Establishment-Level Life Cycle and Analysts' Forecasts
February 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-12
Abstract
This paper examines how multi-unit firms' life-cycle stages affect analyst forecast accuracy. While prior studies focus on the firm-level life cycle, we utilize the Census data and focus on the establishment level. We find that analyst forecast accuracy is lower for multi-unit firms whose establishments are in different life-cycle stages than those in the same life-cycle stage. This finding suggests that the forecasting difficulty of more diversified firms can be attributed to the different life-cycle stages of each establishment. We also find that for firms whose units are in different stages, analyst forecast accuracy is lower if the establishments in earlier stages are larger (i.e., generate more revenue) than those in later stages. As a comparison, we estimate the life-cycle stages using firms' segment classifications in their 10-K filings. We find that analysts' forecast accuracy is lower when firms report fewer segments than the number of establishments, suggesting that aggregating more establishments for segment reporting could complicate analysts' forecasting. To our knowledge, this is the first study that focuses on the establishment-level life cycle. This study highlights that firm-level life cycles should not be taken without caution, as aggregating multiple units' life cycles may be misleading. In order to provide better forecasts to investors, analysts should have a deeper understanding of firms' subunits, especially when the establishments are in different life-cycle stages.
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:
profitability,
estimation,
market,
econometric,
macroeconomic,
estimating,
aggregation,
sale,
analyst,
earnings,
corporate,
finance,
sector,
forecast,
diversification,
diversified,
oligopolistic,
strategic,
equity
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:
Census of Manufactures,
Annual Survey of Manufactures,
Standard Industrial Classification,
Ordinary Least Squares,
Securities and Exchange Commission,
Establishment Micro Properties,
Journal of Political Economy,
Longitudinal Business Database,
Center for Research in Security Prices,
Census of Manufacturing Firms,
Economic Census,
North American Industry Classification System,
ASEC,
Federal Statistical Research Data Center
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