CREAT: Census Research Exploration and Analysis Tool

County-Level Estimates of the Employment Prospects of Low-Skill Workers

July 2000

Abstract

Document Tags and Keywords

Similar Working Papers Similarity between working papers are determined by an unsupervised neural network model know as Doc2Vec.

Doc2Vec is a model that represents entire documents as fixed-length vectors, allowing for the capture of semantic meaning in a way that relates to the context of words within the document. The model learns to associate a unique vector with each document while simultaneously learning word vectors, enabling tasks such as document classification, clustering, and similarity detection by preserving the order and structure of words. The document vectors are compared using cosine similarity/distance to determine the most similar working papers. Papers identified with 🔥 are in the top 20% of similarity.

The 10 most similar working papers to the working paper 'County-Level Estimates of the Employment Prospects of Low-Skill Workers' are listed below in order of similarity.

• Working Paper

  
  
  Transitions in Welfare Participation and Female Headship
  

  February 2004

  Authors: David C Ribar, John Fitzgerald

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-04-01

  This study uses data from the 1990, 1992, 1993, and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine how welfare policies and local economic conditions contribute to women's transitions into and out of female headship and into and out of welfare participation. It also examines whether welfare participation is directly associated with longer spells of headship. The study employs a simultaneous hazards approach that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity in all of its transition models and for the endogeneity of welfare participation in its headship model. The estimation results indicate that welfare participation significantly reduces the chances of leaving female headship. The estimates also reveal that more generous welfare benefits contribute indirectly to headship by increasing the chances that mothers will enter welfare. More generous Earned Income Tax Credit benefits are associated with longer spells of headship, nonheadship, and welfare participation and nonparticipation. Other measures of welfare policies, including indicators for the adoption of welfare waivers and the implementation of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families programs, are generally not significantly associated with headship or welfare receipt. Better economic opportunities are estimated to increase headship but reduce welfare participation among unmarried mothers.
  View Full Paper PDF

  ---

• Working Paper

  
  
  Introduction of Head Start and Maternal Labor Supply: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design
  

  January 2016

  Authors: Cuiping Long

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-16-35

  I use the non-public decennial censuses in 1970 to investigate the effect of the Head Start program on maternal labor supply and schooling in its early years. I exploit a discontinuity in county-level Head Start funding beginning in the late 1960s to explore differences in countylevel maternal employment and maternal schooling. The results provide suggestive evidence that the more availability of Head Start led to an increase the nursery school enrollment of children and a decrease in maternal labor supply. In addition, the ITT estimates imply a relatively large, negative effect of enrollment on maternal labor supply. However, the estimates are somewhat sensitive to addition of covariates and the standard errors are also large to draw firm inferences.
  View Full Paper PDF

  ---

• Working Paper

  
  
  The Impact of Welfare Waivers on Female Headship Decisions
  

  February 2003

  Authors: David C Ribar, John Fitzgerald

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-03-03

  While much of the focus of recent welfare reforms has been on moving recipients from welfare to work, many reforms were also directed at affecting decisions about living arrangements, pregnancy, marriage and cohabitation. This paper focuses on women's decisions to become or remain unmarried mothers, that is, female heads of families. We assess the impact of welfare reform waivers on those decisions while controlling for confounding local economic and social contextual conditions. We pool the 1990, 1992, and 1993 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) which span the calendar time when many states began adopting welfare waivers. For its descriptors of local labor market conditions, the project uses skill specific measures of wages and employment opportunities for counties. We estimate models for levels of female headship and proportional hazard models for entry and exit from female headship. In the hazards, we employ stratified Cox partial likelihood methods and investigate the use of state fixed effects or state stratified hazard models to control for unmeasured state influences. Based on data through 1995, we find limited evidence that workencouraging waivers had a beneficial effect by reducing female headship of families. We find little evidence that family caps, teenage coresidence requirements or termination limits will reduce the number of single-parent families.
  View Full Paper PDF

  ---

• Working Paper

  
  
  Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response
  

  September 2015

  Authors: Andrew Foote, Michel Grosz, Ann Stevens

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-15-25

  Large shocks to local labor markets cause lasting changes to communities and their residents. We examine four main channels through which the local labor force adjusts following mass layoffs: in- and out-migration, retirement, and disability insurance enrollment. We show that these channels account for over half of the labor force reductions following a mass layoff event. By measuring the residual difference between these channels and labor force change, we also show that labor force non-participation grew in the period during and after the Great Recession. This result highlights the growing importance of non-participation as a response to labor demand shocks.
  View Full Paper PDF

  ---

• Working Paper

  
  
  The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income
  

  January 2017

  Authors: Bryan A. Stuart

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-17-52

  This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980-1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential Census data, I estimate generalized difference-in-differences regressions that exploit variation across counties in the severity of the recession and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. I find that children born in counties with a more severe recession are less likely to obtain a college degree and, as adults, earn less income and experience higher poverty rates. The negative effects on college graduation are most severe and essentially constant for individuals age 0-13 in 1979, suggesting that the underlying mechanisms are a decline in childhood human capital or a long-term decline in parental resources to pay for college. I find little evidence that states with more generous or more progressive transfer systems mitigated these long-run effects. The magnitude of my estimates and the large number of affected individuals suggest that the 1980-1982 recession depresses aggregate economic output today.
  View Full Paper PDF

  ---

• Working Paper

  
  
  Spatial Mismatch or Racial Mismatch?
  

  June 2007

  Authors: Judith Hellerstein, David Neumark, Melissa McInerney

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-07-16

  We contrast the spatial mismatch hypothesis with what we term the racial mismatch hypothesis - that the problem is not a lack of jobs, per se, where blacks live, but a lack of jobs into which blacks are hired, whether because of discrimination or labor market networks in which race matters. We first report new evidence on the spatial mismatch hypothesis, using data from Census Long-Form respondents. We construct direct measures of the presence of jobs in detailed geographic areas, and find that these job density measures are related to employment of black male residents in ways that would be predicted by the spatial mismatch hypothesis - in particular that spatial mismatch is primarily an issue for low-skilled black male workers. We then look at racial mismatch, by estimating the effects of job density measures that are disaggregated by race. We find that it is primarily black job density that influences black male employment, whereas white job density has little if any influence on their employment. This evidence implies that space alone plays a relatively minor role in low black male employment rates.
  View Full Paper PDF

  ---

• Working Paper

  
  
  WHY IMMIGRANTS LEAVE NEW DESTINATIONS AND WHERE DO THEY GO?
  

  June 2013

  Authors: Mary M. Kritz, Douglas T. Gurak, Min-Ah Lee

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-13-32

  Immigrants have a markedly higher likelihood of migrating internally if they live in new estinations. This paper looks at why that pattern occurs and at how immigrants' out-migration to new versus traditional destinations responds to their labor market economic and industrial structure, nativity origins and concentration, geographic region, and 1995 labor market type. Confidential data from the 2000 and 1990 decennial censuses are used for the analysis. Metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas are categorized into 741 local labor markets and classified as new or traditional based on their nativity concentrations of immigrants from the largest Asian, Caribbean and Latin American origins. The analysis showed that immigrants were less likely to migrate to new destinations if they lived in areas of higher nativity concentration, foreign-born population growth, and wages but more likely to make that move if they were professionals, agricultural or blue collar workers, highly educated, fluent in English, and lived in other new destinations. While most immigrants are more likely to migrate to new rather than traditional destinations that outcome differs sharply for immigrants from different origins and for some immigrants, particularly those from the Caribbean, the dispersal process to new destinations has barely started.
  View Full Paper PDF

  ---

• Working Paper

  
  
  State and Local Determinants of Employment Outcomes among Individuals with Disabilities
  

  March 2016

  Authors: Andrew Houtenville, Purvi Sevak, John O'Neill, Debra L. Brucker

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-16-21

  In the United States, employment rates among individuals with disabilities are persistently low but vary substantially. In this study, we examine the relationship between employment outcomes and features of the state and county physical, economic, and policy environment among a national sample of individuals with disabilities. To do so, we merge a set of state- and county-level environmental variables with data from the 2009'2011 American Community Survey accessed in a U.S. Census Research Data Center. We estimate regression models of employment, work hours, and earnings as a function of health conditions, personal characteristics, and these environmental features. We find that certain environmental variables are significantly associated with employment outcomes. Although the estimated importance of environmental variables is small relative to individual health and personal characteristics, our results suggest that these variables may present barriers or facilitators to employment that can explain some geographic variation in employment outcomes across the United States.
  View Full Paper PDF

  ---

• Working Paper

  
  
  Granular Income Inequality and Mobility using IDDA: Exploring Patterns across Race and Ethnicity
  

  November 2023

  Authors: Abigail Wozniak, John Voorheis, Kevin Rinz, Illenin Kondo, Natalie Gubbay, Brandon Hawkins

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-23-55

  Shifting earnings inequality among U.S. workers over the last five decades has been widely stud ied, but understanding how these shifts evolve across smaller groups has been difficult. Publicly available data sources typically only ensure representative data at high levels of aggregation, so they obscure many details of earnings distributions for smaller populations. We define and construct a set of granular statistics describing income distributions, income mobility and con ditional income growth for a large number of subnational groups in the U.S. for a two-decade period (1998-2019). In this paper, we use the resulting data to explore the evolution of income inequality and mobility for detailed groups defined by race and ethnicity. We find that patterns identified from the universe of tax filers and W-2 recipients that we observe differ in important ways from those that one might identify in public sources. The full set of statistics that we construct is available publicly as the Income Distributions and Dynamics in America, or IDDA, data set.
  View Full Paper PDF

  ---

• Working Paper

  
  
  A Warm Embrace or the Cold Shoulder: Wage and Employment Outcomes in Ethnic Enclaves
  

  April 2008

  Authors: Roberto Pedace, Stephanie Rohn

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-08-09

  This paper examines how immigrant enclaves influence labor market outcomes. We examine the effect of ethnic concentration on both immigrant earnings and employment in high immigration states using the non-public use, 1-in-6 sample of the 2000 U.S. Census. Although we find that there is some variability in the estimated enclave effects, they exhibit an overall negative impact. Male and female immigrants from several ethnic groups tend to earn lower wages when residing in areas with larger ethnic concentrations. Similarly, for employment, most of the statistically significant effects are negative, although much smaller than the enclave impacts on earnings.
  View Full Paper PDF

  ---