During the twenty-first century, hurricanes, heavy storms, and flooding have affected many areas in the United States. Natural disasters and climate change can cause property damage and could have an impact on a variety of business outcomes. This paper builds upon existing research and literature that analyzes the impact of natural disasters on businesses. Specifically, we look at the differential effect of eight hurricanes during the period 2000-2009 on establishments in coastal counties relative to establishments in coastal-adjacent or inland counties. Our outcomes of interest include establishment employment and death. We find that following a hurricane event, establishments located in a coastal county have lower employment and increased probability of death relative to establishments in non-coastal counties.
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The Impact of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma on Business Establishments: A GIS Approach
August 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-23
We use Geographic Information System tools to develop estimates of the economic impact of disaster events such as Hurricane Katrina. Our methodology relies on mapping establishments from the Census Bureau's Business Register into damage zones defined by remote sensing information provided by FEMA. The identification of damaged establishments by precisely locating them on a map provides a far more accurate characterization of affected businesses than those typically reported from readily available county level data. The need for prompt estimates is critical since they are more valuable the sooner they are released after a catastrophic event. Our methodology is based on pre-storm data. Therefore, estimates can be made available very quickly to inform the public as well as policy makers. Robustness tests using data from after the storms indicate our GIS estimates, while much smaller than those based on publicly available county-level data, still overstate actual observed losses. We discuss ways to refine and augment the GIS approach to provide even more accurate estimates of the impact of disasters on businesses.
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Storms and Jobs: The Effect of Hurricanes on Individuals' Employment and Earnings over the Long Term*
January 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-21R
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005, destroying homes and businesses and causing mass evacuations. The economic effects of disasters are often studied at a regional level, but little is known about the responsiveness of individuals' employment and earnings to the damages, disruption, and rebuilding'particularly in the longer run. Our analysis is based on data that tracks workers over nine years, including seven years after the storms. We estimate models that compare the evolution of earnings for workers who resided in a storm-affected area with those who resided in a suitable control counties. We find that, on average, the storms reduced the earnings of affected individuals during the first year after the storm. These losses reflect various aspects of the short-run disruption caused by the hurricanes, including job separations, migration to other areas, and business contractions. Starting in the third year after the storms, however, we find that the earnings of affected individuals outpaced the earnings of individuals in the control sample. We provide evidence that the long-term earnings gains were the result of wage growth in the affected areas relative to the control areas, due to reduced labor supply and increased labor demand, especially in sectors related to rebuilding. Despite the short-term earnings losses, we find a net increase in average quarterly earnings among affected individuals over the entire post-storm period. However, those who worked in sectors closely tied to tourism or the size of the local population experienced net earnings losses.
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TAKEN BY STORM: BUSINESS SURVIVAL IN THE AFTERMATH OF HURRICANE KATRINA
April 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-20
We use Hurricane Katrina's damage to the Mississippi coast in 2005 as a natural experiment to study business survival in the aftermath of a cost shock. We find that damaged establishments that returned to operation were more resilient than those that had never been damaged. This effect is particularly strong for establishments belonging to younger and smaller rms. The effect of damage on establishments in older and larger chains was more limited, and they were subsequently less resilient having survived the damage. These selection effects persist up to five years after the initial shock. We interpret these findings as evidence that the effect of the shock is tied to the presence of financial and other constraints.
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Locally Owned Bank Commuting Zone Concentration and Employer Start-Ups in Metropolitan, Micropolitan and Non-Core Rural Commuting Zones from 1970-2010
August 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-34
Access to financial capital is vital for the sustainability of the local business sector in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan communities. Recent research on the restructuring of the financial industry from local owned banks to interstate conglomerates has raised questions about the impact on rural economies. In this paper, we begin our exploration of the Market Concentration Hypothesis and the Local Bank Hypothesis. The former proposes that there is a negative relationship between the percent of banks that are locally owned in the local economy and the rate of business births and continuations, and a positive effect on business deaths, while that latter proposes that there is a positive relationship between the percent of banks that are locally owned in the local economy and the rate of business births and continuations, and a negative effect on business deaths. To examine these hypotheses, we examine the impact of bank ownership concentration (percent of banks that are locally owned in a commuting zone) on business establishment births and deaths in metropolitan, micropolitan and non-core rural commuting zones. We employ panel regression models for the 1980-2010 time frame, demonstrating robustness to several specifications and spatial spillover effects. We find that local bank concentration is positively related to business dynamism in rural commuting zones, providing support to the importance of relational lending in rural areas, while finding support for the importance of market concentration in urban areas. The implications of this research are important for rural sociology, regional economics, and finance.
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Mom-and-Pop Meet Big-Box: Complements or Substitutes?
September 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-34
In part due to the popular perception that Big-Boxes displace smaller, often family owned (a.k.a. Mom-and-Pop) retail establishments, several empirical studies have examined the evidence on how Big-Boxes' impact local retail employment but no clear consensus has emerged. To help shed light on this debate, we exploit establishment-level data with detailed location information from a single metropolitan area to quantify the impact of Big-Box store entry and growth on nearby single unit and local chain stores. We incorporate a rich set of controls for local retail market conditions as well as whether or not the Big-Boxes are in the same sector as the smaller stores. We find a substantial negative impact of Big-Box entry and growth on the employment growth at both single unit and especially smaller chain stores ' but only when the Big-Box activity is both in the immediate area and in the same detailed industry.
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Reservation Nonemployer and Employer Establishments: Data from U.S. Census Longitudinal Business Databases
December 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-50
The presence of businesses on American Indian reservations has been difficult to analyze due to limited data. Akee, Mykerezi, and Todd (AMT; 2017) geocoded confidential data from the U.S. Census Longitudinal Business Database to identify whether employer establishments were located on or off American Indian reservations and then compared federally recognized reservations and nearby county areas with respect to their per capita number of employers and jobs. We use their methods and the U.S. Census Integrated Longitudinal Business Database to develop parallel results for nonemployer establishments and for the combination of employer and nonemployer establishments. Similar to AMT's findings, we find that reservations and nearby county areas have a similar sectoral distribution of nonemployer and nonemployer-plus-employer establishments, but reservations have significantly fewer of them in nearly all sectors, especially when the area population is below 15,000. By contrast to AMT, the average size of reservation nonemployer establishments, as measured by revenue (instead of the jobs measure AMT used for employers), is smaller than the size of nonemployers in nearby county areas, and this is true in most industries as well. The most significant exception is in the retail sector. Geographic and demographic factors, such as population density and per capita income, statistically account for only a small portion of these differences. However, when we assume that nonemployer establishments create the equivalent of one job and use combined employer-plus-nonemployer jobs to measure establishment size, the employer job numbers dominate and we parallel AMT's finding that, due to large job counts in the Arts/Entertainment/Recreation and Public Administration sectors, reservations on average have slightly more jobs per resident than nearby county areas.
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THE DYNAMICS OF LATINO-OWNED BUSINESS WITH COMPARISIONS TO OTHER ETHNICITIES
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-33
This paper employs the Michigan Census Research Data Center to merge three limited-access Census Bureau data sets by individual firm and establishment level to investigate the factors associated with the Latino-owned Business (LOB) location and dynamics over time. The three main LOB outcomes under analysis are as follows: (1) the probability of a business being Latino-owned as opposed to a business being Asian-owned, Black-owned, or White-owned; (2) the probability of new business entry and exit; and (3) LOB employment growth. This paper then compares these factors associated with LOB with past findings on businesses that are Asian-owned, Black-owned, and White-owned. Some notable findings include: (1) only Black business owners are less associated with using personal savings as start-up capital than Latinos; (2) the only significant coefficient on start-up capital source is personal savings and it increases the odds of survival of a Latino business by 4%; (3) on average, having Puerto Rican ancestry decreases the odds of business survival; and (4) LOB are relatively likely to start a business with a small amount of capital, which, in turn, limits their future growth.
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Temperature and Local Industry Concentration
October 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-51
We use plant-level data from the US Census of Manufacturers to study the short and long run effects of temperature on manufacturing activity. We document that temperature shocks significantly increase energy costs and lower the productivity of small manufacturing plants, while large plants are mostly unaffected. In US counties that experienced higher increases in average temperatures between the 1980s and the 2010s, these heterogeneous effects have led to higher concentration of manufacturing activity within large plants, and a reallocation of labor from small to large manufacturing establishments. We offer a preliminary discussion of potential mechanisms explaining why large manufacturing firms might be better equipped for long-run adaptation to climate change, including their ability to hedge across locations, easier access to finance, and higher managerial skills.
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Antitrust Enforcement Increases Economic Activity
October 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-50
We hand-collect and standardize information describing all 3,055 antitrust law suits brought by the Department of Justice (DOJ) between 1971 and 2018. Using restricted establishment-level microdata from the U.S. Census, we compare the economic outcomes of a non-tradable industry in states targeted by DOJ antitrust lawsuits to outcomes of the same industry in other states that were not targeted. We document that DOJ antitrust enforcement actions permanently increase employment by 5.4% and business formation by 4.1%. Using an event-study design, we find (1) a sharp increase in payroll that exceeds the increase in employment, meaning that DOJ antitrust enforcement increases average wages, (2) an economically smaller increase in sales that is statistically insignificant, and (3) a precise increase in the labor share. While we cannot separately measure the quantity and price of output, the increase in production inputs (employment), together with a proportionally smaller increase in sales, strongly suggests that these DOJ antitrust enforcement actions increase the quantity of output and simultaneously decrease the price of output. Our results show that government antitrust enforcement leads to persistently higher levels of economic activity in targeted industries.
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Reservation Employer Establishments: Data from the U.S. Census Longitudinal Business Database
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-57
The presence of employers and jobs on American Indian reservations has been difficult to analyze due to limited data. We are the first to geocode confidential data on employer establishments from the U.S. Census Longitudinal Business Database to identify location on or off American Indian reservations. We identify the per capita establishment count and jobs in reservation-based employer establishments for most federally recognized reservations. Comparisons to nearby non-reservation areas in the lower 48 states across 18 industries reveal that reservations have a similar sectoral distribution of employer establishments but have significantly fewer of them in nearly all sectors, especially when the area population is below 15,000 (as it is on the vast majority of reservations and for the majority of the reservation population). By contrast, the total number of jobs provided by reservation establishments is, on average, at par with or somewhat higher than in nearby county areas but is concentrated among casino-related and government employers. An implication is that average job numbers per establishment are higher in these sectors on reservations, including those with populations below 15,000, while the remaining industries are typically sparser within reservations (in firm count and jobs per capita). Geographic and demographic factors, such as population density and per capita income, statistically account for some but not all of these differences.
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