The importance of correctly accounting for complex sampling features when generating finite population inferences based on complex sample survey data sets has now been clearly established in a variety of fields, including those in both statistical and non statistical domains. Unfortunately, recent studies of analytic error have suggested that many secondary analysts of survey data do not ultimately account for these sampling features when analyzing their data, for a variety of possible reasons (e.g., poor documentation, or a data producer may not provide the information in a publicuse data set). The research in this area has focused exclusively on analyses of household survey data, and individual respondents. No research to date has considered how analysts are approaching the data collected in establishment surveys, and whether published articles advancing science based on analyses of establishment behaviors and outcomes are correctly accounting for complex sampling features. This article presents alternative analyses of real data from the 2013 Business Research and Development and Innovation Survey (BRDIS), and shows that a failure to account for the complex design features of the sample underlying these data can lead to substantial differences in inferences about the target population of establishments for the BRDIS.
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Grassroots Design Meets Grassroots Innovation: Rural Design Orientation and Firm Performance
March 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-17
The study of grassroots design'applying structured, creative processes to the usability or aesthetics of a product without input from professional design consultancies'remains under investigated. If design comprises a mediation between people and technology whereby technologies are made more accessible or more likely to delight, then the process by which new grassroots inventions are transformed into innovations valued in markets cannot be fully understood. This paper uses U.S. data on the design orientation of respondents in the 2014 Rural Establishment Innovation Survey linked to longitudinal data on the same firms to examine the association between design, innovation, and employment and payroll growth. Findings from the research will inform questions to be investigated in the recently collected 2022 Annual Business Survey (ABS) that for the first time contains a Design module.
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R&D, Attrition and Multiple Imputation in BRDIS
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-13
Multiple imputation in business establishment surveys like BRDIS, an annual business survey in which some companies are sampled every year or multiple years, may enhance the estimates of total R&D in addition to helping researchers estimate models with subpopulations of small sample size. Considering a panel of BRDIS companies throughout the years 2008 to 2013 linked to LBD data, this paper uses the conclusions obtained with missing data visualization and other explorations to come up with a strategy to conduct multiple imputation appropriate to address the item nonresponse in R&D expenditures. Because survey design characteristics are behind much of the item and unit nonresponse, multiple imputation of missing data in BRDIS changes the estimates of total R&D significantly and alters the conclusions reached by models of the determinants of R&D investment obtained with complete case analysis.
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SYNTHETIC DATA FOR SMALL AREA ESTIMATION IN THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY
April 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-19
Small area estimates provide a critical source of information used to study local populations. Statistical agencies regularly collect data from small areas but are prevented from releasing detailed geographical identifiers in public-use data sets due to disclosure concerns. Alternative data dissemination methods used in practice include releasing summary/aggregate tables, suppressing detailed geographic information in public-use data sets, and accessing restricted data via Research Data Centers. This research examines an alternative method for disseminating microdata that contains more geographical details than are currently being released in public-use data files. Specifically, the method replaces the observed survey values with imputed, or synthetic, values simulated from a hierarchical Bayesian model. Confidentiality protection is enhanced because no actual values are released. The method is demonstrated using restricted data from the 2005-2009 American Community Survey. The analytic validity of the synthetic data is assessed by comparing small area estimates obtained from the synthetic data with those obtained from the observed data.
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An In-Depth Examination of Requirements for Disclosure Risk Assessment
October 2023
Authors:
Ron Jarmin,
John M. Abowd,
Ian M. Schmutte,
Jerome P. Reiter,
Nathan Goldschlag,
Victoria A. Velkoff,
Michael B. Hawes,
Robert Ashmead,
Ryan Cumings-Menon,
Sallie Ann Keller,
Daniel Kifer,
Philip Leclerc,
Rolando A. RodrÃguez,
Pavel Zhuravlev
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-49
The use of formal privacy to protect the confidentiality of responses in the 2020 Decennial Census of Population and Housing has triggered renewed interest and debate over how to measure the disclosure risks and societal benefits of the published data products. Following long-established precedent in economics and statistics, we argue that any proposal for quantifying disclosure risk should be based on pre-specified, objective criteria. Such criteria should be used to compare methodologies to identify those with the most desirable properties. We illustrate this approach, using simple desiderata, to evaluate the absolute disclosure risk framework, the counterfactual framework underlying differential privacy, and prior-to-posterior comparisons. We conclude that satisfying all the desiderata is impossible, but counterfactual comparisons satisfy the most while absolute disclosure risk satisfies the fewest. Furthermore, we explain that many of the criticisms levied against differential privacy would be levied against any technology that is not equivalent to direct, unrestricted access to confidential data. Thus, more research is needed, but in the near-term, the counterfactual approach appears best-suited for privacy-utility analysis.
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An Economist's Primer on Survey Samples
September 2000
Working Paper Number:
CES-00-15
Survey data underlie most empirical work in economics, yet economists typically have little familiarity with survey sample design and its effects on inference. This paper describes how sample designs depart from the simple random sampling model implicit in most econometrics textbooks, points out where the effects of this departure are likely to be greatest, and describes the relationship between design-based estimators developed by survey statisticians and related econometric methods for regression. Its intent is to provide empirical economists with enough background in survey methods to make informed use of design-based estimators. It emphasizes surveys of households (the source of most public-use files), but also considers how surveys of businesses differ. Examples from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth of 1979 and the Current Population Survey illustrate practical aspects of design-based estimation.
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Why the Economics Profession Must Actively Participate in the Privacy Protection Debate
March 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-09
When Google or the U.S. Census Bureau publish detailed statistics on browsing habits or neighborhood characteristics, some privacy is lost for everybody while supplying public information. To date, economists have not focused on the privacy loss inherent in data publication. In their stead, these issues have been advanced almost exclusively by computer scientists who are primarily interested in technical problems associated with protecting privacy. Economists should join the discussion, first, to determine where to balance privacy protection against data quality; a social choice problem. Furthermore, economists must ensure new privacy models preserve the validity of public data for economic research.
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Gradient Boosting to Address Statistical Problems Arising from Non-Linkage of Census Bureau Datasets
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-27
This article introduces the twangRDC package, which contains functions to address non-linkage in US Census Bureau datasets. The Census Bureau's Person Identification Validation System facilitates data linkage by assigning unique person identifiers to federal, third party, decennial census, and survey data. Not all records in these datasets can be linked to the reference file and as such not all records will be assigned an identifier. This article is a tutorial for using the twangRDC to generate nonresponse weights to account for non-linkage of person records across US Census Bureau datasets.
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An Examination of the Informational Value of Self-Reported Innovation Questions
October 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-46
Self-reported innovation measures provide an alternative means for examining the economic performance of firms or regions. While European researchers have been exploiting the data from the Community Innovation Survey for over two decades, uptake of US innovation data has been much slower. This paper uses a restricted innovation survey designed to differentiate incremental innovators from more far-ranging innovators and compares it to responses in the Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs (ASE) and the Business R&D and Innovation Survey (BRDIS) to examine the informational value of these positive innovation measures. The analysis begins by examining the association between the incremental innovation measure in the Rural Establishment Innovation Survey (REIS) and a measure of the inter-industry buying and selling complexity. A parallel analysis using BRDIS and ASE reveals such an association may vary among surveys, providing additional insight on the informational value of various innovation profiles available in self-reported innovation surveys.
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Effects of a Government-Academic Partnership: Has the NSF-Census Bureau Research Network Helped Improve the U.S. Statistical System?
January 2017
Authors:
Lars Vilhuber,
John M. Abowd,
Daniel Weinberg,
Jerome P. Reiter,
Matthew D. Shapiro,
Robert F. Belli,
Noel Cressie,
David C. Folch,
Scott H. Holan,
Margaret C. Levenstein,
Kristen M. Olson,
Jolene Smyth,
Leen-Kiat Soh,
Bruce D. Spencer,
Seth E. Spielman,
Christopher K. Wikle
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-59R
The National Science Foundation-Census Bureau Research Network (NCRN) was established in 2011 to create interdisciplinary research nodes on methodological questions of interest and significance to the broader research community and to the Federal Statistical System (FSS), particularly the Census Bureau. The activities to date have covered both fundamental and applied statistical research and have focused at least in part on the training of current and future generations of researchers in skills of relevance to surveys and alternative measurement of economic units, households, and persons. This paper discusses some of the key research findings of the eight nodes, organized into six topics: (1) Improving census and survey data collection methods; (2) Using alternative sources of data; (3) Protecting privacy and confidentiality by improving disclosure avoidance; (4) Using spatial and spatio-temporal statistical modeling to improve estimates; (5) Assessing data cost and quality tradeoffs; and (6) Combining information from multiple sources. It also reports on collaborations across nodes and with federal agencies, new software developed, and educational activities and outcomes. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the ability of the FSS to apply the NCRN's research outcomes and suggests some next steps, as well as the implications of this research-network model for future federal government renewal initiatives.
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Investigating the Effect of Innovation Activities of Firms on Innovation Performance: Does Firm Size Matter?
January 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-04
Understanding the relationship between a firm's innovation activities and its performance has been of great interest to management scholars. While the literature on innovation activities is vast, there is a dearth of studies investigating the effect of key innovation activities of the firm on innovation outcomes in a single study, and whether their effects are dependent on the nature of firms, specifically firm size. Drawing from a longitudinal dataset from the Business Research & Development and Innovation Survey (BRDIS), and informed by contingency theory and resource orchestration theory, we examine the relationship between a firm's innovation activities - including its Research & Development (R&D) investment, securing patents, collaborative R&D, R&D toward new business areas, and grants for R&D - and its product innovation and process innovation. We also investigate whether these relationships are contingent on firm size. Consistent with contingency theory, we find a significant difference between large firms and small firms regarding how they enhance product innovation and process innovation. Large firms can improve product innovation by securing patents through applications and issuances, coupled with active participation in collaborative R&D efforts. Conversely, smaller firms concentrate their efforts on the number of patents applied for, directing R&D efforts toward new business areas, and often leveraging grants for R&D efforts. To achieve process innovation, a similar dichotomy emerges. Larger firms demonstrate a commitment to securing patents, engage in R&D efforts tailored to new business areas, and actively collaborate with external entities on R&D efforts. In contrast, smaller firms primarily focus on securing patents and channel their R&D efforts toward new business pursuits. This nuanced exploration highlights the varied strategies employed by large and small firms in navigating the intricate landscape of both product and process innovation. The results shed light on specific innovation activities as antecedents of innovation outcomes and demonstrate how the effectiveness of such assets is contingent upon firm size.
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