In this paper, we use linked employer-employee data to study the reallocation of heterogeneous workers between heterogeneous firms. We build on recent evidence of a cyclical job ladder that reallocates workers from low productivity to high productivity firms through job-to-job moves. In this paper we turn to the question of who moves up this job ladder, and the implications for worker sorting across firms. Not surprisingly, we find that job-to-job moves reallocate younger workers disproportionately from less productive to more productive firms. More surprisingly, especially in the context of the recent literature on assortative matching with on-the-job search, we find that job-to-
job moves disproportionately reallocate less-educated workers up the job ladder. This finding holds even though we find that more educated workers are more likely to work with more productive firms. We find that while highly educated workers are less likely to match to low productivity firms, they are also less likely to separate from them, with less-educated workers both more likely to separate to a better employer in expansions and to be shaken off the ladder (separate to nonemployment) in contractions. Our findings underscore the cyclical role job-to-job moves play in matching workers to
better paying employers.
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Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Employers by Firm Size and Firm Wage
June 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-13
Do the job-to-job moves of workers contribute to the cyclicality of employment growth at different types of firms? In this paper, we use linked employer-employee data to provide direct evidence on the role of job-to-job flows in job reallocation in the U.S. economy. To guide our analysis, we look to the theoretical literature on on-the-job search, which predicts that job-to-job flows should reallocate workers from small to large firms. While this prediction is not supported by the data, we do find that job-to-job moves generally reallocate workers from lower paying to higher paying firms, and this reallocation of workers is highly procyclical. During the Great Recession, this firm wage job ladder collapsed, with net worker reallocation to higher wage firms falling to zero. We also find that differential responses of net hires from non-employment play an important role in the patterns of the cyclicality of employment dynamics across firms classified by size and wage. For example, we find that small and low wage firms experience greater reductions in net hires from non-employment during periods of economic contractions.
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Cyclical Worker Flows: Cleansing vs. Sullying
May 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-10
Do recessions speed up or impede productivity-enhancing reallocation? To investigate this question, we use U.S. linked employer-employee data to examine how worker flows contribute to productivity growth over the business cycle. We find that in expansions high-productivity firms grow faster primarily by hiring workers away from lower-productivity firms. The rate at which job-to-job flows move workers up the productivity ladder is highly procyclical. Productivity growth slows during recessions when this job ladder collapses. In contrast, flows into nonemployment from low productivity firms disproportionately increase in recessions, which leads to an increase in productivity growth. We thus find evidence of both sullying and cleansing effects of recessions, but the timing of these effects differs. The cleansing effect dominates early in downturns but the sullying effect lingers well into the economic recovery.
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Pay, Employment, and Dynamics of Young Firms
July 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-23
Why do young firms pay less? Using confidential microdata from the US Census Bureau, we find lower earnings among workers at young firms. However, we argue that such measurement is likely subject to worker and firm selection. Exploiting the two-sided panel nature of the data to control for relevant dimensions of worker and firm heterogeneity, we uncover a positive and significant young-firm pay premium. Furthermore, we show that worker selection at firm birth is related to future firm dynamics, including survival and growth. We tie our empirical findings to a simple model of pay, employment, and dynamics of young firms.
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Earnings Growth, Job Flows and Churn
April 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-15
How much do workers making job-to-job transitions benefit from moving away from a shrinking and towards a growing firm? We show that earnings growth in the transition increases with net employment growth at the destination firm and, to a lesser extent, decreases if the origin firm is shrinking. So, we sum the effect of leaving a shrinking and entering a growing firm and remove the excess turnover-related hires because gross hiring has a much smaller association with earnings growth than net employment growth. We find that job-to-job transitions with the cross-firm job flow have 23% more earnings growth than average.
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Firm Dynamics and Assortative Matching
May 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-25
I study the relationship between firm growth and the characteristics of newly hired workers. Using Census microdata I obtain a novel empirical result: when a given firm grows faster it hires workers with higher past wages. These results suggest that productive, fast-growing firms tend to hire more productive workers, a form of positive assortative matching. This contrasts with prior research that has found negligible or negative sorting between workers and firms. I present evidence that this difference arises because previous studies have focused on cross-sectional comparisons across firms and industries, while my results condition on firm characteristics (e.g. size, industry, or firm fixed effects). Motivated by the empirical findings I develop a search model with heterogeneous workers and firms. The model is the first to study worker-firm sorting in an environment with worker heterogeneity, firm productivity shocks, multi-worker firms, and search frictions. Despite this richness the model is tractable, allowing me to characterize assortative matching, compositional dynamics and other properties analytically. I show that the model reproduces the positive firm growth-quality of hires correlation when worker and firm types are strong complements in production (i.e. the production function is strictly log-supermodular).
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Older and Slower: The Startup Deficit's Lasting Effects on Aggregate Productivity Growth
June 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-29
We investigate the link between declining firm entry, aging incumbent firms and sluggish U.S. productivity growth. We provide a dynamic decomposition framework to characterize the contributions to industry productivity growth across the firm age distribution and apply this framework to the newly developed Revenue-enhanced Longitudinal Business Database (ReLBD). Overall, several key findings emerge: (i) the relationship between firm age and productivity growth is downward sloping and convex; (ii) the magnitudes are substantial and significant but fade quickly, with nearly 2/3 of the effect disappearing after five years and nearly the entire effect disappearing after ten; (iii) the higher productivity growth of young firms is driven nearly exclusively by the forces of selection and reallocation. Our results suggest a cumulative drag on aggregate productivity of 3.1% since 1980. Using an instrumental variables strategy we find a consistent pattern across states/MSAs in the U.S. The patterns are broadly consistent with a standard model of firm dynamics with monopolistic competition.
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Job-to-Job Flows and Earnings Growth*
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-08
The U.S. workforce has had little change in real wages, income, or earnings since the year 2000. However, even when there is little change in the average rate at which workers are compensated, individual workers experienced a distribution of wage and earnings changes. In this paper, we demonstrate how earnings evolve in the U.S. economy in the years 2001-2014 on a forthcoming dataset on earnings for stayers and transitioners from the U.S. Census Bureau's Job-to-Job Flows data product to account for the role of on-the-job earnings growth, job-to-job flows, and nonemployment in the growth of U.S. earnings.
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Abandoning the Sinking Ship: The Composition of Worker Flows Prior to Displacement
August 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-11
declines experienced by workers several years before displacement occurs. Little attention, however,
has been paid to other changes in compensation and employment in firms prior to the actual
displacement event. This paper examines changes in the composition of job and worker flows
before displacement, and compares the "quality" distribution of workers leaving distressed firms to
that of all movers in general.
More specifically, we exploit a unique dataset that contains observations on all workers over
an extended period of time in a number of US states, combined with survey data, to decompose
different jobflow statistics according to skill group and number of periods before displacement.
Furthermore, we use quantile regression techniques to analyze changes in the skill profile of workers
leaving distressed firms. Throughout the paper, our measure for worker skill is derived from
person fixed effects estimated using the wage regression techniques pioneered by Abowd, Kramarz,
and Margolis (1999) in conjunction with the standard specification for displaced worker studies
(Jacobson, LaLonde, and Sullivan 1993).
We find that there are significant changes to all measures of job and worker flows prior to
displacement. In particular, churning rates increase for all skill groups, but retention rates drop
for high-skilled workers. The quantile regressions reveal a right-shift in the distribution of worker
quality at the time of displacement as compared to average firm exit flows. In the periods prior
to displacement, the patterns are consistent with both discouraged high-skilled workers leaving the
firm, and management actions to layoff low-skilled workers.
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Multi-Product Firms and Product Switching
August 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-24
This paper examines the frequency, pervasiveness and determinants of product switching by U.S. manufacturing firms. We find that one-half of firms alter their mix of five-digit SIC products every five years, that product switching is correlated with both firm- and firm-product attributes, and that product adding and dropping induce large changes in firm scope. The behavior we observe is consistent with a natural generalization of existing theories of industry dynamics that incorporates endogenous product selection within firms. Our findings suggest that product switching contributes to a reallocation of resources within firms towards their most efficient use.
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Displaced workers, early leavers, and re-employment wages
November 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-18
In this paper, we lay out a search model that takes explicitly into account the
information flow prior to a mass layoff. Using universal wage data files that allow
us to identify individuals working with healthy and displacing firms both at
the time of displacement as well as any other time period, we test the predictions
of the model on re-employment wage differentials. Workers leaving a "distressed"
firm have higher re-employment wages than workers who stay with the
distressed firm until displacement. This result is robust to the inclusion of controls
for worker quality and unobservable firm characteristics.
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