High Frequency Business Dynamics in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic
March 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-06
Abstract
Existing small businesses experienced very sharp declines in activity, business sentiment, and expectations early in the pandemic. While there has been some recovery since the early days of the pandemic, small businesses continued to exhibit indicators of negative growth, business sentiment, and expectations through the first week of January 2021. These findings are from a unique high frequency, real time survey of small employer businesses, the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey (SBPS). Findings from the SBPS show substantial variation across sectors in the outcomes for small businesses. Small businesses in Accommodation and Food Services have been hit especially hard relative to those Finance and Insurance. However, even in Finance and Insurance small businesses exhibit indicators of negative growth, business sentiment, and expectations for all weeks from late April 2020 through the first week of 2021. While existing small businesses have fared poorly, after an initial decline, there has been a surge in new business applications based on the high frequency, real time Business Formation Statistics (BFS). Most of these applications are for likely nonemployers that are out of scope for the SBPS. However, there has also been a surge in new applications for likely employers. The surge in applications has been especially apparent in Retail Trade (and especially Non-store Retailers). We compare and contrast the patterns from these two new high frequency data products that provide novel insights into the distinct patterns of dynamics for existing small businesses relative to new business formations.
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:
company,
sale,
quarterly,
enterprise,
commerce,
corporation,
entrepreneur,
business startups,
startup,
sector,
proprietor,
small firms,
small businesses,
recession,
retailer,
restaurant,
customer,
retail,
marketing,
grocery
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identified to contain references to specific institutions, datasets, and other organizations.
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Small Business Administration,
Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Metropolitan Statistical Area,
Internal Revenue Service,
County Business Patterns,
Employer Identification Number,
IQR,
Retail Trade,
National Employer Survey,
Economic Census,
Educational Services,
Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics,
Paycheck Protection Program,
Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board,
Business Dynamics Statistics,
Arts, Entertainment,
Accommodation and Food Services,
Health Care and Social Assistance,
Federal Statistical Research Data Center,
Business Formation Statistics,
COVID-19
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