The Effects of Low-Valued Transactions on the Quality of U.S. International Export Estimates: 1994-1998
August 2004
Working Paper Number:
CES-04-11
Abstract
This paper uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) to examine the effects that a growth of low-valued transactions likely has on the quality of export estimates provided in the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT-990) series. These transactions, valued at less than $2,500, do not legally require the filing of export declarations. As a result, they are often not captured in the administrative records data used to construct FT-990 estimates. By comparing industry-level estimates created from the ASM to related FT-990 estimates, this paper estimates that the undercounting of low-valued transactions in the FT-990 export series increases by roughly $30 billion over the period of 1994-1997. It also finds that regression analysis provides little insight into the undercounting issue as results are primarily driven by industries whose contributions to total manufacturing exports are small.
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estimation,
market,
manufacturing,
report,
commerce,
import,
export,
commodity,
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average,
good,
shipment,
export growth,
exporting,
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Standard Industrial Classification,
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Center for Economic Studies,
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Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database,
Auxiliary Establishment Survey,
Economic Census,
Board of Governors,
North American Industry Classification System
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