In the United States, employment rates among individuals with disabilities are persistently low but vary substantially. In this study, we examine the relationship between employment outcomes and features of the state and county physical, economic, and policy environment among a national sample of individuals with disabilities. To do so, we merge a set of state- and county-level environmental variables with data from the 2009'2011 American Community Survey accessed in a U.S. Census Research Data Center. We estimate regression models of employment, work hours, and earnings as a function of health conditions, personal characteristics, and these environmental features. We find that certain environmental variables are significantly associated with employment outcomes. Although the estimated importance of environmental variables is small relative to individual health and personal characteristics, our results suggest that these variables may present barriers or facilitators to employment that can explain some geographic variation in employment outcomes across the United States.
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Complex Survey Questions and the Impact of Enumeration Procedures: Census/American Community Survey Disability Questions
April 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-10
This paper explores challenges relating to the identification of the population with disabilities,focusing on Census Bureau efforts using the 2000 Decennial Census Long-Form (Census 2000) and 2000-2005 American Community Survey (ACS). In particular, the analyses explore the impact of survey methods on responses to the work limitation (i.e., employment disability) question in these two Census products. Building on the research of Stern (2003) and Stern and Brault (2005), we look for further evidence of misreporting of an employment disability by specific sub-populations using the participation in the Supplemental Security Income program as an exogenous employment disability status indicator along with a subset of ACS disability questions. We expand upon these earlier studies by examining both false-positive and falsenegative reports of employment disability by implementing logit estimations to examine the role of respondent/enumerator error on the accuracy of the employment disability response. In this manner, we enhance our understanding of Census 2000 and ACS responses to employment disability questions through an exploration of the role of enumeration procedures in two types of misclassifications, as well as by evaluating existing data and estimates to uncover characteristics that might make an individual more likely to misreport an employment disability.
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Geographic Disparities in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementia Mortality in the US: Comparing Impacts of Place of Birth and Place of Residence
January 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-11
Objective: Building on the hypothesis that early-life exposures might influence the onset of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementia (ADRD), this study delves into geographic variations in ADRD mortality in the US. By considering both state of residence and state of birth, we aim to discern the comparative significance of these geospatial factors.
Methods: We conducted a secondary data analysis of the National Longitudinal Mortality Study (NLMS), that has 3.5 million records from 1973-2011 and over 0.5 million deaths. We focused on individuals born in or before 1930, tracked in NLMS cohorts from 1979-2000. Employing multi-level logistic regression, with individuals nested within states of residence and/or states of birth, we assessed the role of geographical factors in ADRD mortality variation.
Results: We found that both state of birth and state of residence account for a modest portion of ADRD mortality variation. Specifically, state of residence explains 1.19% of the total variation in ADRD mortality, whereas state of birth explains only 0.6%. When combined, both state of residence and state of birth account for only 1.05% of the variation, suggesting state of residence could matter more in ADRD mortality outcomes.
Conclusion: Findings of this study suggest that state of residence explains more variation in ADRD mortality than state of birth. These results indicate that factors in later life may present more impactful intervention points for curbing ADRD mortality. While early-life environmental exposures remain relevant, their role as primary determinants of ADRD in later life appears to be less pronounced in this study.
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Did Vietnam Veterans Get Sicker in the 1990s? The Complicated Effects of Military Service on Self-Reported Health
August 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-19
The veterans disability compensation (VDC) program, which provides a monthly stipend to disabled veterans, is the third largest American disability insurance program. Since the late 1990s, VDC growth has been driven primarily by an increase in claims from Vietnam veterans, raising concerns about costs as well as health. We use the draft lottery to study the long-term effects of Vietnam-era military service on health and work in the 2000 Census. These estimates show no significant overall effects on employment or work-related disability status, with a small effect on non-work-related disability for whites. On the other hand, estimates for white men with low earnings potential show a large negative impact on employment and a marked increase in non-work-related disability rates. The differential impact of Vietnam-era service on low-skill men cannot be explained by more combat or war-theatre exposure for the least educated, leaving the relative attractiveness of VDC for less skilled men and the work disincentives embedded in the VDC system as a likely explanation.
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Long-Run Adult Socio-economic Outcomes
from In Utero Airborne Lead Exposure
November 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-53
As a neurotoxin, early exposure to lead has long been assumed to affect socioeconomic out-comes well into adulthood. However, the empirical literature documenting such effects has been limited. This study documents the long-term effects of in utero exposure to air lead on adult socio-economic outcomes, including earnings, disabilities, employment, public assistance, and education, using US survey and administrative data. Specifically, we match individuals in the 2000 US Decennial Census and 2001-2014 American Community Surveys to average lead concentrations in the individual's birth county during his/her 9 months in utero. We find a 0.5 'g/m3 decrease in air lead, representing the average 1975-85 change resulting from the passage of the U.S. Clean Air Act, is associated with an increase in earnings of 3.5%, or a present value, at birth, of $21,400 in lifetime earnings. Decomposing this effect, we find greater exposure to lead in utero is associated with an increase in disabilities in adulthood, an increase in receiving public assistance, and a decrease in employment. Looking at effects by sex, long-term effects for girls seem to fall on participation in the formal labor market, whereas for boys it appears to fall more on hours worked. This is the first study to document such long-term effects from lead using US data. We estimate the present value in 2020, from all earnings impacts from 1975 forward, to be $4,230 Billion using a discount rate of 3%. In 2020 alone, the benefits are $252 B, or about 1.2% of GDP. Thus, our estimates imply the Clean Air Act's lead phase out is still returning a national dividend of over 1% every year.
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Differences in Disability Insurance Allowance Rates
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-54
Allowance rates for disability insurance applications vary by race and ethnicity, but it is unclear to what extent these differences are artifacts of other differing socio-economic and health characteristics, or selection issues in SSA's race and ethnicity data. This paper uses the 2015 American Community Survey linked to 2015-2019 SSA administrative data to investigate DI application allowance rates among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, and Hispanic applicants aged 25-65. The analysis uses regression, propensity score matching, and inverse probability weighting to estimate differences in allowance rates among applicants who are similar on observable characteristics. Relative to raw comparisons, differences by race and ethnicity in multivariate analyses are substantially smaller in magnitude and are generally not statistically significant.
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Transitions in Welfare Participation and Female Headship
February 2004
Working Paper Number:
CES-04-01
This study uses data from the 1990, 1992, 1993, and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine how welfare policies and local economic conditions contribute to women's transitions into and out of female headship and into and out of welfare participation. It also examines whether welfare participation is directly associated with longer spells of headship. The study employs a simultaneous hazards approach that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity in all of its transition models and for the endogeneity of welfare participation in its headship model. The estimation results indicate that welfare participation significantly reduces the chances of leaving female headship. The estimates also reveal that more generous welfare benefits contribute indirectly to headship by increasing the chances that mothers will enter welfare. More generous Earned Income Tax Credit benefits are associated with longer spells of headship, nonheadship, and welfare participation and nonparticipation. Other measures of welfare policies, including indicators for the adoption of welfare waivers and the implementation of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families programs, are generally not significantly associated with headship or welfare receipt. Better economic opportunities are estimated to increase headship but reduce welfare participation among unmarried mothers.
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Associations Between Public Housing and Individual Earnings in New Orleans
October 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-32
This study uses a sample of the civilian labor force aged 16-64 constructed from the Decennial Census and American Community Survey, along with data from the HUD dataset Picture of Subsidized Households, to compare the likelihood for job earnings in relation to public housing developments in the New Orleans MSA before and after Hurricane Katrina. Results from a series of hierarchical linear models (HLM) indicate significant relationships are altered between time periods, including those from public and mixed-income developments, suggesting a fluid relationship between neighborhoods and economic outcomes during physical, demographic and economic restructuring.
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The Work Disincentive Effects of the Disability Insurance Program in the 1990s
February 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-05
In this paper we evaluate the work disincentive effects of the Disability Insurance program during the 1990s. To accomplish this we construct a new large data set with detailed information on DI application and award decisions and use two different econometric evaluation methods. First, we apply a comparison group approach proposed by John Bound to estimate an upper bound for the work disincentive effect of the current DI program. Second, we adopt a Regression-Discontinuity approach that exploits a particular feature of the DI eligibility determination process to provide a credible point estimate of the impact of the DI program on labor supply for an important subset of DI applicants. Our estimates indicate that during the 1990s the labor force participation rate of DI beneficiaries would have been at most 20 percentage points higher had none received benefits. In addition, we find even smaller labor supply responses for the subset of 'marginal' applicants whose disability determination is based on vocational factors.
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High Labor Force Attachment, but Few Social Ties? Life-Course Predictors of Women's Receipt of Childcare Subsidies
September 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-26
The U.S. federal Child Care and Development Fund (CCDF) childcare subsidy represents the largest source of means-tested assistance for U.S. families with low incomes. The CCDF subsidy aims to help mothers with low incomes gain employment and education, with implications for women's labor force participation, and the wellbeing of their children. Because recipients of the CCDF subsidy are either already employed, or seek the subsidy with the goal of gaining employment or schooling, this group may represent the public assistance recipients who are best able to succeed in the low-wage labor market. However, existing research on the CCDF observes recipients only after they begin receiving the subsidy, thus giving an incomplete picture of whether recipients may select into subsidy receipt, and how subsidy recipiency is situated in women's broader work and family trajectories. My study links administrative records from the CCDF to the American Community Survey (ACS) to construct a longitudinal data set from 38 states that observes CCDF recipients in the 1-2 years before they first received the subsidy. I compare women who subsequently received the CCDF subsidy to other women with low incomes in the ACS who did not go on to receive the subsidy, with a total of roughly 641,000 individuals. I find that CCDF recipients are generally positively-selected on employment history and educational attainment, but appear to have lower levels of social support than non-recipients.
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The Rural/Urban Volunteering Divide
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-42
Are rural residents more likely to volunteer than those living in urban places? Although early sociological theory posited that rural residents were more likely to experience social bonds connecting them to their community, increasing their odds of volunteer engagement, empirical support is limited. Drawing upon the full population of rural and urban respondents to the United States Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) Volunteering Supplement (2002-2015), we found that rural respondents are more likely to report volunteering compared to urban respondents, although these differences are decreasing over time. Moreover, we found that propensities for rural and urban volunteerism vary based on differences in both individual and place-based characteristics; further, the size of these effects differ across rural and urban places. These findings have important implications for theory and empirical analysis.
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