We analyze changes in concentration levels in the U.S. Advertising and Marketing Services industry using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's quinquennial Economic Census and the Service Annual Survey. Heretofore largely ignored, these data allow us to redress some of the measurement problems surrounding estimates found in the existing literature Firm level concentration as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index varies across the sectors comprising the industry, but all are within the range generally considered as indicative of a competitive industry. At the holding company level, the four largest organizations account for about a quarter of the industry's total revenue, a share lower by an order of magnitude than that frequently cited in the trade press.
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Economic Factors Underlying the Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services
August 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-15
This paper addresses a longstanding puzzle involving the unbundling of services that has occurred over more than two decades in the U.S. advertising agency industry: How can the shift from the bundling to the unbundling of services be explained and what accounts for the slow pace of change? Using a cost-based theoretical framework of bundling due to Evans and Salinger (2005, 2008), we develop a simple model of an advertising agency's decision to unbundle its services as a tradeoff between the fixed cost to the advertiser of establishing and maintaining a relationship with an advertising agency and pecuniary economies of scale available in providing media services. The results from an econometric analysis of cross-sectional and pooled data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for quinquenial censuses conducted between 1982 and 2002 support the key predictions of the model. We find that advertising agency establishments are more likely to unbundle if they are large and diversified in their service offerings and are less likely to do so with increasing age and greater geographical scope. We also find a strong trend toward unbundling over time, a result that is partially explained by increases in media prices over time.
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Characteristics of the Top R&D Performing Firms in the U.S.: Evidence from the Survey of Industrial R&D
September 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-33
Innovation drives economic growth and productivity growth, and as such, indicators of innovative activity such as research and development (R&D) expenditures are of paramount importance. We combine Census confidential microdata from two sources in order to examine the characteristics of the top R&D performing firms in the U.S. economy. We use the Survey of Industrial Research and Development (SIRD) to identify the top 200 R&D performing firms in 2003 and, to the extent possible, to trace the evolution of these firms from 1957 to 2007. The Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) further extends our knowledge about these firms and enables us to make comparisons to the U.S. economy. By linking the SIRD and the LBD we are able to create a detailed portrait of the evolution of the top R&D performing firms in the U.S.
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Re-engineering Key National Economic Indicators
July 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-22
Traditional methods of collecting data from businesses and households face increasing challenges. These include declining response rates to surveys, increasing costs to traditional modes of data collection, and the difficulty of keeping pace with rapid changes in the economy. The digitization of virtually all market transactions offers the potential for re-engineering key national economic indicators. The challenge for the statistical system is how to operate in this data-rich environment. This paper focuses on the opportunities for collecting item-level data at the source and constructing key indicators using measurement methods consistent with such a data infrastructure. Ubiquitous digitization of transactions allows price and quantity be collected or aggregated simultaneously at the source. This new architecture for economic statistics creates challenges arising from the rapid change in items sold. The paper explores some recently proposed techniques for estimating price and quantity indices in large scale item-level data. Although those methods display tremendous promise, substantially more research is necessary before they will be ready to serve as the basis for the official economic statistics. Finally, the paper addresses implications for building national statistics from transactions for data collection and for the capabilities and organization of the statistical agencies in the 21st century.
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'Class of Customer' Question from the US Economic Census
September 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-66
The Economic Census (EC) collects detailed information on the class of customers served by establishments'for example, the share of an establishment's sales to other businesses or to government entities'for a subset of sectors in the economy. In this paper, we evaluate the data from the 'Class of Customer' question from the EC, with a particular focus on sales to the government. These data have seldom been used in empirical research and are unique in that they enable researchers to link establishment-level Census data with information on government procurement.
We compile and analyze large volumes of publicly available tabulated data about the class of customer question over time. Using these data, we document three main findings. First, total sales to government from establishments covered by the class of customer question account for approximately 4 percent of GDP'just under half of total government procurement as measured in the national accounts. Second, the sectoral distribution of government expenditure is significantly different from that of private sector spending. Certain industries, such as Construction and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, account for a much larger share of government expenditure relative to private sector expenditure. Third, sales to the government make up a substantial portion of total sales in several sectors'for instance, 70 percent in Facilities Support Services, 30 percent in Waste Treatment and Disposal, and 17 percent in Construction. Finally, we use the microdata to examine nonresponse rates to the class of customer question across establishments based on the number of employees.
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The Effects of Productvity and Demand-Specific Factors on Plant Survival and Ownership Change in the U.S. Poultry Industry
July 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-20
In this paper we study the productivity-survival link in the U.S. poultry processing industry using the longitudinal data constructed from five Censuses of Manufactures between 1987 and 2007. First, we study the effects of physical productivity and demand-specific factors on plant survival and ownership change. Second, we analyze the determinants of the firm-level expansion. The results show that higher demand-specific factors decrease the probability of exit and increase the probability of ownership change. The effect of physical productivity on the probability of exit or ownership change is generally insignificant. Also, firms with higher demand-specific factors have higher probability to expand whereas the average firm-level physical productivity turns out to be an insignificant determinant of firm expansion.
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Declines in Employer Sponsored Coverage Between 2000 and 2008: Offers, Take-Up, Premium Contributions, and Dependent Options
September 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-23
Even before the current economic downturn, rates of employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) declined substantially, falling six percentage points between 2000 and 2008 for nonelderly Americans. During a previously documented decline in ESI, from 1987 to 1996, the fall was found to be the result of a reduction in enrollment or 'take-up' of offered coverage and not a decline in employer offer/eligibility rates. In this paper, we investigate the components of the more recent decline in ESI coverage by firm size, using data from the MEPS-IC, a large nationally representative survey of employers. We examine changes in offer rates, eligibility rates and take-up rates for coverage, and include a new dimension, the availability of and enrollment in dependent coverage. We investigate how these components changed for employers of different sizes and find that declining coverage rates for small firms were due to declines in both offer and take-up rates while declining rates for large firms were due to declining enrollment in offered coverage. We also find a decrease in the availability of dependent coverage at small employers and a shift towards single coverage across employers of all sizes. Understanding the components of the decline in coverage for small and large firms is important for establishing the baseline for observing the effects of the current economic downturn and the implementation of health insurance reform.
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Allocation of Company Research and Development Expenditures to Industries Using a Tobit Model
November 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-42
This paper uses Census microdata and a regression-based approach to assign multi-division firms' pre-2008 Research and Development (R&D) expenditures to more than one industry. Since multi-division firms conduct R&D in more than one industry, assigning R&D to corresponding industries provides a more accurate representation of where R&D actually takes place and provides a consistent time-series with the National Science Foundation R&D by line of business information. Firm R&D is allocated to industries on the basis of observed industry payroll, as befits the historic importance of payroll in Census assignments of firms to industry. The results demonstrate that the method of assigning R&D to industries on the basis of payroll works well in earlier years, but becomes less effective over time as firms outsource their manufacturing function.
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E-Tailing and its Prospects: Great Expectations Reconsidered
July 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-16
This paper attributes slower than predicted growth in e-commerce retailing to four factors: consumer resistance; the ability of traditional retailers to become multi-channel sellers; prudent official survey and classification practices; and perhaps the limited range of 'pure-play' business models (i.e., retail models that rely mainly on electronic sales). Based on responses to the Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) in the five fourth quarter periods from 2001 to 2005, the paper finds that e-commerce has claimed a small but rapidly growing share of U.S. retailing markets; and that pure play companies are still important drivers of this process. However, it also finds that the capacity of pure-play companies to continue in this role may be nearing its limits, and that the rate of continued growth in e-commerce retailing may depend on the business decisions of large, multi-channel sellers. Qualified researchers can access MRTS-based quarterly e-commerce data for 2001-2005 at the Census Bureau's Regional Data Centers.
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How Big is Small? The Economic Effects of Access to Small Business Subsidies
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-28
Industry size standards that determine eligibility for small business subsidies have vastly increased
over the past decade. We exploit quasi-random variation in the implementation of size standard
increases to study the effects on small firms, subsidy allocation, and industry outcomes using
Census Bureau microdata. Following size standard increases, revenues decline for an industry's
smallest firms, and they are less likely to survive. We link these effects to a reallocation of
government procurement contracts from smaller to larger firms. Consequently, industries become
more concentrated and growth declines. These findings highlight the broad economic effects of
changing eligibility for small business subsidies.
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The Role of Industry Classification in the Estimation of Research and Development Expenditures
November 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-45
This paper uses data from the National Science Foundation's surveys on business research and development (R&D) expenditures that have been linked with data from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database to produce consistent NAICS-based R&D time-series data based on the main product produced by the firm for 1976 to 2008.The results show that R&D spending has shifted away from domestic manufacturing industries in recent years. This is due in part to a shift in U.S. payrolls away from manufacturing establishments for R&D-performing firms.These findings support the notion of an increasingly fragmented production system for R&D-intensive manufacturing firms, whereby U.S. firms control output and provide intellectual property inputs in the form of R&D, but production takes place outside of the firms' U.S. establishments.
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