The Effects of Low-Valued Transactions on the Quality of U.S. International Export Estimates: 1994-1998
August 2004
Working Paper Number:
CES-04-11
Abstract
This paper uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) to examine the effects that a growth of low-valued transactions likely has on the quality of export estimates provided in the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT-990) series. These transactions, valued at less than $2,500, do not legally require the filing of export declarations. As a result, they are often not captured in the administrative records data used to construct FT-990 estimates. By comparing industry-level estimates created from the ASM to related FT-990 estimates, this paper estimates that the undercounting of low-valued transactions in the FT-990 export series increases by roughly $30 billion over the period of 1994-1997. It also finds that regression analysis provides little insight into the undercounting issue as results are primarily driven by industries whose contributions to total manufacturing exports are small.
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:
estimation,
market,
manufacturing,
report,
commerce,
import,
export,
commodity,
price,
average,
good,
shipment,
export growth,
exporting,
exporter,
wholesale,
exported,
merchandise
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:
Department of Commerce,
Annual Survey of Manufactures,
Standard Industrial Classification,
Longitudinal Research Database,
Center for Economic Studies,
Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Census Bureau Longitudinal Business Database,
Auxiliary Establishment Survey,
Economic Census,
Board of Governors,
North American Industry Classification System
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