Papers Containing Tag(s): 'White Non-Hispanic'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 11
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Working PaperOptimal Stratified Sampling for Probability-Based Online Panels
September 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-69
Online probability-based panels have emerged as a cost-efficient means of conducting surveys in the 21st century. While there have been various recent advancements in sampling techniques for online panels, several critical aspects of sampling theory for online panels are lacking. Much of current sampling theory from the middle of the 20th century, when response rates were high, and online panels did not exist. This paper presents a mathematical model of stratified sampling for online panels that takes into account historical response rates and survey costs. Through some simplifying assumptions, the model shows that the optimal sample allocation for online panels can largely resemble the solution for a cross-sectional survey. To apply the model, I use the Census Household Panel to show how this method could improve the average precision of key estimates. Holding fielding costs constant, the new sample rates improve the average precision of estimates between 1.47 and 17.25 percent, depending on the importance weight given to an overall population mean compared to mean estimates for racial and ethnic subgroups.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEducation and Mortality: Evidence for the Silent Generation from Linked Census and Administrative Data
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-56
We quantify the effect of education on mortality using a linkage of the full count 1940, 2000, and 2010 US census files and the Numident death records file. Our sample is composed of children aged 0-18 in 1940, observed living with at least one parent, for whom we can construct a rich set of parental and neighborhood characteristics. We estimate effects of educational attainment in 1940 on survival to 2000, as well as the effects of completed education, observed in 2000, on 10-year survival to 2010. The educational gradients in longevity that we estimate are robust to the inclusion of detailed individual, parental, household, neighborhood and county covariates. Given our full population census sample, we also explore rich patterns of heterogeneity and examine the effect of mediators of the education-mortality relationship. The mediators we consider in this study explain more than half of the relationship between education and mortality. We further show that the mechanisms underlying the education-mortality gradient might be different at different margins of educational attainment.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperDivorce, Family Arrangements, and Children's Adult Outcomes
May 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-28
Nearly a third of American children experience parental divorce before adulthood. To understand its consequences, we use linked tax and Census records for over 5 million children to examine how divorce affects family arrangements and children's long-term outcomes. Following divorce, parents move apart, household income falls, parents work longer hours, families move more frequently, and households relocate to poorer neighborhoods with less economic opportunity. This bundle of changes in family circumstances suggests multiple channels through which divorce may affect children's development and outcomes. In the years following divorce, we observe sharp increases in teen births and child mortality. To examine long-run effects on children, we compare siblings with different lengths of exposure to the same divorce. We find that parental divorce reduces children's adult earnings and college residence while increasing incarceration, mortality, and teen births. Changes in household income, neighborhood quality, and parent proximity account for 25 to 60 percent of these divorce effects.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperNeighborhood Revitalization and Residential Sorting
March 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-12
The HOPE VI Revitalization program sought to transform high-poverty neighborhoods into mixed-income communities through the demolition of public housing projects and the construction of new housing. We use longitudinal administrative data to investigate how the program affected both neighborhoods and individual residential outcomes. In line with the stated objectives, we find that the program reduced poverty rates in targeted neighborhoods and enabled subsidized renters to live in lower-poverty neighborhoods, on average. The primary beneficiaries were not the original neighborhood residents, most of whom moved away. Instead, subsidized renters who moved into the neighborhoods after an award experienced the largest reductions in neighborhood poverty. The program reduced the stock of public housing in targeted neighborhoods but expanded access to housing vouchers in other, lower-poverty neighborhoods. Spillover effects on the poverty rates of other neighborhoods were small and dispersed throughout the city. Our estimates imply that cities that revitalized half of their public housing stock reduced the average neighborhood poverty rate among all subsidized renters by 4.1 percentage points.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperUsing Restricted-Access ACS Data to Examine Economic and Noneconomic Factors of Interstate Migration By Race and Ethnicity
March 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-12
We explore how determinants of internal migration differ between Black non-Hispanics, White non-Hispanics, and Hispanics using micro-level, restricted-use American Community Survey (ACS) data matched to data on attributes of sub-geographies down to the county level. This paper extends the discussion of internal migration in the U.S. by not only observing relationships between economic and noneconomic factors and household-level propensities to migrate, but also how these relationships differ across race and ethnicity within smaller geographies than have been explored in previous literature. We show that when controlling for household and location characteristics, minorities have a lower propensity to migrate than White households and document nuances in the responsiveness of internal migration to individual and locational attributes by racial and ethnic population subgroups.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperRace and Mobility in U.S. Marriage Markets: Quantifying the Role of Segregation
December 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-59R
We examine racial disparities in upward intergenerational mobility of family income by linking American Community Survey respondents born in 1978-87 to their parents' tax records. This linkage facilitates better measurement of marriage-market processes than tax records alone. Relative to White individuals, we document lower upward mobility of partner income for Black, Hispanic, and Asian individuals. These disparities offset Asian women and men's advantages in personal income mobility, overturn Black women's small advantage, and compound Black men's disadvantage. We develop a novel nonparametric decomposition which reveals that these disparities are driven primarily by racial differences in marriage-market opportunities, but also by different partnering rates conditional on opportunities. We then apply a selection-correction methodology to estimate causal effects of childhood exposure to racial segregation. Our design approximates a shift in the current generation's segregation exposure, holding historical exposures constant. This channel generates substantial Black-White intergenerational mobility gaps across all income measures, and we show that these effects cumulate over a multigenerational horizon.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperU.S. Long-Term Earnings Outcomes by Sex, Race, Ethnicity, and Place of Birth
May 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-07R
This paper is part of the Global Income Dynamics Project cross-country comparison of earnings inequality, volatility, and mobility. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure files we produce a uniform set of earnings statistics for the U.S. From 1998 to 2019, we find U.S. earnings inequality has increased and volatility has decreased. The combination of increased inequality and reduced volatility suggest earnings growth differs substantially across different demographic groups. We explore this further by estimating 12-year average earnings for a single cohort of age 25-54 eligible workers. Differences in labor supply (hours paid and quarters worked) are found to explain almost 90% of the variation in worker earnings, although even after controlling for labor supply substantial earnings differences across demographic groups remain unexplained. Using a quantile regression approach, we estimate counterfactual earnings distributions for each demographic group. We find that at the bottom of the earnings distribution differences in characteristics such as hours paid, geographic division, industry, and education explain almost all the earnings gap, however above the median the contribution of the differences in the returns to characteristics becomes the dominant component.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperTrends in Earnings Volatility using Linked Administrative and Survey Data
August 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-24
We document trends in earnings volatility separately by gender in combination with other characteristics such as race, educational attainment, and employment status using unique linked survey and administrative data for the tax years spanning 1995-2015. We also decompose the variance of trend volatility into within- and between-group contributions, as well as transitory and permanent shocks. Our results for continuously working men suggest that trend earnings volatility was stable over our period in both survey and tax data, though with a substantial countercyclical business-cycle component. Trend earnings volatility among women declined over the period in both survey and administrative data, but unlike for men, there was no change over the Great Recession. The variance decompositions indicate that nonresponders, low-educated, racial minorities, and part-year workers have the greatest group specific earnings volatility, but with the exception of part-year workers, they contribute least to the level and trend of volatility owing to their small share of the population. There is evidence of stable transitory volatility, but rising permanent volatility over the past two decades in male and female earnings.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperUrban-Suburban Migration in the United States, 1955-2000
February 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-08
This study uses census microdata from 1960 to 2010 to look at the rates of suburbanization in the 100 largest metro areas. Looking at the racial and ethnic composition of the population, and then further breaking down these groups by income, it's clear that more affluent people were more likely to move to the suburbs. Also, the White non-Hispanic population has long been the most suburbanized group. A majority of the White population lived in suburbs by 1960 in the 100 largest metro areas, while most of the Black non-Hispanic population lived in urban core areas as late as 2000. The Hispanic and Asian populations went from majority urban to majority suburban during this period.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperChildhood Housing and Adult Earnings: A Between-Siblings Analysis of Housing Vouchers and Public Housing
January 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-48RR
To date, research on the long-term effects of childhood participation in voucher-assisted and public housing has been limited by the lack of data and suitable identification strategies. We create a national level longitudinal data set that enables us to analyze how children's housing experiences affect adult earnings and incarceration rates. While naive estimates suggest there are substantial negative consequences to childhood participation in voucher assisted and public housing, this result appears to be driven largely by selection of households into housing assistance programs. To mitigate this source of bias, we employ household fixed-effects specifications that use only within-household (across-sibling) variation for identification. Compared to naive specifications, household fixed-effects estimates for earnings are universally more positive, and they suggest that there are positive and statistically significant benefits from childhood residence in assisted housing on young adult earnings for nearly all demographic groups. Childhood participation in assisted housing also reduces the likelihood of incarceration across all household race/ethnicity groups. Time spent in voucher-assisted or public housing is especially beneficial for females from non-Hispanic Black households, who experience substantial increases in expected earnings and lower incarceration rates.View Full Paper PDF
