Careers of Minimum Wage Workers
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-07
Abstract
We characterize the careers of minimum wage workers by merging SIPP panels covering 1992-2016 into the LEHD. A long-run analysis shows strong earnings growth for these workers in subsequent decades, becoming indistinguishable from peers earning modestly more initially. Most of this growth is due to the steep earnings trajectories of young workers. Older workers earning minimum wages show a modest dip in earnings at that moment compared to earlier and later periods. Increases in state minimum wages do not significantly alter the future careers of workers who are on the minimum wage when the increases occur.
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:
earnings,
employed,
labor,
job,
retirement,
workforce,
wages employment,
salary,
wage growth,
poverty,
prospect,
earn,
earner,
unemployed,
poorer,
earnings age,
career,
earns,
advancement,
earnings mobility
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National Longitudinal Survey of Youth,
Current Population Survey,
Survey of Income and Program Participation,
Research Data Center,
Alfred P Sloan Foundation,
Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics,
Russell Sage Foundation,
Special Sworn Status,
Census Bureau Disclosure Review Board,
Integrated Longitudinal Business Database,
Harvard Business School
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