Cleansing Floods? Creative Destruction and Government Spending After Disasters
August 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-52
Abstract
Disasters devastate economies, yet productivity can improve in their wake. Why? Using confidential plant-level microdata from the US Census Bureau and an event study design, I trace the creative destruction process that follows large federally declared floods. Exits are concentrated among the least productive plants, whose used machines are then acquired by high-productivity entrants. Survivors upgrade their machinery as they rebuild and see productivity gains. Federal disaster spending facilitates this process by expanding financing access for nimble young and small firms that disproportionately fuel productive reallocation. Without it, financing constraints stifle creative destruction and productivity declines. Ultimately, the relative income gains from federal disaster assistance generate tax revenues far exceeding the policy's upfront cost, making it both efficiency-enhancing and fiscally sound. My findings reveal a novel allocative efficiency channel through which government spending supports post-disaster recovery, with critical implications for a warming world.
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investment,
restructuring,
efficiency,
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spending,
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disaster,
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Longitudinal Business Database,
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago,
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