This study investigates how household wealth affects the human capital of startups, based on U.S. Census individual-level employment data, deed records, and geographic information system (GIS) data. Using floods as a wealth shock, a regression discontinuity analysis shows inundated residents are 7% less likely to work in startups relative to their neighbors outside the flood boundary, within a 0.1-mile-wide band. The effect is more pronounced for homeowners, consistent with the wealth effect. The career distortion leads to a significant long-run income loss, highlighting the importance of self-insurance for human capital allocation.
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The Distribution and Consequences of Natural Disasters: Evidence From U.S. Wildfire Victims
August 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-53
The economic burden of natural disasters is shaped by who is exposed, who experiences losses, how those losses alter individual economic trajectories, and how affected communities evolve in the aftermath. We link property-level damage data from over 100 U.S. wildfires to administrative tax and Census data to understand individual level relationships between disaster damage and economic outcomes. Residents of burned areas are wealthier than the U.S. population on average, but within these wildfire perimeters the likelihood that a home burns is negatively correlated with pre-fire income. Home destruction imposes costs beyond rebuilding the property: occupants of destroyed homes experience lower income for three years post-fire, producing cumulative income losses equal to 26 percent of pre-fire annual income. We do not detect income or employment effects for residents without direct property damage. Community recovery is slow and accompanied by changes in composition. Four years after a fire, half of destroyed addresses remain unoccupied and reoccupied addresses house residents with substantially higher incomes than before.
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The Evolving Impact of Founders on Startup Employee Retention
March 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-21
Founders are known to attract prospective employees by signaling their startup's mission, culture, and potential. But do they also shape who stays? And if so, does the founder's influence diminish as the startup matures? Using matched employer-employee data from the U.S. Census, we address these questions, especially focusing on cases of founder premature death to identify plausibly exogenous exits. We find that founder departures significantly increase employee turnover. These effects are stronger in older and larger startups. Further analyses show that the impact of founder departure is more salient among employees who had longer shared tenure or have the same sex as the founder. These patterns suggest that employees develop complementarities with founders over time'an alignment in skills, relationships, or culture'that reinforce founders' influence as startups mature.
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Social Influence and the Consumer Bankruptcy Decision
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-60
I examine the influence of neighbors on the consumer bankruptcy decision using administrative bankruptcy records linked the 2000 Decennial Census. Two empirical strategies remove unobserved common factors that affect identification. The first strategy uses small geographical areas to isolate neighborhood effects, and the second strategy identifies the effect using past bankruptcy filers who moved states. The findings from
both strategies reinforce each other and confirm the role of social influence on the bankruptcy decision. Having a past bankruptcy filer move into the block from a different state increases the likelihood of filing by 10 percent.
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You Can Take it With You: Proposition 13 Tax Benefits, Residential Mobility, and Willingness to Pay for Housing Amenities
June 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-15
The endogeneity of prices has long been recognized as the main identification problem in the estimation of marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for the characteristics of a given product. This issue is particularly important when estimating MWTP in the housing market, since a number of housing and neighborhood features are unobserved by the econometrician. This paper proposes the use of a well defined type of transaction costs ' moving costs generated by property tax laws - to deal with this type of omitted variable bias. California's Proposition 13 property tax law is the source of variation in transaction costs used in the empirical analysis. Beyond its fiscal consequences, Proposition 13 created a lock-in effect on housing choice because of the implicit tax break enjoyed by homeowners living in the same house for a long time. First, I provide estimates of this lock-in effect using a natural experiment created by two subsequent amendments to Proposition 13 - Propositions 60 and 90. These amendments allow households headed by an individual over the age of 55 to transfer the implicit tax benefit to a new home. I show that mobility rates of 55-year old homeowners are approximately 25% higher than those of 54 year olds. Second, all these features of the tax law are then incorporated into a household sorting model. The key insight of this model is that because of the property tax law, different potential buyers have different user costs for the same house. The exogenous property tax component of this user cost then works as an instrument for prices. I find that MWTP estimates for housing characteristics are approximately 100% upward biased when the model does not account for the price endogeneity.
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After the Storm: How Emergency Liquidity Helps Small Businesses Following Natural Disasters
April 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-20
Does emergency credit prevent long-term financial distress? We study the causal effects of government-provided recovery loans to small businesses following natural disasters. The rapid financial injection might enable viable firms to survive and grow or might hobble precarious firms with more risk and interest obligations. We show that the loans reduce exit and bankruptcy, increase employment and revenue, unlock private credit, and reduce delinquency. These effects, especially the crowding-in of private credit, appear to reflect resolving uncertainty about repair. We do not find capital reallocation away from neighboring firms and see some evidence of positive spillovers on local entry.
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Status Inconsistency and Geographic Mobility in the United States
March 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-20
This study examines how neighborhood status and individual status jointly shape geographic mobility in the United States. Drawing on restricted-use American Community Survey data, we conceptualize neighborhood status as the relative standing of a census tract's median family income compared to demographically similar reference neighborhoods, and individual status as a household's relative income rank within its tract. Building on comparison theory and status inconsistency perspectives, we test whether mismatches between neighborhood and individual status influence short-distance (within-county) and long-distance (between-county) mobility. Multinomial logistic models reveal that disadvantaged neighborhood status increases within-county mobility, particularly when paired with high individual status, supporting spatial assimilation arguments. Conversely, low individual status in high-status neighborhoods heightens mobility, consistent with relative deprivation theory rather than status signaling. Results suggest that status inconsistency plays a central role in residential decision-making and that neighborhood status primarily affects short-distance mobility. The findings advance research on stratification and internal migration by integrating relative contextual and positional mechanisms.
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The Effect of Wage Insurance on Labor Supply: A Test for Income Effects
October 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-37
Studies of moral hazard in wage insurance programs such as Unemployment Insurance (UI) or Workers Compensation (WC) have demonstrated that higher benefits discourage work, emphasizing the price distortion inherent in benefit provision. Utilizing administrative data linking WC claim records to wage records from a UI payroll tax database, I find that the effect of WC benefits on the duration of benefit receipt cannot fully account for the effect of these benefits on post-injury unemployment. This indicates that a significant fraction of the effect of WC benefits on employment is due to an income effect rather than a price distortion.
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FALLING HOUSE PRICES AND LABOR MOBILITY: EVIDENCE FROM MATCHED EMPLOYER-EMPLOYEE DATA
August 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-43
This study uses worker-level employment data from the U.S. Census Bureau to test whether falling home prices affect a worker's propensity to take a job in a different metropolitan area from where he is currently located. Using a sample of workers from the American Community Survey, I employ a within-MSA-time estimation that compares homeowners to renters in their propensities to relocate for jobs according to data from the Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics database. This strategy allows me to disentangle the influence of house prices from that of other time-varying, location-specific shocks. Estimates show that homeowners who have experienced declines in the nominal value of their home are approximately 20% less likely to take a new job in a location outside of the metropolitan area that they currently live and work in, relative to an equivalent renter. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that housing lock-in has contributed to the decreased labor mobility of homeowners during the recent housing bust.
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Access to Financing and Racial Pay Gap Inside Firms
July 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-36
How does access to financing influence racial pay inequality inside firms? We answer this question using the employer-employee matched data administered by the U.S. Census Bureau and detailed resume data recording workers' career trajectories. Exploiting exogenous shocks to firms' debt capacity, we find that better access to debt financing significantly narrows the earnings gap between minority and white workers. Minority workers experience a persistent increase in earnings and also a rise in the pay rank relative to white workers in the same firm. The effect is more pronounced among mid- and high-skill minority workers, in areas where white workers are in shorter supply, and for firms with ex-ante less diverse boards and greater pre-existing racial inequality. With better access to financing, minority workers are also more likely to be promoted or be reassigned to technology-oriented occupations compared to white workers. Our evidence is consistent with access to financing making firms better utilize minority workers' human capital.
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UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION AND GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY: DO MOVERS FARE BETTER THAN STAYERS?
October 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-41
This study uses a sample of unemployed workers constructed from the American
Community Survey and the LEHD database, to compare the unemployment durations of those who find subsequent employment by relocating to a metropolitan area outside of their originally observed residence, versus those who find employment in their original location. Results from a hazard analysis confirm the importance of many of the determinants of migration posited in the literature, such as age, education, and local labor market conditions. While simple averages and OLS estimates indicate that migrating for a new job reduces the probability of re-employment within a given time frame and lengthens the spell of unemployment in the aggregate, after controlling for selection into migration using an IV approach based on local house price changes, the results suggest that out-migrating for employment actually has a large and significant beneficial effect of shortening the time to re-employment. This implies that those who migrate for jobs in the data may be particularly disadvantaged in their ability to find employment and thus have a strong short-term incentive to relocate.
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