Resilience After Climate Shocks: Evidence From SBA Disaster Loans
September 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-58
Abstract
We show that natural disasters generate persistent declines in U.S. county employment and net job creation. We then examine whether emergency credit can mitigate these effects. Linking the universe of SBA disaster-loan applications to Census Bureau records, we exploit a credit-score screening rule introduced in 2016 and implement a fuzzy regression discontinuity design around the score cutoff. Firms just above the threshold are substantially more likely to receive government-backed loans, and approval increases employment relative to declined applicants, with effects persisting over subsequent years. The adjustment operates primarily through lower job destruction, while reduced firm exit and stronger job creation also contribute. Overall, SBA lending preserved an estimated 9.8% of the jobs that would otherwise have been lost in disaster-affected counties.
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:
finance,
regression,
lending,
loan,
impact,
decline,
credit,
regress,
risk,
shock,
disaster,
hurricane,
outcome,
crisis
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Small Business Administration,
Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database,
Longitudinal Business Database,
Employer Identification Numbers,
Census Bureau Business Register,
Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board,
Business Dynamics Statistics,
Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics,
Federal Statistical Research Data Center,
COVID-19,
Federal Emergency Management Agency
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