We analyze changes in concentration levels in the U.S. Advertising and Marketing Services industry using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's quinquennial Economic Census and the Service Annual Survey. Heretofore largely ignored, these data allow us to redress some of the measurement problems surrounding estimates found in the existing literature Firm level concentration as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index varies across the sectors comprising the industry, but all are within the range generally considered as indicative of a competitive industry. At the holding company level, the four largest organizations account for about a quarter of the industry's total revenue, a share lower by an order of magnitude than that frequently cited in the trade press.
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Economic Factors Underlying the Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services
August 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-15
This paper addresses a longstanding puzzle involving the unbundling of services that has occurred over more than two decades in the U.S. advertising agency industry: How can the shift from the bundling to the unbundling of services be explained and what accounts for the slow pace of change? Using a cost-based theoretical framework of bundling due to Evans and Salinger (2005, 2008), we develop a simple model of an advertising agency's decision to unbundle its services as a tradeoff between the fixed cost to the advertiser of establishing and maintaining a relationship with an advertising agency and pecuniary economies of scale available in providing media services. The results from an econometric analysis of cross-sectional and pooled data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for quinquenial censuses conducted between 1982 and 2002 support the key predictions of the model. We find that advertising agency establishments are more likely to unbundle if they are large and diversified in their service offerings and are less likely to do so with increasing age and greater geographical scope. We also find a strong trend toward unbundling over time, a result that is partially explained by increases in media prices over time.
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Characteristics of the Top R&D Performing Firms in the U.S.: Evidence from the Survey of Industrial R&D
September 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-33
Innovation drives economic growth and productivity growth, and as such, indicators of innovative activity such as research and development (R&D) expenditures are of paramount importance. We combine Census confidential microdata from two sources in order to examine the characteristics of the top R&D performing firms in the U.S. economy. We use the Survey of Industrial Research and Development (SIRD) to identify the top 200 R&D performing firms in 2003 and, to the extent possible, to trace the evolution of these firms from 1957 to 2007. The Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) further extends our knowledge about these firms and enables us to make comparisons to the U.S. economy. By linking the SIRD and the LBD we are able to create a detailed portrait of the evolution of the top R&D performing firms in the U.S.
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Re-engineering Key National Economic Indicators
July 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-22
Traditional methods of collecting data from businesses and households face increasing challenges. These include declining response rates to surveys, increasing costs to traditional modes of data collection, and the difficulty of keeping pace with rapid changes in the economy. The digitization of virtually all market transactions offers the potential for re-engineering key national economic indicators. The challenge for the statistical system is how to operate in this data-rich environment. This paper focuses on the opportunities for collecting item-level data at the source and constructing key indicators using measurement methods consistent with such a data infrastructure. Ubiquitous digitization of transactions allows price and quantity be collected or aggregated simultaneously at the source. This new architecture for economic statistics creates challenges arising from the rapid change in items sold. The paper explores some recently proposed techniques for estimating price and quantity indices in large scale item-level data. Although those methods display tremendous promise, substantially more research is necessary before they will be ready to serve as the basis for the official economic statistics. Finally, the paper addresses implications for building national statistics from transactions for data collection and for the capabilities and organization of the statistical agencies in the 21st century.
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'Class of Customer' Question from the US Economic Census
September 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-66
The Economic Census (EC) collects detailed information on the class of customers served by establishments'for example, the share of an establishment's sales to other businesses or to government entities'for a subset of sectors in the economy. In this paper, we evaluate the data from the 'Class of Customer' question from the EC, with a particular focus on sales to the government. These data have seldom been used in empirical research and are unique in that they enable researchers to link establishment-level Census data with information on government procurement.
We compile and analyze large volumes of publicly available tabulated data about the class of customer question over time. Using these data, we document three main findings. First, total sales to government from establishments covered by the class of customer question account for approximately 4 percent of GDP'just under half of total government procurement as measured in the national accounts. Second, the sectoral distribution of government expenditure is significantly different from that of private sector spending. Certain industries, such as Construction and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, account for a much larger share of government expenditure relative to private sector expenditure. Third, sales to the government make up a substantial portion of total sales in several sectors'for instance, 70 percent in Facilities Support Services, 30 percent in Waste Treatment and Disposal, and 17 percent in Construction. Finally, we use the microdata to examine nonresponse rates to the class of customer question across establishments based on the number of employees.
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How Big is Small? The Economic Effects of Access to Small Business Subsidies
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-28
Industry size standards that determine eligibility for small business subsidies have vastly increased
over the past decade. We exploit quasi-random variation in the implementation of size standard
increases to study the effects on small firms, subsidy allocation, and industry outcomes using
Census Bureau microdata. Following size standard increases, revenues decline for an industry's
smallest firms, and they are less likely to survive. We link these effects to a reallocation of
government procurement contracts from smaller to larger firms. Consequently, industries become
more concentrated and growth declines. These findings highlight the broad economic effects of
changing eligibility for small business subsidies.
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Talent Recruitment and Firm Performance: The Business of Major League Sports
November 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-54R
Firms rely heavily on their investments in human capital to achieve profits. This research takes advantage of detailed information on worker performance and confidential information on firm revenue and operating costs to investigate the relationship between talent migration and firm profitability in major league sports. One key problem that firms have is identifying performance measures for its workforce, especially for potential employees (recruits). In contrast to nearly all other industries, in the industry of professional team sports, detailed information about the past performance of each individual worker (athlete) is known to all potential employers. First, I demonstrate using public data that worker (athlete) statistics aggregated to the establishment (team) level correlate with success on the field (measured in win percentage). Second, I use confidential data from the 2007 Economic Censuses, and from the 2007 and 2008 Service Annual Surveys to investigate the link between individual worker performance and team profitability, controlling for many other aspects of the sports business, specifically taking account of the mobility of athletic 'stars' and 'superstars' from one team to another. The investigations in this paper provide support for the hypothesis that hiring talented individuals (stars) will increase a firm's profit. However, there is not convincing support for the incremental benefit of hiring superstars. The mixed evidence suggests a benefit on balance.
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Information and Industry Dynamics
August 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-16R
This paper develops a dynamic industry model in which firms compete to acquire customers over time by disseminating information about themselves under the presence of random shocks to their efficiency. The properties of the model's stationary equilibrium are related to empirical regularities on firm and industry dynamics. As an application of the model, the effects of a decline in the cost of information dissemination on firm and industry dynamics are explored.
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Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young
August 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-17
There's been a long, sometimes heated, debate on the role of firm size in employment growth. Despite skepticism in the academic community, the notion that growth is negatively related to firm size remains appealing to policymakers and small business advocates. The widespread and repeated claim from this community is that most new jobs are created by small businesses. Using data from the Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics and Longitudinal Business Database, we explore the many issues regarding the role of firm size and growth that have been at the core of this ongoing debate (such as the role of regression to the mean). We find that the relationship between firm size and employment growth is sensitive to these issues. However, our main finding is that once we control for firm age there is no systematic relationship between firm size and growth. Our findings highlight the important role of business startups and young businesses in U.S. job creation. Business startups contribute substantially to both gross and net job creation. In addition, we find an 'up or out' dynamic of young firms. These findings imply that it is critical to control for and understand the role of firm age in explaining U.S. job creation.
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Mergers and Acquisitions in the United States: 1990-1994
September 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-15
Business merger and acquisition activity has been brisk in the United States in the recent past. Yet very little information has been available to help researchers understand the effects of this activity on jobs, businesses, and the American economy. This paper takes a first look at examining merger and acquisition activity using the newly available Longitudinal Establishment and Enterprise Microdata (LEEM) file. The analysis focuses on industries, establishments, and employment by employment size of firm. A first-time comparison of establishments that were acquired and survived over the 1990-1994 period with those that survived but were not acquired finds that the acquired establishments experienced more job change and, in the end, more net job loss than the nonacquired establishments. Establishments in small firms that were acquired by new or large firms experienced especially rapid job growth; however; job losses in establishments acquired from large firms more than offset these job gains.
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Longitudinal Establishment And Enterprise Microdata (LEEM) Documentation
May 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-09
This paper introduces and documents the new Longitudinal Enterprise and Establishment Microdata (LEEM) database, which has been constructed by Census' Economic Planning and Coordination Division under contract to the Office of Advocacy of the U.S. Small Business Administration. The LEEM links three years (1990, 1994, and 1995) of basic data for each private sector establishment with payroll in any of those years, along with data on the firm to which the establishment belongs each year. The LEEM data will facilitate both broader and more detailed analysis of patterns of job creation and destruction in the U.S., as well as research on the structure and dynamics of U.S. businesses. This paper provides documentation of the construction of LEEM data, summary data on most variables in the database, comparisons of the annual data with that of the nearly identical County Business Patterns, and distributions of establishments and their employment by the size of their firms. This is followed by a simple analysis of changes over time in the attributes of surviving establishments, and a brief discussion of turnover (business births and deaths) in the population and gross changes in employment associated with both establishment turnover and with surviving establishments. It concludes with a summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the LEEM.
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