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Flood Risk, Insurance, and Housing in the United States

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June 2026

Written by: John Voorheis, Suvy Qin

Working Paper Number:

CES-26-37

Abstract

Flooding is among the most salient natural hazards facing households in the United States. A large body of evidence has documented a pattern of disproportionate social vulnerability in floodplains. However, little evidence exists on how household-level exposure to flood risk is distributed. We fill this gap by combining parcel-level flood risk with confidential linked survey and administrative data held at the US Census Bureau. Although net migration to Census blocks in floodplains has increased in recent years, there has been essentially no net migration to parcels with flood risk or change in the overall share of households living in floodplains. Income gradients in flood risk are highly non-linear at the household level, with slightly negative income gradients for the bottom 90 percentiles of the income distribution that are dwarfed by disproportionate exposure in the top decile, especially when considering multiple property ownership. This nonlinearity is largely driven by differences in building type and homeownership within narrow income groups. In contrast to the conclusions in the literature using aggregate data, our household-level analysis suggests that households in floodplains are less disadvantaged and increasingly protected from the impacts of flooding, even as a vulnerable subpopulation of low-income, uninsured homeowners remains.

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wealth, disadvantaged, population, housing, residential, socioeconomic, neighborhood, resident, home, disparity, residence, household income, renter, homeowner, income households, mortgage

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Internal Revenue Service, Social Security Administration, American Community Survey, Social Security Number, Master Address File, Census Bureau Master Address File, Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board, Limited Liability Company, MAFID, Adjusted Gross Income, Federal Emergency Management Agency

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