increasingly so in the 1990s. March CPS has a higher level
of self-employment income "misclassified" as wages than SIPP, and increasingly so in the 1990s.
These trends may explain one-third of March CPS's 6-percentage-point increase in aggregate
wages relative to independent estimates from 1993 to 1995. Finally, the paper delineates March
CPS occupations disproportionately likely to be absent from the administrative data entirely or to
"misclassify" self-employment income as wages.
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Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data to Better Measure Income: Implications for Poverty, Program Effectiveness and Holes in the Safety Net
October 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-35
We examine the consequences of underreporting of transfer programs in household survey data for several prototypical analyses of low-income populations. We focus on the Current Population Survey (CPS), the source of official poverty and inequality statistics, but provide evidence that our qualitative conclusions are likely to apply to other surveys. We link administrative data for food stamps, TANF, General Assistance, and subsidized housing from New York State to the CPS at the individual level. Program receipt in the CPS is missed for over one-third of housing assistance recipients, 40 percent of food stamp recipients and 60 percent of TANF and General Assistance recipients. Dollars of benefits are also undercounted for reporting recipients, particularly for TANF, General Assistance and housing assistance. We find that the survey data sharply understate the income of poor households, as conjectured in past work by one of the authors. Underreporting in the survey data also greatly understates the effects of anti-poverty programs and changes our understanding of program targeting, often making it seem that welfare programs are less targeted to both the very poorest and middle income households than they are. Using the combined data rather than survey data alone, the poverty reducing effect of all programs together is nearly doubled while the effect of housing assistance is tripled. We also re-examine the coverage of the safety net, specifically the share of people without work or program receipt. Using the administrative measures of program receipt rather than the survey ones often reduces the share of single mothers falling through the safety net by one-half or more.
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Income Effects in Labor Supply: Evidence from Child-Related Tax Benefits
May 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-24
A parent whose child is born in December can claim child-related tax benefits when she files her tax return a few months later. Parents of children born in January must wait more than a year before they can receive child-related tax benefits. As a result, families with December births have higher after-tax income in the first year of a child's life than otherwise similar families with January births. This paper estimates the corresponding income effect on maternal labor supply, testing whether mothers who give birth in December work and earn less in the months following birth. We use data from the American Community Survey, the Survey of Income and Program Participation, and the 2000 Decennial Census. We find that December mothers have a lower probability of working, particularly in the third month after a child's birth. Earnings data from the SIPP indicate that an additional dollar of child-related tax benefits reduces annual maternal earnings in the year following a child's birth by approximately one dollar.
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