The role of education and human capital externalities is a key variable in theories of economic growth. However, the mechanism by which these externalities are realized has not been fully investigated. We examine the relationship between area differences in the levels of human capital and subsequent differences in new firm start-up rates. Firm start-ups are usually based on an innovation (in product, process, or market) that derives from utilization of new knowledge. We find that the new firm start-up rates in areas that function as integrated labor and consumer markets (city plus surrounding commuter area) are (1) positively related to the share of adults with college degrees, and also (2) positively related to higher levels of existing establishments in the same industry and area sector. The finding that higher concentrations of existing establishments in the same industry segment were strongly associated with higher startup rates suggests that spillover of relevant knowledge from other local business owners/managers and researchers within each industry contributes to greater innovation and growth in the area.
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Endogenous Growth and Entrepreneurial Activity in Cities
January 2003
Working Paper Number:
CES-03-02
Recent theories of economic growth have stressed the role of externalities in generating growth. Using data from the Census Bureau that tracks all employers in the whole U.S. private sector economy, we examine the impact of these externalities, as measured by entrepreneurial activity, on employment growth in Local Market Areas. We find that differences in levels of entrepreneurial activity, diversity among geographically proximate industries, and the extent of human capital are positively associated with variation in growth rates, but the manufacturing sector appears to be an exception.
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Differences in Job Growth and Persistence in Services and Manufacturing
March 2000
Working Paper Number:
CES-00-04
Employment flows in services have greatly exceeded those in manufacturing over the recent decade. We examine these differences and their variation over establishment sizes and types. We test three hypotheses which have been offered to explain these differences: (1) that the difference in behavior of single and multi-unit establishments accounts for much of the difference in the net and gross growth rates of jobs in services and manufacturing; (2) that relative wage differences have a disparate effect on employment growth for services and manufacturing, and (3) that the rates of persistence (or retention) of new jobs are higher in multi-unit establishments than in single unit firms, and similar between the sectors after controlling for this. We find that it is primarily the underlying differences in establishment age and size distributions that account for the substantial differences in the average gross and net job flow rates of the two sectors, and that relative wage differences have a similar effect on employment growth in services and manufacturing.
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Job Flow Dynamics in the Service Sector
November 1999
Working Paper Number:
CES-99-14
This paper uses the new comprehensive Longitudinal Establishment and Enterprise Microdata at CES to investigate gross and net job flows for 1990 to 1995 for all establishments in the service sector. After examining the recent shifts in the distribution of employment in non-financial services, from single unit firms to multi-unit firms, and from smaller firms to larger ones, we calculate five year gross and net job flow rates for these various types of establishments. This shows that the increasing share of service employment in large firms is not due to higher growth in larger firms. Seeking the dynamics behind the shift of employment to larger firms, we investigate how job flow rates are related to firm and establishment size, using alternative size classification methods. Gross job flow rates vary inversely with the age of establishments in services, as do net growth rates of surviving establishments, even after controlling for size. To help distinguish among the effects of age, firm size, and establishment size on gross and net job flows in services, multivariate regression analysis is used. We find that all gross job flow rates decline with increasing age of establishments when size and industry differences are controlled. Because the job destruction rate falls faster than the creation rate as age increases, net growth rates increase with age for services as a whole. Gross and net job creation also declines with increasing size of establishments, but destruction rates increase with size when controlling for age and industry differences. Firm size differences contribute little or nothing additional when we control for establishment size and age.
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Clusters and Entrepreneurship
September 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-31
This paper examines the role of regional clusters in regional entrepreneurship. We focus on the distinct influences of convergence and agglomeration on growth in the number of start-up firms as well as in employment in these new firms in a given region-industry. While reversion to the mean and diminishing returns to entrepreneurship at the region-industry level can result in a convergence effect, the presence of complementary economic activity creates externalities that enhance incentives and reduce barriers for new business creation. Clusters are a particularly important way through which location-based complementarities are realized. The empirical analysis uses a novel panel dataset from the Longitudinal Business Database of the Census Bureau and the U.S. Cluster Mapping Project (Porter, 2003). Using this dataset, there is significant evidence of the positive impact of clusters on entrepreneurship. After controlling for convergence in start-up activity at the region-industry level, industries located in regions with strong clusters (i.e. a large presence of other related industries) experience higher growth in new business formation and start-up employment. Strong clusters are also associated with the formation of new establishments of existing firms, thus influencing the location decision of multiestablishment firms. Finally, strong clusters contribute to start-up firm survival.
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MEASURES OF JOB FLOW DYNAMICS IN THE U.S.*
January 1999
Working Paper Number:
CES-99-01
This paper uses the new Longitudinal Establishment and Enterprise Microdata (LEEM) at CES to investigate gross and net job flows for the U. S. economy. Much of the previous work on U.S. job flows has been based on analysis of the Longitudinal Research Database (LRD), which is limited to establishments in the manufacturing sector. The LEEM is the first high-quality, nationwide, comprehensive database for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing that is suitable for measuring annual job flows. We utilize the LEEM data to measure recent gross and net job flows for the entire U. S. economy. We then examine the relationships between firm size, establishment size, and establishment age, and investigate differences resulting from use of two alternative methods for classification of job flows by size of firm and establishment. Cell-based regression analysis is used to help distinguish among the effects of age, firm size, and establishment size on gross and net job flows in existing establishments. We find that gross job flow rates decline with age, and with increasing establishment size when controlling for age differences, whether initial size or mean size classification is utilized. Firm size differences contribute little or nothing additional when establishment size and age are controlled for. However, the relationship of net job growth to business size is very sensitive to the size classification method, even when data and all other methodology are identical. When mean size classification is used, the coefficient on establishment size for net job growth is generally positive, but when initial size is used, this coefficient is negative. These results shed light on some of the apparently conflicting findings in the literature on the relationship between net growth and the size of businesses.
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Past Experience and Future Success: New Evidence on Owner Characteristics and Firm Performance
September 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-24
Because the ability of entrepreneurs to start their own businesses is key to the success of the U.S. economy and to the economic mobility of many disadvantaged demographic groups, understanding why entrepreneurship activity varies across groups and geography is an increasingly important issue. As a step in this direction we employ a novel set of metrics of business success to the growing literature and find great variation across groups and metrics. For example, we find that black-owned firms grow slower than white or Asian-owned firms. However, once we condition on firm survival, the differences disappear. Interestingly, we also find differences across groups in their start-up histories. For example, Asian-owned firms are less likely than white-owned firms to have started-out as nonemployers but firms owned by all other minority groups, as well as women-owned firms, are more likely to start-out without employees.
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Reservation Nonemployer and Employer Establishments: Data from U.S. Census Longitudinal Business Databases
December 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-50
The presence of businesses on American Indian reservations has been difficult to analyze due to limited data. Akee, Mykerezi, and Todd (AMT; 2017) geocoded confidential data from the U.S. Census Longitudinal Business Database to identify whether employer establishments were located on or off American Indian reservations and then compared federally recognized reservations and nearby county areas with respect to their per capita number of employers and jobs. We use their methods and the U.S. Census Integrated Longitudinal Business Database to develop parallel results for nonemployer establishments and for the combination of employer and nonemployer establishments. Similar to AMT's findings, we find that reservations and nearby county areas have a similar sectoral distribution of nonemployer and nonemployer-plus-employer establishments, but reservations have significantly fewer of them in nearly all sectors, especially when the area population is below 15,000. By contrast to AMT, the average size of reservation nonemployer establishments, as measured by revenue (instead of the jobs measure AMT used for employers), is smaller than the size of nonemployers in nearby county areas, and this is true in most industries as well. The most significant exception is in the retail sector. Geographic and demographic factors, such as population density and per capita income, statistically account for only a small portion of these differences. However, when we assume that nonemployer establishments create the equivalent of one job and use combined employer-plus-nonemployer jobs to measure establishment size, the employer job numbers dominate and we parallel AMT's finding that, due to large job counts in the Arts/Entertainment/Recreation and Public Administration sectors, reservations on average have slightly more jobs per resident than nearby county areas.
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Reservation Employer Establishments: Data from the U.S. Census Longitudinal Business Database
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-57
The presence of employers and jobs on American Indian reservations has been difficult to analyze due to limited data. We are the first to geocode confidential data on employer establishments from the U.S. Census Longitudinal Business Database to identify location on or off American Indian reservations. We identify the per capita establishment count and jobs in reservation-based employer establishments for most federally recognized reservations. Comparisons to nearby non-reservation areas in the lower 48 states across 18 industries reveal that reservations have a similar sectoral distribution of employer establishments but have significantly fewer of them in nearly all sectors, especially when the area population is below 15,000 (as it is on the vast majority of reservations and for the majority of the reservation population). By contrast, the total number of jobs provided by reservation establishments is, on average, at par with or somewhat higher than in nearby county areas but is concentrated among casino-related and government employers. An implication is that average job numbers per establishment are higher in these sectors on reservations, including those with populations below 15,000, while the remaining industries are typically sparser within reservations (in firm count and jobs per capita). Geographic and demographic factors, such as population density and per capita income, statistically account for some but not all of these differences.
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Locally Owned Bank Commuting Zone Concentration and Employer Start-Ups in Metropolitan, Micropolitan and Non-Core Rural Commuting Zones from 1970-2010
August 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-34
Access to financial capital is vital for the sustainability of the local business sector in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan communities. Recent research on the restructuring of the financial industry from local owned banks to interstate conglomerates has raised questions about the impact on rural economies. In this paper, we begin our exploration of the Market Concentration Hypothesis and the Local Bank Hypothesis. The former proposes that there is a negative relationship between the percent of banks that are locally owned in the local economy and the rate of business births and continuations, and a positive effect on business deaths, while that latter proposes that there is a positive relationship between the percent of banks that are locally owned in the local economy and the rate of business births and continuations, and a negative effect on business deaths. To examine these hypotheses, we examine the impact of bank ownership concentration (percent of banks that are locally owned in a commuting zone) on business establishment births and deaths in metropolitan, micropolitan and non-core rural commuting zones. We employ panel regression models for the 1980-2010 time frame, demonstrating robustness to several specifications and spatial spillover effects. We find that local bank concentration is positively related to business dynamism in rural commuting zones, providing support to the importance of relational lending in rural areas, while finding support for the importance of market concentration in urban areas. The implications of this research are important for rural sociology, regional economics, and finance.
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COMMUNITY DETERMINANTS OF IMMIGRANT SELF-EMPLOYMENT: HUMAN CAPITAL SPILLOVERS AND ETHNIC ENCLAVES
April 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-21
I find evidence that human capital spillovers have positive effects on the proclivity of low human capital immigrants to self-employ. Human capital spillovers within an ethnic community can increase the self-employment propensity of its members by decreasing the costs associated with starting and running a business (especially, transaction costs and information costs). Immigrants who do not speak English and those with little formal education are more likely to be self-employed if they reside in an ethnic community boasting higher human capital. On the other hand, the educational attainment of co-ethnics does not appear to affect the self-employment choices of immigrants with a post-secondary education to become self-employed. Further analysis suggests that immigrants in communities with more human capital choose industries that are more capital-intensive. Overall, the results suggest that the communities in which immigrants reside influences their self-employment decisions. For low-skilled immigrants who face high costs to learning English and/or acquiring more education, these human capital spillovers may serve as an alternative resource of information and labor mobility.
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