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Measurement Matters: Financial Reporting and Productivity
December 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-72
We examine how differences in financial reporting practices shape firm productivity. Leveraging new audit questions in the U.S. Census Bureau's 2021 Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS), and complementary tax return data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and detailed financial records from Sageworks, we find that (i) variation in reporting quality explains 10-20 percent of intra-industry total factor productivity dispersion, and (ii) evidence of complementarity between the effects of financial audits and management practices driving firm productivity. We then examine the underlying mechanisms. First, audits function as a managerial technology, improving the precision of internal information and raising efficiency, with stronger effects in competitive, low-margin industries and among younger firms. Second, exploiting cross-state variation in tax incentives, we show that audits constrain underreporting and mitigate the downward bias in measured productivity. Together, these results highlight the underrated importance of financial reporting quality driving firm productivity.
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EITC Participation Results and IRS-Census Match Methodology, Tax Year 2021
December 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-75
The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), enacted in 1975, offers a refundable tax credit to low income working families. This paper provides taxpayer and dollar participation estimates for the EITC covering tax year 2021. The estimates derive from an approach that relies on linking the 2022 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) to IRS administrative data. This approach, called the Exact Match, uses survey data to identify EITC eligible taxpayers and IRS administrative data to indicate which eligible taxpayers claimed and received the credit. Overall in tax year 2021 eligible taxpayers participated in the EITC program at a rate of 78 percent while dollar participation was 81 percent.
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Capital Investment and Labor Demand
February 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-04
We study how bonus depreciation, a policy designed to lower the cost of capital, impacted investment and labor demand in the US manufacturing sector. Difference-in-differences estimates using restricted-use US Census Data on manufacturing establishments show that this policy increased both investment and employment, but did not lead to wage or productivity gains. Using a structural model, we show that the primary effect of the policy was to increase the use of all inputs by lowering overall costs of production. The policy further stimulated production employment due to the complementarity of production labor and capital. Supporting this conclusion, we nd that investment is greater in plants with lower labor costs. Our results show that recent policies that incentivize capital investment do not lead manufacturing plants to replace workers with machines.
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The Shifting of the Property Tax on Urban Renters: Evidence from New York State's Homestead Tax Option
December 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-43
In 1981, New York State enabled their cities to adopt the Homestead Tax Option (HTO), which created a multi-tiered property tax system for rental properties in New York City, Buffalo, and Rochester. The HTO enabled these municipalities to impose a higher property tax rate on rental units in buildings with four or more units, compared to rental units in buildings with three or fewer units. Using restricted-use American Housing Survey data and historical property tax rates from each of these cities, we exploit within-unit across-time variation in property tax rates and rents to estimate the degree to which property taxes are shifted onto renters in the form of higher rents. We find that property owners shift approximately 14 percent of an increase in taxes onto renters. This study is the first to use within-unit across time variation in property taxes and rents to identify this shifting effect. Our estimated effect is measurably smaller than most previous studies, which often found shifting effects of over 60 percent.
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Who Values Human Capitalists' Human Capital? Healthcare Spending and Physician Earnings
July 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-23
Is government guiding the invisible hand at the top of the labor market? We study this question among physicians, the most common occupation among the top one percent of income earners, and whose billings comprise one-fifth of healthcare spending. We use a novel linkage of population-wide tax records with the administrative registry of all physicians in the U.S. to study the characteristics of these high earnings, and the influence of government payments in particular. We find a major role for government on the margin, with half of direct changes to government reimbursement rates flowing directly into physicians' incomes. These policies move physicians' relative and absolute incomes more than any reasonable changes to marginal tax rates. At the same time, the overall level of physician earnings can largely be explained by labor market fundamentals of long work and training hours. Competing occupations also pay well and provide a natural lower bound for physician earnings. We conclude that government plays a major role in determining the value of physicians' human capital, but it is unrealistic to use this power to reduce healthcare spending substantially.
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Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Tax Notch
July 2017
Working Paper Number:
carra-2017-07
States that declined to raise their Medicaid income eligibility cutoffs to 138 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) created a "coverage gap'' between their existing, often much lower Medicaid eligibility cutoffs and the FPL, the lowest level of income at which the ACA provides refundable, advanceable "premium tax credits'' to subsidize the purchase of private insurance. Lacking access to any form of subsidized health insurance, residents of those states with income in that range face a strong incentive, in the form of a large, discrete increase in post-tax income (i.e. an upward notch) at the FPL, to increase their earnings and obtain the premium tax credit. We investigate the extent to which they respond to that incentive. Using the universe of tax returns, we document excess mass, or bunching, in the income distribution surrounding this notch. Consistent with Saez (2010), we find that bunching occurs only among filers with self-employment income. Specifically, filers without children and married filers with three or fewer children exhibit significant bunching. Analysis of tax data linked to labor supply measures from the American Community Survey, however, suggests that this bunching likely reflects a change in reported income rather than a change in true labor supply. We find no evidence that wage and salary workers adjust their labor supply in response to increased availability of directly purchased health insurance.
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State Taxation and the Reallocation of Business Activity: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-02
Using Census microdata on multi-state firms, we estimate the impact of state taxes on business activity. For C corporations, employment and the number of establishments have corporate tax elasticities of -0.4, and do not vary with changes in personal tax rates. Pass-through entity activities show tax elasticities of -0.2 to -0.3 with respect to personal tax rates, and are invariant with respect to corporate tax rates. Reallocation of productive resources to other states drives around half the effect. Capital shows similar patterns but is 36% less elastic than labor. The responses are strongest for firms in tradable and footloose industries.
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Income Effects in Labor Supply: Evidence from Child-Related Tax Benefits
May 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-24
A parent whose child is born in December can claim child-related tax benefits when she files her tax return a few months later. Parents of children born in January must wait more than a year before they can receive child-related tax benefits. As a result, families with December births have higher after-tax income in the first year of a child's life than otherwise similar families with January births. This paper estimates the corresponding income effect on maternal labor supply, testing whether mothers who give birth in December work and earn less in the months following birth. We use data from the American Community Survey, the Survey of Income and Program Participation, and the 2000 Decennial Census. We find that December mothers have a lower probability of working, particularly in the third month after a child's birth. Earnings data from the SIPP indicate that an additional dollar of child-related tax benefits reduces annual maternal earnings in the year following a child's birth by approximately one dollar.
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Do Doubled-up Families Minimize Household-level Tax Burden?
September 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-13
This paper examines a method of tax avoidance not previously studied: the sorting of dependent children among related filers who have 'doubled up' in a household for economic reasons. Using the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) linked with 1040 data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), we examine households with children and at least two adult tax filers to determine whether the household minimizes income tax burden, and thus maximizes refunds, by optimally claiming dependents. We examine specifically the relationship between the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the sorting of dependent children among filers in households. We find the following: The propensity to sort increases as the number of filers who are potentially eligible for the EITC increases; sorting probability increases as the optimal household EITC amount increases; and among households with at least one EITC-eligible filer, the propensity to sort increases as the difference between modeled household EITC amount and the optimal amount increases. We also exploit the 2009 change in EITC benefit for families with three or more children, finding that the propensity to sort to exactly three children increased among EITC-eligible filers after the rule change. The results of this analysis improve our understanding of filing behavior, particularly how households form filing units and pool resources, and have implications for poverty measurement in complex households This presentation was given at the CARRA Seminar, July 16, 2014
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EARNINGS ADJUSTMENT FRICTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM SOCIAL SECURITY EARNINGS TEST
September 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-50
We study frictions in adjusting earnings to changes in the Social Security Annual Earnings Test (AET) using a panel of Social Security Administration microdata on one percent of the U.S. population from 1961 to 2006. Individuals continue to "bunch" at the convex kink the AET creates even when they are no longer subject to the AET, consistent with the existence of earnings adjustment frictions in the U.S. We develop a novel framework for estimating an earnings elasticity and an adjustment cost using information on the amount of bunching at kinks before and after policy changes in earnings incentives around the kinks. We apply this method in settings in which individuals face changes in the AET bene.t reduction rate, and we estimate in a baseline case that the earnings elasticity with respect to the implicit net-of-tax share is 0.23, and the .xed cost of adjustment is $152.08.
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