This paper uses matched employer-employee data from the U.S. Census Bureau to investigate the contribution of worker and firm reallocation to changes in wage inequality within and across industries between 1992 and 2003. We find that the entry and exit of firms and the sorting of workers and firms based on underlying worker skills are important sources of changes in earnings distributions over time. Our results suggest that the underlying dynamics driving changes in earnings inequality are complex and are due to factors that cannot be measured in standard cross-sectional data.
-
The Measurement of Human Capital in the U.S. Economy
April 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-09
We develop a new approach to measuring human capital that permits the distinction of both observable
and unobservable dimensions of skill by associating human capital with the portable part
of an individual's wage rate. Using new large-scale, integrated employer-employee data containing
information on 68 million individuals and 3.6 million firms, we explain a very large proportion
(84%) of the total variation in wages rates and attribute substantial variation to both individual
and employer heterogeneity. While the wage distribution remained largely unchanged between
1992-1997, we document a pronounced right shift in the overall distribution of human capital.
Most workers entering our sample, while less experienced, were otherwise more highly skilled, a
difference which can be attributed almost exclusively to unobservables. Nevertheless, compared
to exiters and continuers, entrants exhibited a greater tendency to match to firms paying below
average internal wages. Firms reduced employment shares of low skilled workers and increased
employment shares of high skilled workers in virtually every industry. Our results strongly suggest
that the distribution of human capital will continue to shift to the right, implying a continuing
up-skilling of the employed labor force.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
The Dynamics of Worker Reallocation Within and Across Industries
June 2005
Working Paper Number:
tp-2005-02
This paper uses an integrated employer-employee data set to answer two key questions:
1. What is the "equilibrium" amount of worker reallocation in the economy - both within and across industries?
2. How much does firm-level job reallocation affect the separation probabilities of workers?
Consistent with other work, we find that there is a great deal of reallocation in the economy,
although this varies substantially across demographic group. Much worker reallocation is
within the economy, roughly evenly split between within and across broadly defined
industries. An important new finding is that much of this reallocation is confined to a
relatively small subset of workers that is shuffled across jobs - both within and across
industries - in the economy. However, we also find that even for the most stable group of
workers, firm level job reallocation substantially increases the probability of transition for
even the most stable group of workers. Finally, workers who are employed in industries that
provide low returns to tenure are much more likely to reallocate both within and across
industries.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Between Firm Changes in Earnings Inequality: The Dominant Role of Industry Effects
February 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-08
We find that most of the rising between firm earnings inequality that dominates the overall increase in inequality in the U.S. is accounted for by industry effects. These industry effects stem from rising inter-industry earnings differentials and not from changing distribution of employment across industries. We also find the rising inter-industry earnings differentials are almost completely accounted for by occupation effects. These results link together the key findings from separate components of the recent literature: one focuses on firm effects and the other on occupation effects. The link via industry effects challenges conventional wisdom.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
The Relation among Human Capital, Productivity and Market Value: Building Up from Micro Evidence
December 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-14
This paper investigates and evaluates the direct and indirect contribution of human capital
to business productivity and shareholder value. The impact of human capital may occur in two ways:
the specific knowledge of workers at businesses may directly increase business
performance, or a skilled workforce may also indirectly act as a complement to improved
technologies, business models or organizational practices. We use newly created firm-level
measures of workforce human capital and productivity to examine links between those measures
and the market value of the employing firm. The new human capital measures come from an
integrated employer-employee data base under development at the US Census Bureau. We link
these data to financial information from Compustat at the firm level, which provides measures of
market value and tangible assets. The combination of these two sources permits examination of
the link between human capital, productivity, and market value. There is a substantial positive
relation between human capital and market value that is primarily related to the unmeasured
personal characteristics of the employees, which are captured by the new measures.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Understanding Earnings Instability: How Important are Employment Fluctuations and Job Changes?
August 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-20
Using three panel datasets (the matched CPS, the SIPP, and the newly available Longitudinal Employment and Household Dynamics (LEHD) data), we examine trends in male earnings instability in recent decades. In contrast to several papers that find a recent upward trend in earnings instability using the PSID data, we find that earnings instability has been remarkably stable in the 1990s and the 2000s. We find that job changing rates remained relatively constant casting doubt on the importance of labor market 'churning.' We find some evidence that earnings instability increased among job stayers which lends credence to the view that greater reliance on incentive pay increased instability of worker pay. We also find an offsetting decrease in earnings instability among job changers due largely to declining unemployment associated with job changes. One caveat to our findings is that we focus on men who have positive earnings in two adjacent years and thus ignore men who exit the labor force or re-enter after an extended period. Preliminary investigation suggests that ignoring these transitions understates the rise in earnings instability over the past two decades.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
The interactions of workers and firms in the low-wage labor market
August 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-12
This paper presents an analysis of workers who persistently have low earnings in
the labor market over a period of three or more years. Some of these workers manage to
escape from this low-earning status over subsequent years, while many do not. Using
data from the Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD) project at the U.S.
Census Bureau, we analyze the characteristics of persons and especially of their firms and
jobs that enable some to improve their earnings status over time.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
U.S. Long-Term Earnings Outcomes by Sex, Race, Ethnicity, and Place of Birth
May 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-07R
This paper is part of the Global Income Dynamics Project cross-country comparison of earnings inequality, volatility, and mobility. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure files we produce a uniform set of earnings statistics for the U.S. From 1998 to 2019, we find U.S. earnings inequality has increased and volatility has decreased. The combination of increased inequality and reduced volatility suggest earnings growth differs substantially across different demographic groups. We explore this further by estimating 12-year average earnings for a single cohort of age 25-54 eligible workers. Differences in labor supply (hours paid and quarters worked) are found to explain almost 90% of the variation in worker earnings, although even after controlling for labor supply substantial earnings differences across demographic groups remain unexplained. Using a quantile regression approach, we estimate counterfactual earnings distributions for each demographic group. We find that at the bottom of the earnings distribution differences in characteristics such as hours paid, geographic division, industry, and education explain almost all the earnings gap, however above the median the contribution of the differences in the returns to characteristics becomes the dominant component.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Job-to-Job Flows and the Business Cycle
March 2012
Working Paper Number:
CES-12-04
Job-to-job flows represent one of the most significant opportunities for the development of new economic statistics, having been made possible by the increased availability of matched employer-employee datasets for statistical tabulation. In this paper, we analyze a new database of job-to-job flows from 1999 to 2010 in the United States. This analysis provides definitive benchmarks on gross employment flows, origin and destination industries, nonemployment, and associated earnings. To demonstrate the usefulness of these statistics, we evaluate them in the context of the recessions of 2001 and 2007, as well as the economic expansion between the two. We find a sharp drop in job mobility in the Great Recession, much sharper than the previous recession, and higher earnings penalties for job transitions with an intervening nonemployment spell. This fall in job mobility is found within all age groups but is largest among younger workers. We also examine outcomes for displaced workers and examine labor market adjustment in several specific industries. Generally, we find higher rates of nonemployment upon job separation, increasing rates of industry change and higher earnings penalties from job change in the Great Recession.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Changes in Workplace Segregation in the United States Between 1990 and 2000: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data
June 2007
Working Paper Number:
CES-07-15
We present evidence on changes in workplace segregation by education, race, ethnicity, and sex, from 1990 to 2000. The evidence indicates that racial and ethnic segregation at the workplace level remained quite pervasive in 2000. At the same time, there was fairly substantial segregation by skill, as measured by education. Putting together the 1990 and 2000 data, we find no evidence of declines in workplace segregation by race and ethnicity; indeed, black-white segregation increased. Over this decade, segregation by education also increased. In contrast, workplace segregation by sex fell over the decade, and would have fallen by more had the services industry - a heavily female industry in which sex segregation is relatively high - not experienced rapid employment growth.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Is the Gender Pay Gap Largest at the Top?
December 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-61
No: it is at least as large at bottom percentiles of the earnings distribution. Conditional quantile regressions reveal that while the gap at top percentiles is largest among the most-educated, the gap at bottom percentiles is largest among the least-educated. Gender differences in labor supply create more pay inequality among the least-educated than they do among the most-educated. The pay gap has declined throughout the distribution since 2006, but it declined more for the most-educated women. Current economics-of-gender research focuses heavily on the top end; equal emphasis should be placed on mechanisms driving gender inequality for noncollege-educated workers.
View Full
Paper PDF