Local Labor Demand and Program Participation Dynamics
November 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-10
Abstract
Estimates the effect of fluctuations in local labor conditions on the likelihood that existing participants are able to transition out of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Our primary data are SNAP administrative records from New York (2007-2012) linked to the 2010 Census at the person-level. We further augment these data by linking to industry-specific labor market indicators at the county-level. We find that local labor markets matter for the length of time individuals spend on SNAP, but there is substantial heterogeneity in estimated effects across local industries. While employment growth in industries with small shares of SNAP participants has no impact on SNAP exits, growth in local industries with creases the likelihood that recipients exit the program. We also observe corresponding increases in entries when these industries experience localized contractions. Notably, estimated industry effects vary across race groups and parental status, with Black Alone non-Hispanic, Hispanic, and mothers benefiting the least from improvements in local labor market conditions.
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:
demand,
endogeneity,
census data,
survey,
labor,
recession,
state,
immigrant,
metropolitan,
rural,
welfare,
enrollment,
labor statistics,
relocation,
poverty,
employment statistics,
resident,
medicaid,
census employment,
2010 census,
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employment trends
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Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Ordinary Least Squares,
Administrative Records,
Department of Agriculture,
Survey of Income and Program Participation,
Social Security,
Economic Research Service,
American Community Survey,
Social Security Number,
PSID,
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Medicaid Services,
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families,
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages,
2010 Census,
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
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