Estimating Unequal Gains across U.S. Consumers with Supplier Trade Data
January 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-04
Abstract
Using supplier-level trade data, we estimate the effect on consumer welfare from changes in U.S. imports both in the aggregate and for different household income groups from 1998 to 2014. To do this, we use consumer preferences which feature non-homotheticity both within sectors and across sectors. After structurally estimating the parameters of the model, using the universe of U.S. goods imports, we construct import price indexes in which a variety is defined as a foreign establishment producing an HS10 product that is exported to the United States. We find that lower income households experienced the most import price inflation, while higher income households experienced the least import price inflation during our time period. Thus, we do not find evidence that the consumption channel has mitigated the distributional effects of trade that have occurred through the nominal income channel in the United States over the past two decades.
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demand,
macroeconomic,
sale,
substitute,
import,
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international trade,
commodity,
monopolistic,
price,
good,
monopolistically,
sector,
exporter,
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Ordinary Least Squares,
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Federal Reserve System,
Generalized Method of Moments,
Board of Governors,
North American Industry Classification System,
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University of Michigan,
Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database,
Customs and Border Protection,
Michigan Institute for Data Science
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